450
FXUS61 KILN 141254
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
854 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary and slow moving upper level
energy will bring periodic showers, with a chance for especially
afternoon/early evening thunderstorms for the next few days.
Temperatures will remain near or just below normal this weekend,
with a warming trend expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A frontal boundary extending from central Indiana into northwest
Ohio will sag slowly southeast through the day today. Meanwhile, a
weakening mid level trough axis with some embedded mid level energy
will shift slowly east across the mid Ohio Valley today. This will
allow for showers and embedded thunderstorms to become more
widespread across our area as weak instability begins to develop
into this afternoon. Given the weak instability, any severe threat
looks to be minimal. However, it will be tough to rule out some
locally heavy rainfall with any training showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As the surface boundary sinks south of the Ohio River this evening
and with the loss of daytime instability, precip chances diminish to
mainly just south central Ohio/NE Kentucky, with widely scattered
activity for the most part. Overnight lows in the low 60s north,
upper 60s south.

The weak upper level trough will continue to affect the region on
Sunday, with mostly showery activity to start the day, spreading in
coverage with isolated to scattered thunderstorms again as diurnal
instability comes into play. Unfavorable low to mid level lapse rates
and lack of dynamic forcing should limit overall thunderstorm
strength. Continued muggy conditions with highs in the upper
70s/lower 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday evening, the upper level trough that had been moving
eastward through the region will have largely washed out, leaving a
relatively nebulous flow pattern in place over the Ohio Valley. The
boundary layer flow will actually be light and northeasterly in
nature, with higher theta-e air shunted slightly to the south and
southeast. Any leftover showers and storms from Sunday will be
diminishing and exiting to the southeast, leaving drier and slightly
less cloudy conditions for the overnight hours going into Monday
morning.

The pattern will change a bit heading into next week, with a more
progressive scenario beginning to set up over the region. This setup
will be characterized by persistent southwesterly boundary-layer
flow, and generally zonal (west to west-southwest) flow aloft.
Increasing theta-e will bring greater heat and humidity each day
through Wednesday -- and Wednesday is forecast for highs in the mid
to upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. Heat indices may reach
the 90s on Wednesday, though this forecast does not have anything
near the 100-degree advisory criteria as of now.

Convective potential through the week remains somewhat uncertain in
terms of the details, but the overall pattern is one that will favor
storm development on occasion, particularly at peak diurnal timing.
With building instability and some increase in tropospheric wind
flow, some severe weather threat could end up developing. The one
feature in this pattern that appears to be a little more pronounced
is a wave currently forecast to move into the Great Lakes Wednesday
night, which could present a little more of an organized threat of
storms from late Wednesday into the overnight hours -- certainly
upstream of the ILN forecast area, and possibly including the ILN
forecast area. Forecast specifics become even less clear from
Thursday onward, as there are differences in the timing of the
aforementioned wave and an associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR to IFR ceilings spreading through the region, so have kept IFR
to near IFR conditions for the next couple of hours under pretty
stagnant flow regime. Precip band and the surface boundary will
slowly sink south though the region, mainly in the 15-22z timeframe.
Kept mention of thunderstorms to a Prob30 in the limited instability
and forcing.

Once the boundary drops south of the Ohio river, MVFR to IFR ceilings
will follow, with KDAY/KILN/KCMH/KLCK the most likely locations for
IFR.

OUTLOOK...Several rounds of storms will be possible Sunday through
Wednesday, causing periods of MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings and
visibilities.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...JDR