895
FXUS61 KILN 220533
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
133 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop today ahead of a
cold front moving through the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Mid level energy moving through the base of an upper level trough
over the Great Lakes region will help push a cold front east across
our area today. Some spotty shower activity will be possible through
mid morning, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will
develop ahead of the front as we destabilize late this morning and
into this afternoon. The models have trended a bit faster with the
front, so the better chances of pcpn this afternoon looks to be
across our eastern areas.

Deep layer shear will not be all that impressive initially, but it
will tick up a bit into the 20-30 knot range through mid to late
afternoon. This could lead to a few strong to severe storms -- with
the best chance for this across mainly our eastern areas where the
instability and deep layer shear will be somewhat better. Damaging
winds would be the main threat along with possibly some hail as some
cooler air moves in aloft.

PWs will mainly be in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range so it will be tough
to rule out some locally heavy downpours. The storms should be
fairly progressive though and this should help limit any additional
flooding concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
An upper level disturbance will move through the region today as an
associated cold front moves east through the Ohio Valley. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front late this
morning into mid afternoon. Pcpn will then taper off from the west
through mid to late afternoon as drier air moves in behind the front.

Southwest to west winds to around 10 knots or so will become more
northwesterly later this afternoon behind the front. Some wind gusts
to around 20 knots will also be possible for a few hours later this
afternoon on the backside of the front.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL