199
FXUS61 KILN 170513
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
113 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day through
Thursday. Drier weather is then expected on Friday, with warmer and
more humid conditions expected next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
East-west oriented frontal boundary has nudged slightly north to a
position across east-central Ohio and the southern I-70 corridor.
Moderate instability has developed across the area with BL CAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG. Very moist environment with ILN/s PWat of 1.73
inches. Favorable moisture advection continues with PWat values
increasing to between 1.8 to 2 inches across the area overnight into
Tuesday morning. Coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms to
increase from the southwest overnight hours as a mid level shortwave
moves into the Ohio Valley providing modest deep layer ascent.

The front will remain the focus for the best coverage of convection
with the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding. Some
locations have the potential to observe 2 to 4 inches if storms train
over the same area.

Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday but should
begin to taper off from the northwest through the afternoon and into
the evening as the mid level trough axis moves east of our area.
Wind fields are a bit stronger on Tuesday which could lead to a few
stronger storms, but the main threat will continue to be locally
heavy rainfall as PWs will remain around 2 inches. Highs on Tuesday
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with lows Tuesday
night in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The local area is in between systems to start on Wednesday with the
remnants of a weak system still passing to the southeast and the
incoming surface low pressure and trough moving in from the
northwest. With the weak system lingering to the southeast, PoPs do
remain across south-central Ohio Wednesday morning before additional
thunderstorm development with the main system coming in from the
west Wednesday evening.

Severe threat Wednesday evening/night: As the weak system moves
away, cloud cover should clear enough Wednesday afternoon to allow
for plentiful heating across the warm sector ahead of the
approaching cold front. The biggest uncertainty with the severe
threat over the local area remains the timing of the best forcing
Wednesday evening and into the overnight. Hot and humid conditions
may be present over the local area Wednesday, but confidence is
fairly high that storm coverage may be quite limited due to the lack
of forcing. As thunderstorms form to the west late Wednesday
afternoon and into the evening, how organized these storms remain as
they enter the local area is the second bit of uncertainty. Wind
shear values will increase as the trough approaches, but with
instability decreasing, the threat likely decreases from west to
east Wednesday night.

Convective modes and potential solutions will be more readily
available tomorrow as high-resolution models extend into the
concerned timeframe.

Thursday: As the trough slows over the Great Lakes, showers and
thunderstorms remain a possibility into the afternoon on Thursday,
but primarily southeast of the I-71 corridor. Severe threat is
expected to be very low due to the lack of time for instability to
build across the local area. Temperatures are a few degrees cooler
Thursday afternoon with the cold front moving through, but the
humidity difference will be felt Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday-Monday: After the brief break from the humid conditions
Friday morning, the heat returns by Friday afternoon with the
humidity building into the weekend. A deep ridge of high pressure
builds over the Ohio Valley into the weekend, with temperatures
climbing close to 90 on Saturday with higher confidence in 90s for
Sunday and again on Monday. As the humidity returns, heat related
advisories may be needed with the highest confidence for Sunday and
Monday at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the TAF
period. One of the most likely chances for precipitation will be from
now through 12Z. Showers are expected at all TAF sites, and some
pockets of heavier rain (with MVFR to IFR conditions) are also
possible. Thunder will be isolated, so it has not been included in
the forecast for early this morning. If necessary, TSRA can be
amended into the forecast as confidence increases. In addition to the
precipitation, MVFR ceilings may also build into the area through
morning. A brief period of IFR is not out of the question.

There should be a general minimum in precipitation during the 12Z-18Z
time frame, with the MVFR ceilings lifting near the end of that
period. Additional showers and storms will then develop during the
afternoon. Coverage will be spotty, so there is no guarantee on
timing for any individual airport, and a PROB30 group has been
included with TSRA to cover this possibility.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, precipitation chances should diminish,
but MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected Wednesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will then be possible Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night, with MVFR to IFR conditions late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hatzos
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...McGinnis
AVIATION...Hatzos