089
FXUS61 KILN 251037
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
637 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warm and humid conditions return Sunday along with a chance for
showers and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)

Surface high pressure shifts east this weekend which will allow
warmer temperatures and higher dew points to move back into the area
from the south. A large mid level ridge builds over the Central US
with a northwesterly flow persisting thru the Great Lakes and Ohio
River Valley. This will be a favorable setup for ridge riders
as shower and thunderstorm chances increase early this week,

Rain chances remain low during the day on Sunday with lack of
forcing before increased rain chances develop Sunday night and into
early next week. A signal continues in the model solutions depicting
a potential period for increased storm activity Monday evening and
Monday night. Moderate instability may end up overlapping with
strong shear for late July. Potential exists for MCS development
across the Great Lakes tracking into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Details on exact timing and placement are uncertain at
this time without CAM guidance to resolve potential convection.

Additionally, storm chances on Sunday night cannot be ruled out with
favorable shear and instability in place and some guidance showing
at least some storm potential in the region. The best chance looks
to be north of I-70.

Also, the heat index may reach 95 to 100 degrees on Monday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extensive shield of mid and high clouds diminishing shifted off to
the east-southeast leaving mainly clear skies this morning. Light Winds
has led to some valley fog formation. KLUK may observed a brief
visibility restriction - which will improve quickly this morning.
Few to scattered cumulus clouds may develop during the afternoon with
a mid level cloud deck spread into the area. The main affects of a
disturbance look to stay southwest of the TAF sites. A period of MVFR
ceilings is likely overnight into early Sunday, with the best
potential over KCVG and KLUK.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday night and then again Monday
afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR