902
FXUS61 KILN 210651
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
251 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood watch extended through noon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
this morning. This may cause locally heavy rain to fall over
saturated ground.

2) Cooler weather will prevail through the week. More showers will
occur Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Low level jet will push east into the area through daybreak and then
weaken as the morning progresses. So showers and thunderstorms west
of the region will continue into the area. Precipitable water remains
1.8-1.9 inches and the warm cloud depth is around 4 km. So this
activity will have the potential to produce more locally heavy rain,
although all indications are that it should be weakening as it moves
into/across the region. Nonetheless, with the ground saturated from
previous rainfall, felt that it was prudent to extend the flood watch
through noon.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Cooler airmass will continue to settle across the area today. Short
wave tracking across the country will deepen and become a closed low
as it moves through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will amplify
an inverted surface trough along the western slopes of the
Appalachians. These features will bring some showers to the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the greater chance being in eastern
counties.

The closed low will still be progressive until it gets off the
Atlantic coast at which point it will meander. This will result in an
extended dry period for the area during the latter part of the week
into the weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR ceilings will spread across all terminals early in the period.
Showers and thunderstorms west of the region at the start of the
period will move across the terminals between 10Z and 15Z. There are
some indications that ceilings could lift to the MVFR threshold at
some locations towards 00Z, although that may only be for a limited
time and confidence in improvement is low.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue and may extend into
Thursday morning. Visibility restrictions also possible Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...None.
IN...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35