071
FXUS61 KILN 171755
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 PM EDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Added fog to the forecast tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold
front that will move through the region this afternoon.

2) Another cold front will move through Wednesday night bringing
below normal temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...


KEY MESSAGE 1)

Active weather pattern continues today with embedded disturbances
rippling thru the westerly mid level flow. Disturbance moving thru
the south this morning has quickly pass off to the east with it`s
associated precipitation ending.

Moderate instability has developed across the region ahead of
a surface wave over west central Ohio. This wave is expected to
translate slowly east with an associated cold front tracking thru the
area late this aftn into early evening. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of this system.

The deeper plume of precipitable water will be decreasing and
shunting off to the southeast, although values will still be quite
high. Also, deep warm cloud depths will remain in place, so locally
heavy rain will still be possible - especially over
eastern/southeastern counties. QPF of 1 to 2 inches is possible with
locally up to 3 inches prior to ending early this evening.

Environment is marginal for severe storms, although cannot rule out
a few stronger storms - with strong to damaging wind being the
primary threat. Storms end last - early this evening in south central
Ohio and northern Kentucky. A signal exists for some fog development
overnight. Have added fog to the forecast with the best threat for
dense fog over eastern portions of ILN/s area where the best low
level moisture lingers.


KEY MESSAGE 2)

Dew points will drop back into the 60s in the wake of today`s cold
front, and temperatures will fall to or a bit below normal. Moisture
will increase on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front,
although not to the degree that has been the case for much of the
past week. The front will sag through the area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning as minor impulses of energy move through the base of
a long wave trough that slowly shifts east. Showers and possibly
some storms could linger in southern counties into Thursday night
when a more energetic short wave move southeast into the Tennessee
Valley giving the front a stronger push south. After this front
passes, a northwest flow develops and even cooler conditions will
prevail through the end of the week with highs in the mid 70s to
around 80 and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Some lingering MVFR ceilings continue over the central Ohio TAF sites
while all other locations have improved to VFR. Moderate instability
has developed across the region ahead of a surface wave over west
central Ohio. This wave is expected to translate slowly east with an
associated cold front tracking thru the area late this aftn into
early evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop along and ahead of this system affecting all TAF sites. Some
of the showers and storms will contain brief heavy downpours with
MVFR to IFR conditions.

All precipitation ends by early evening and clouds scatter out.
A signal exists for fog development overnight with low level moisture
lingering and light winds. Have MVFR vsby restrictions at all sites
with IFR conditions at KLUK valley location. Fog improves early
Tuesday with a VFR cumulus cloud deck developing.


OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...AR