Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
149 FXUS61 KILN 162353 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 753 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Reduced severe threat in the near term period. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur early this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. 2) A cold front will slowly move through the region tonight into Monday with another cold front moving through Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) The severe threat will continue to decrease this evening as the main forcing moves off to the east and convection becomes more scattered. Can`t rule out brief heavy rainfall due to the moist environment but in general, hazardous weather will continue to decrease this evening. KEY MESSAGE 2) Low amplitude short wave will push a cold front into the area late tonight. Due to the orientation of the front from north-northeast to south-southwest it will be slow to move through the region. The potential for showers and storms will persist until this front clears. Some CAM solutions show better focus for storms across the southern counties late tonight into Monday morning. Pattern changes as broad long wave trough will move into the Great Lakes toward mid week. This will push another cold front through the region Wednesday night. Expect a change in air mass with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to lower 60s for Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Weak cold front will push through the terminals late tonight. While CAMs aren`t overly confident, have included a PROB30 for isolated storms near the front. Behind the front, low clouds will likely develop as low level moisture condenses in the slightly cooler air. Can`t rule out a few isolated storms Monday afternoon. However, coverage should be less than today. OUTLOOK..MVFR to IFR conditions possible in fog Monday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...