Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
184 FXUS61 KILN 030017 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 717 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance exits southeast of the region providing decreasing clouds tonight. A couple of weak systems will move across the Great Lakes through the middle of the upcoming week, but the middle Ohio Valley will likely stay dry. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Weak lift north of a mid level low moving across the Tennessee Valley will keep persistent clouds across our area through the evening... along with patchy drizzle or very light rain in our southeastern counties. Drier air will move in tonight. A very weak pressure gradient at the surface will cause light winds. Good radiational cooling conditions late will allow temperatures to fall off into the 30s. Valley fog is likely to develop in prone areas toward morning. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... The first in a series of fast-moving shortwaves embedded in zonal flow will shift across the Great Lakes on Monday. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of the associated surface low will cause southwest winds to increase with a few gusts in the 20-30 mph range from midday into the afternoon. Afternoon highs will peak in the upper 50s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Behind the system, surface high pressure will build into the region Monday night. Temperatures will drop quickly into the 30s, with lows reaching the 30-35 range by early Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface high pressure will be in place across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing dry and seasonable conditions to the region. We will then start to get into some return flow through the day on Wednesday as the high moves off to our east. Highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees, warming to highs in the mid to upper 60s for Wednesday. In zonal flow aloft, mid level energy will move quickly out of the Rockies on Thursday and across the eastern CONUS Friday into Saturday. This will help some weak troughing develop over the Ohio Valley and push a weak associated cold front east across the region. Southerly flow ahead of this will pull a fair amount of moisture and perhaps some weak instabilities northward into our area. As a result, expect showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to spread east across the region through the day on Friday before tapering off from the west Friday night. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s but warm up again on Friday to highs in the mid to upper 60s. Some stronger mid level energy will drop down across the Great Lakes region through the weekend, helping to carve out a deeper trough across the eastern CONUS by early next week. This will lead to the potential for some additional pops Saturday night into Sunday as a cooler airmass settles into the region. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mid level low moving thru the TN Valley to continue moving to ESE with shortwave ridging working into the area overnight. Residual VFR clouds between 4000 and 5000 feet continue across the area. Expect these clouds to scatter out late this evening as the mid- level low pulls away to the our southeast. Light winds this evening may show a slight uptick late with the approach of a shortwave across the Great Lakes. Some fog or stratus will be possible - with the best chance and coverage across the southeast where winds are expected to be lightest. Have a mention of MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions at KLUK valley location and MVFR at KILN. On Monday, a progressive shortwave will shift across the Great Lakes. A tightening pressure gradient will allow for a few southwesterly gusts up to 25 kts during the afternoon. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...AR