255
FXUS61 KILN 240655
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
155 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will exit east this morning as an upper ridge
axis crosses over the region. Behind the breakdown of the upper ridge
will be a rapid and deep increase of moisture on southerly flow. An
upper level shortwave in the Midwest will help push this moist air
ahead of it, and rain will develop late tonight and persist through
much of Tuesday as the shortwave crosses our area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
After morning fog and low stratus break up, high cloud cover with a
light southeast wind will gradually lower through the day. Highs
through this filtered and thickening sunshine will reach the mid 50s
for the bulk of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As discussed in the synopsis, moisture ahead of and forcing with an
upper shortwave will bring rain to the region, generally after
midnight and spreading sw-ne. A steady rainfall will be likely for
the bulk of the CWA, and stronger pockets of heavier rain are
expected in a sw-ne orientation.

The upper s/w is the dominating factor in this upcoming weather and
when it passes to the east, the threat of heavier rainfall will end
pretty quickly during the day Tuesday from w-e. Lingering pockets of
light rain are expected through the overnight as a surface gradient
passes w-e, exiting by daybreak. This gradient will be more noted as
an westward directional shift and increase in wind speed.

Tonights lows will be mild and in the upper 40s to the southwest,
closer to 40 in the Hocking Hills where the blanketing cloud cover
is expected later. Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees on either side
of 60, coolest along and n of the I-70 corridor.

As the windshift occurs, cooler air will be advected in from the
west. Lows by Wednesday morning should be in the mid-upper 30s in the
west/northwest, mid 40s in the eastern CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The largest discrepancy in the forecast occurs on Wednesday as I
would expect a minimal temperature recovery on the order of 3-4
degrees from morning lows, if not a 1-2 degree buffer with falling
temperatures through the day. Forecast shows the falling temperatures
but is overly-generous in expecting some type of a rebound. By
nightfall, temperatures will be in the 30s. Basically, wherever we
start the day will be the daytime high.

Cool air continues to be driven into the region until Friday night
when a surface high settles in and upper flow becomes more westerly.
Highs in the 30s with lows in the 20s will be the end result of this
cold air intrusion from Wed night through Sat. Teens to near 20
degrees on Thursday and Friday nights will bring the coldest air of
the season so far.

The high axis moves east and return flow sets up in the region,
bringing increased moisture and "warmer" temperatures starting
Saturday night. By this time, models have large discrepancies.
Another round of steady rainfall is possible and indicated in the
forecast beyond Saturday but this is not a foregone conclusion. If
another soaking rain does hit us, the time frame will be certainly
more narrow than the forecast is initially indicating.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An area of low stratus with LIFR cigs and IFR vsbys along Ohio River
midway between SDF and CVG will see it`s ene expansion slow and come
to a halt before ever reaching CVG. KLUK and the region along and
south of the Ohio will see normal valley fog with KLUK tanking to L
or VLIFR.

Light and variable wind will pick up from the southeast in the
morning and be under 8kt through the day. High cloud cover will
stream in from the west and lower in the late day/evening to an alto
deck.

Precip will spread sw-ne into the region late in the period,
primarily affecting the longer term CVG forecast. However, there are
indications that it could be developing along a subtle sw-ne oriented
boundary and begin further into the CWA at or a little before 06Z.
VFR -RA may occur at the tail end of the valid forecast at DAY and
ILN. If it does occur, it will be VFR so it was left out attm for a
few reasons.

Rain will overspread CVG late in the period. Airmass saturation looks
to occur in a very short period of time so cigs/vsbys are expected to
drop from VFR to IFR in short order. Attm, a tempo group was used
beginning at 09Z to show IFR conditions. It will likely be a
changeover in a 1-2 hour period but that detail will get hashed out
as we get closer in time.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY are likely late Monday night into
early Tuesday, with LIFR CIGs possible early Tuesday. MVFR/IFR CIGs
will linger into Wednesday. Winds gusts to around 30 kt are possible
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ081-088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Franks