Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
761 FXUS61 KILN 221246 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 746 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Skies will finally clear today into this evening as high pressure builds in. High pressure will prevail through Monday. Rain will return Monday night ahead of a cold front that will move through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Updated the forecast to add in some showers across central Ohio and into the Scioto River Valley region. Surface ridge will build in through the day. Clouds will decrease from north northwest to south southeast, although it is possible that this may not occur in parts of northern Kentucky and south central Ohio until this evening. High temperature forecast seems reasonable across the northern half of the area, but may be on the optimistic side across southern areas that will not clear out until later. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... A short wave diving southeast across the upper Great Lakes tonight will bring a surface trough through the area. Expect some mid clouds with this system. There are conflicting signals whether there could also be a period of lower clouds in the wake of the trough late tonight into Sunday morning. But even most pessimistic guidance in this regard clear out the region for Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds in. Temperatures will be a bit above normal. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure across the region to start the period will move off to the east on Monday. Fairly good agreement within the model suite in weakening a short wave as it lifts from the central Plains into the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday. This will result in rain spreading into the region late Monday night and passing off to the east on Tuesday. Noticeable differences in guidance concerning robust energy emerging from the northern Rockies and northern Plains. ECMWF ensemble has very good agreement in its members that a faster and more open wave will pivot across the Great Lakes on Tuesday night. Much of the Canadian ensemble closes off the system and thus is a bit slower to take this system east. About half of the GFS members align with the Canadian consensus while a third of the GFS ensemble creates a much stronger closed low and is even slower. Surface low associated with this system will pass well north of the region, but a trailing cold front will move through the area. So the timing of the mid level system affects when frontal passage will occur in our region. That varies from Tuesday evening on the fast end and Wednesday afternoon on the slow side. Between the rain shield departing in the early part of Tuesday and the frontal passage, there will still be some areas of rain. Colder and drier airmass will move in behind the front with temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal for most of the area Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Solid lower ceilings have cleared, but there is still an MVFR deck passing across the area. So the terminals could still be affected by this in the early hours of the TAF period. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions with 4-6kft deck scattering out during the day. Mid clouds will pass across the region tonight. North to northwest winds less than 10 kt will switch around to southwest after 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Sunday morning. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely late Monday night into Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possible into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...