Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
256 FXUS61 KILN 281804 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 204 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area tonight. High pressure will return Friday and persist into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Short wave entering northwest Ohio will track east southeast across the region through the rest of the afternoon. Scattered light showers will continue out ahead of this feature. Another short wave swinging across eastern Michigan into southern Ontario will push a cold front southeast across the region tonight. There is some convection ahead of this boundary in southern lower Michigan and guidance does continue to suggest that CAPE up to 500 J/kg could develop into west central Ohio late this afternoon. So there is an additional chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day in far northern counties. This activity should wane fairly quickly with the loss of heating/instability even as the front continues across the region. Expect low clouds to develop late tonight in the post-frontal environment and push into at least the northern part of the area. And some guidance suggests that could extend area wide by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... There is some uncertainty with how extensive post-frontal clouds will be across the region to start the day, but those clouds should decrease during the morning as drier low level air pushes in. There will be some cirrus as another minor wave tracks southeast. Beyond that thin layer of high level moisture, a very dry airmass will move in as high pressure builds south. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long wave trough over eastern North America will persist through the period. There will be a weaken in this feature early next week, but new energy will drop out of the Canadian Plains, developing a closed low over the Great Lakes by Thursday. Spread remains within the ensemble suite regarding the amplitude of this system but the overall evolution of the pattern is in pretty good agreement. Surface high will predominate over the weekend into Monday keeping a very dry airmass in place. This will allow for fairly large diurnal ranges with well below normal lows and below normal highs with a slow moderating trend over time. Moisture starts returning northward on Tuesday with it not completely out of the question that some showers could develop as this occurs. But the better chance of precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through the region. Uncertainty with timing of this front is related to the amplitude of the associated upper system pushing into the Great Lakes. Temperatures will continue to warm ahead of the arrival of the front with readings getting back close to normal but a cool down is likely on Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers passing across the terminals at the beginning of the period will not cause any changes to flight category. VFR ceilings will clear out within a few hours of 0Z. A cold front will cross the region overnight. Expect clouds to redevelop in the wake of this, although there is uncertainty as to the extent, especially as far south as the Cincinnati terminals. This will have an impact at KLUK because with clouds, IFR to LIFR visibilities are likely there. At this point, ceilings that develop after 09Z are expected to be VFR except at KCMH/KLCK where a period of MVFR is forecast. Any ceilings are forecast to diminish before the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...