Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
804 FXUS61 KILN 151756 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 156 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will offer quiet and dry conditions through the end of the work week. Gusty winds along with the next chance of precipitation will arrive with a strong low pressure system this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Considerable cloudiness this afternoon will decrease in coverage heading into tonight as a weak mid-level disturbance pushes off east of the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature, with clearing skies and cool temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Drier air will advect into the middle Ohio Valley on Thursday as the surface high noses south from the Great Lakes into the upper Tennessee Valley. This will produce sunny skies and near-normal temperatures. A few mid and high clouds will begin to move into our western counties Thursday night. In the east, clear skies and low humidity will allow lows to drop into the middle to upper 30s. In the more sheltered locations, patchy frost is possible. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure remains centered just east of the Ohio Valley on Friday into Friday night allowing seasonable, dry weather to continue. Southerly flow helps highs to reach up near 70 on Friday. Lows on Friday night drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Cirrus should be fairly persistent Friday and Friday night. On Saturday, surface high pressure begins shifting east along with an upper level trough axis. Currently, Saturday looks to be dry and warm before the next disturbance arrives Saturday night into Sunday. This next disturbance will be a surface low and associated upper level trough moving in from the west. Widespread rainfall is expected especially on Sunday when increased PWATs overlap with forcing ahead of the low. Global ensembles suggest 0.5-1" of rain is likely. Despite shear and kinematic profiles being strong, the severe risk is low since instability is not currently forecast to develop. In addition to rain, breezy conditions are likely to be noted Saturday night through Monday. Rain chances diminish Sunday night into Monday morning behind the surface low and cold front. Cooler, drier conditions are expected behind the front for the start of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period as high pressure builds back south into the middle Ohio Valley. Can`t rule out another bout of river valley fog at LUK... though lingering mid-level clouds could keep visibilities up some tonight compared to the dense fog of recent days. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible late Saturday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...