Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
801 FXUS61 KILN 171802 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 202 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Fair weather will continue tonight as high pressure exits to the east. Low pressure will approach from the west on Saturday into Saturday night, bringing gusty winds and precipitation to close the weekend. Much cooler temperatures will be present into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Strong mid-level trough will begin to dive south into the northern High Plains tonight as ridging builds across the Ohio Valley. Southerly flow in the low levels will keep temperatures up in the 50s, with high clouds coming and going through the night. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Much warmer temperatures will arrive on Saturday while dewpoints increase through the 50s to near 60 by the afternoon. The deepening mid-level trough will cause formation of a surface low in the middle Mississippi Valley. This low will intensify quickly Saturday evening into the overnight hours as it lifts northeast into the Great Lakes. Warm air and moisture advection could cause a few showers to develop in the evening, mainly across our western counties. However, most of the showers and storms associated with the strengthening system will arrive after midnight. A 50-60 knot low level jet will cause gusty winds, especially during any convection after midnight heading toward the end of the short term period. Can`t rule out a strong to severe storm toward sunrise ahead of the cold front due to wind gust potential. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A strong low pressure system moves through the Lower Great Lakes on Sunday. Breezy, southerly winds and widespread showers are expected during the morning hours. Winds may gust upwards of 35 mph prior to noon. Despite a 50+ knot LLJ, the strongest winds may stay aloft in the WAA unless showers/storms can transport winds downward. The aforementioned widespread showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, are likely to be concentrated around a prefrontal trough Sunday morning before becoming more scattered behind trough later during the day. The severe threat remains fairly low unless some instability can form Sunday morning ahead of the actual cold front. The most likely area for any instability is across southern Ohio/northern Kentucky. Winds remain breezy and shift to the west behind the cold front later on Sunday. Winds may gust upwards of 40 mph in the CAA behind the front which will be a favorable for downward momentum mixing. Additionally, some light shower activity is likely to remain across the area for at least 6-12 hours after FROPA. Temperatures drop into the 50s and then into the 40s Sunday night. Surface high pressure briefly builds in across the Ohio Valley on Monday bringing dry conditions before the next low pressure system and cold front progresses through the area Monday night/Tuesday morning. Some isolated to scattered shower activity is possible with this second cold front although moisture appears a bit limited. Cooler air and unsettled conditions with clouds and possible shower activity may linger into Wednesday with upper level troughing in place. High pressure eventually progresses across the area on Thursday before another weak front moves through toward the end of the week. Temperatures remain on the cooler side for the end of the work week. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the period. Intermittent mid and high clouds will be present and southerly winds will increase a bit and start to become gusty late in the period as low pressure organizes over the Mississippi Valley. OUTLOOK...Gusty winds with thunderstorms possible Saturday night into Sunday. MVFR ceilings possible Sunday into Sunday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...