Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
893 FXUS61 KILN 212312 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 612 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Widespread rainfall persists through the evening before high pressure builds in for the weekend bringing dry conditions. The next chance for rain arrives on Monday night and persists through Tuesday night ahead of the next cold front. Colder, drier conditions are expected for Thanksgiving and the end of this week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A weak, broad low pressure system approaches the Ohio Valley from the west into the evening. Widespread rainfall persists ahead of the low as a weak boundary remains parked over the area. Temperatures likely continue to struggle to get much above 50 this afternoon with light rain and stratus locked in place. For tonight, scattered to isolated showers continue east of a shortwave upper level trough and the associated surface low. Mesoscale guidance does not have the vorticity max pushing through until late overnight/Saturday morning which suggests clouds and some shower activity may continue most of the night. Forecast lows drop a bit lower across the north where the winds go more northerly. However, temperatures remain warmer south of I-70 in areas that remain ahead of the vort max the entire night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A narrow ridge of high pressure looks to move across the Ohio Valley on Saturday. Although some lingering rainfall is possible across the southern Ohio and northern Kentucky on Saturday morning, dry conditions are likely for most locations especially by the afternoon. Cool northerly winds limit highs to the upper 40s for most locations under a mix of sun and clouds. Saturday night sees winds quickly shift toward the southwest with the approach of a weak trough. Conditions remain dry since moisture and forcing remain weak. Forecast lows are in the middle 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure builds in from the west on Sunday. Mild conditions along with a fair bit of sunshine are expected. The surface high then moves overhead on Sunday night continuing dry, tranquil weather to end the weekend. On Monday, the surface high quickly progresses east of the Ohio Valley which will allow southerly flow to redevelop and upper level ridging to build. Highs on Monday make a run at 60 south of the Ohio River to the upper 50s for locations along and north of I-70. Clouds build through the day as moisture increases. The next system encroaches from the west later in the day. Rain chances arrive Monday night and persist through Tuesday night ahead of a cold front coming in from the west. Currently, it appears that a first push of rain is likely well ahead of the front on Tuesday morning followed by more scattered rainfall just ahead of the front later on Tuesday. The highest precipitation totals are forecast to be along and south of the Ohio River according to medium range ensemble guidance. Temperatures drop and high pressure builds in from the west for Thanksgiving and the end of the week. Cold, breezy, and dry conditions appear to be in store for the holiday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A band of RA will pivot to the NE through the region through the overnight hours, with the steadiest light RA expected for nrn terminals of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK through at least 11z. However, coverage and intensity of light RA should slowly wane past 06z. Some light SHRA will be possible between about 06z-11z for srn sites of KCVG/KLUK/KILN, with mainly dry conditions expected for these sites otherwise. IFR/MVFR VSBY, along with IFR/LIFR CIGs, will prevail through daybreak until VSBY and CIGs slowly improve from N to S around/after 12z. IFR VSBY is expected to linger the longest for srn sites of KCVG/KLUK/KILN. VSBY will return to VFR area-wide by 16z, with CIGs trending from LIFR to MVFR by 18z, and eventually VFR by 21z, as CIGs scatter out from N to S during the afternoon. Skies will trend mostly clear area-wide toward 00z Sunday, with just some VFR clouds skirting northern parts of the Ohio Valley toward the end of the KCVG 30-hr TAF period. Light easterly flow at around 5kts will go more out of the NE around 5kts past 03z before going northerly around 5-8kts by/after 12z. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY are likely again late Monday night into Tuesday, with MVFR/IFR CIGs possible into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...