Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
287 FXUS61 KILN 012344 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 744 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Increased rainfall amounts for tonight into Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Above normal temperatures will be in place today. A cold front on Friday will lead to generally below normal temperatures through at least the middle of next week. 2) Precipitation is expected tonight into Friday, otherwise expect generally dry conditions through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Key Message 1) High temperatures will be in the 80s in most locations this afternoon with a few spots near 90 degrees. Breezy conditions will continue into the early evening hours. A cold front will move through on Friday ushering in cooler air through the day. Temperatures will then generally be below normal through at least the middle of next week. There will be the potential that a few spots will have some patchy frost Monday night and then again Tuesday night. Key Message 2) Rain showers will start to move into the region late in the overnight hours and into the daytime hours on Friday before tapering off. While some locally heavy rainfall will be possible, flooding is not a concern at this time. NBM QPF seemed on the low side given model consensus on higher values and therefore increased QPF for the event. Instability is limited and therefore while some rumbles of thunder will be possible, do not expect widespread thunderstorms. Generally dry conditions are expected the remainder of the week after Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Rain will overspread the region early tomorrow, with a quick drop from VFR to IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys as a cold front approaches. Shortly after the rain begins, wind will shift and if cigs haven`t fallen by then, they most certainly will with and behind the front. Models diverge a little on when the precip ends, and this forecast cut the end time by a little but raised the cigs to MVFR and VFR relatively quickly tomorrow afternoon. Wind shifts to nw and n behind the front, lingering around 10-12kt and dropping off towards sunset. A decent shot of rain is expected with the front, and vsbys will likely drop to IFR at times. Some thunder is not out of the question but has been left out of the terminals. Thought process here is that there won`t be any thunderstorms, just moderate to heavy convective rainfall producing occasional in cloud lightning and a few cg strokes. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...Franks