Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
277 FXUS61 KILN 092337 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 637 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence has decreased in the potential for fog and clouds late tonight. Timing of cloud arrival is later. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fog and low clouds possible late tonight and Tuesday. 2) Warming trend through Tuesday. 3) Precipitation next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Most recent guidance, including the LAMP, HRRR, RAP, and 18Z synoptic models are indicating that the influx of low level moisture will be later, well into Tuesday before manifesting itself into clouds. Also, while the HEFS has a fairly robust signal late tonight, the REFS is very muted. So, this potential is trending towards lower confidence in low clouds/fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. Previous discussion... There is a good signal for the development of fog and low clouds late tonight into Tuesday. In low level WAA pattern expect snow melt to add to the low level moisture. This will result in the development of fog and low clouds into the south overnight. Model solutions show these low clouds and fog advancing north as a surface warm front pivots north into the area. Have added the mention of fog to the forecast along with low clouds overnight into Tuesday. Uncertainty revolves around the exact placement and how low visibilities go. HREF shows 40 to 60 percent probability of less than 1/4 mile along and south of the Ohio River by sunrise Tuesday. This is the area that has the greatest probability of having public impacts due to the reduced visibility. Confidence was not high enough to issue a dense fog advisory at this time but this area will need to be monitored. KEY MESSAGE 2) Arctic air will retreat today into Tuesday. Expect high temperatures to range from around 40 degrees north of I-70 to the mid 50s south of the Ohio River Tuesday. Highs Wednesday through Friday will generally be in the lower/mid 30s north of I-70 to the lower 40s south of the Ohio River. Precipitation chances return next weekend. KEY MESSAGE 3) Progressive mid level and surface wave expected to track from the Southern Plains across the TN and Ohio River Valleys Saturday into Sunday time frame. There is a rather large latitudinal spread on the track of this system. The latest deterministic ICON/Canadian models are the farthest north and GFS is the most south - with the ECMWF model in between. With so much spread an ensemble approach has been looked at with the NBM showing a 30 to 40+ percent chance for an inch or more QPF across the south. The track will determine the amount of rain that is observed from this system. This rainfall combined with snow melt will likely result in rises on area rivers and streams. This system will need to be watched as the week progresses for more details in potential impacts. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will continue for the first half of the period with just high clouds. Light winds will veer to the south. A low level jet will move across the area after 12Z which will result in a period of low level wind shear, ending towards 18Z. Some low level moisture will spread in from the southwest. Latest signals are that ceilings will not develop until after 18Z. This is forecast to be IFR except at Cincinnati where MVFR is more likely. A front will pass across the terminals towards the end of the period. Winds will shift and low clouds will persist with some visibility restrictions also possible. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings are possible Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AR AVIATION...