Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
275 FXUS61 KILN 011051 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 651 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance will drop southeast across the region over the weekend. This will lead to the potential for some light rain, primarily Saturday night into Sunday morning. Dry conditions are expected next week as high pressure settles in. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest water vapor imagery shows a trough/closed low digging through the Midwest and heading toward the Ohio Valley. Moisture advection ahead of the system is fairly meager with scattered clouds the only evidence of the approaching system. Upper level cirrus is present to start the day with mid-level clouds spreading northward this afternoon and evening. Most of the rainfall is forecast to hold off until the short term period, but regional radar is likely to show an area of rain attempting to spread northward across Kentucky late this afternoon and evening. Can`t rule out a few batches of light rain or sprinkles reaching the area before the short term. This would be focused across the Kentucky counties. Temperatures are similar to yesterday, perhaps a few degrees warmer in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky with a more favorable southwesterly flow today. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... The closed low enters the lower Ohio Valley this evening. The best chance for rain is expected between 10 PM and 6 AM Sunday morning. The best coverage will be around the greater Cincinnati area spreading eastward across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Chances exist farther north but as the closed low continues to drop southeast, potential decreases for moisture to overspread northward. Rain chances remain in place for southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky into Sunday afternoon as the lingering belt of moisture persists, however the activity is expected to be quite scattered. Given the extensive cloud cover across the southern half of the area, temperatures stay in the 40s overnight with mid to upper 30s across the northern half. Similar daytime high temperatures for Sunday afternoon, generally in the mid to upper 50s. Some low 60s are once again possible in some spots. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Fairly uneventful forecast across the long term period as the jet stream becomes more zonal across the region. High pressure builds over the area Monday and Tuesday, and high temperatures are closer to seasonal normals. A chance for mid 60s arrives on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Low pressure passes to the north Wednesday night, and the associated cold front moves through with limited moisture. For now, rainfall chances are quite low so the forecast is dry with this particular system. The cold front does usher in a slightly cooler air mass into Thursday, reducing high temperatures back to seasonal normals. To wrap up the work week, another system is expected to move into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Depending on the timing, some warmth (mid 60s) may spread northward ahead of the system before a cold front moves through. At this time, this system looks like the next best chance for more widespread rainfall chances. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Continue to see multiple layers of clouds move in ahead of an approaching system. Conditions are expected to remain VFR through much of the period before moisture increases after 00Z. Weak low pressure forms later this evening, causing the westerly winds this afternoon to go light and variable. MVFR CIGs and VIS move in from the south as a period of light rain moves into CVG/LUK after 06Z. PROB30 in place for uncertainty in the arrival of these restrictions, but confidence grows after 07Z continuing into Saturday morning. MVFR CIGs/VIS also mentioned in ILNs TAF, but given the lower confidence at this time, limited the mention to a PROB30 group. DAY/CMH/LCK are too far north so chances are much lower and would likely arrive beyond the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Lingering MVFR conditions possible into Sunday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McGinnis NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis