366
FXUS61 KILN 211049
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
649 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Flood watch extended through noon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Additional showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
this morning. This may cause locally heavy rain to fall over
saturated ground.

2) Cooler weather will prevail through the week. More showers will
occur Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Low level jet ahead of an MCV will be weaken as the morning
progresses. Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across
the area. Precipitable water remains around 1.8 inches and the warm
cloud depth is around 4 km. So this activity will have the potential
to produce more locally heavy rain, although all indications are that
it should be weakening as it moves into/across the region.
Nonetheless, with the ground saturated from previous rainfall, felt
that it was prudent to extend the flood watch through noon.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Cooler airmass will continue to settle across the area today. Short
wave tracking across the country will deepen and become a closed low
as it moves through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will amplify
an inverted surface trough along the western slopes of the
Appalachians. These features will bring some showers to the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday with the greater chance being in eastern
counties.

The closed low will still be progressive until it gets off the
Atlantic coast at which point it will meander. This will result in an
extended dry period for the area during the latter part of the week
into the weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR to IFR ceilings will lower to IFR area wide. Showers and some
thunderstorms will continue to move across the area early in the
period. After this moves off, ceilings may lift back to MVFR in some
locations. There is the potential for some more showers between 18Z
and 00Z. Ceilings should drop back to IFR to LIFR after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue and may extend into
Thursday morning. Visibility restrictions also possible Tuesday night
and Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-
     060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...None.
IN...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35