Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
139 FXUS61 KILN 301045 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH Issued by National Weather Service Cleveland OH 545 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes through this morning bringing a mix of rain and snow to the Ohio Valley. There will be a brief break in precipitation with cold and dry conditions for Monday before the next system brings a chance for snow Monday night into Tuesday. Cold weather stays in place through the entire work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A surface low continues to move eastward through the Great Lakes through this afternoon. A dry slot southeast of the low has worked into the Ohio Valley overnight and should continue to limit any further widespread precipitation. Only showery precipitation is expected through the rest of the pre dawn hours ahead of a cold front associated with the low. Rain or a rain/snow mix are the favored precipitation types. Precipitation chances end from west to east after sunrise after the cold front pushes through. Highs occur early today and temperatures remain in the 30s behind the front the rest of today. Winds could gust upwards of 25mph this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Surface low pulls farther northeast tonight. A brief period of dry, cold weather will be in place through Monday in the wake of the low as a surface high moves across the region. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next batch of winter weather is expected to arrive Monday night and last into Tuesday morning when a shortwave upper level trough pivots through the Ohio Valley. Despite modest moisture being in place, forcing remains fairly limited with only weak WAA and DCVA. Any enhanced low level forcing and banding associated with a developing surface low likely remains well the south and east according to ensemble guidance and typical climatology. The onset of snowfall looks to be around 8pm across the west before overspreading areas to the east through midnight. Precipitation lasts through the night before tapering off behind the upper level trough axis Tuesday morning. At least an inch of snow appears moderately likely for most location. Some areas may receive upwards of 3 inches depending on how strong forcing ends up being (outside chance a surface low forms closer the the area). There is also the outside chance that some mixed precipitation sneaks into the southeast which could limit snow totals. Travel impacts are expected Monday night and for the Tuesday morning commute. Cold and dry conditions move into the area Tuesday evening through at least as Wednesday when high pressure pivots across the region. The next cold front and shot of cold air arrives around the Thursday timeframe. Another chance for winter precipitation develops by the weekend as southerly flow tries to return to the area. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A very narrow band of RA, or a RA/SN mix, will move through the local area through the first hour or two of the TAF period before dry conditions evolve area-wide thereafter in the post-frontal environment. This pcpn will be bring some MVFR VSBY along with it, but VSBY should return VFR area-wide by 14z. MVFR CIGs will prevail through the entirety of the TAF period area- wide, with some brief IFR CIGs possible after 00z, particularly for nrn sites. The main item of interest mid morning through mid afternoon is going to be the gusty winds, with WSW winds of 15-20kts, with gusts around 30kts, expected. Wind will slowly subside toward 21z and beyond, going less than 5kts out of the NW by 06z. OUTLOOK...More snow is expected Monday night into Tuesday with additional MVFR/IFR conditions likely. Some LIFR VSBY may be possible Monday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...