319
FXUS63 KILX 271743
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1143 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are expected today and Friday, with
  highs in the 30s. Breezy winds will make it feel even cooler
  this morning, with wind chills in the teens.

- There is a 70-90% chance of 5" of snow north of I-72 this
  weekend (40-70% to the south). A Winter Storm Watch will be in
  effect from 12am Saturday to 6am Sunday. Those with travel
  plans are urged to monitor forecast updates, and begin preparing
  for travel impacts on Saturday.

- Highs early next week appear to be in the upper teens to low
  30s, with lows potentially in the single digits to upper teens.
  Wind chills have a 30-60% chance of being below 0 degrees
  Monday morning, north of a Quincy to Paxton line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Happy Thanksgiving, dedicated readers! High pressure is setting up
over the plains today ahead of the next impactful system this
weekend, giving us a beautiful (albeit chilly) holiday to be
thankful for. If you have any outdoor festivities (turkey trots,
parades, turkey frying, etc), you might like to bundle up.
Temperatures will be only getting into the 30s in central IL or low
40s for southeastern IL today. Wind chills this morning will be in
the teens. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected for today. Highs
through Saturday will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. Lows through
Saturday are in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Ahead of the system Saturday, moisture transport will increase from
the Gulf, feeding the precipitation overnight Friday and all day
Saturday. WAA will also play a role in bumping up temperatures to
near or just above freezing during the day Saturday. This will
impact where and when the transition line will be in Illinois, which
is the biggest uncertainty at this time. There has been a slight
southern shift with the models over the previous day, pushing the
higher snow amounts south. The system we are watching will begin
travel over the CONUS today, and will begin to be better sampled by
observational tools. This will result in a better understand and
depiction by the models in the near future. The system looks like it
will be entering eastern IL around 06z Saturday and exiting between
06-12z Sunday. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued tonight for the
06z Saturday to 12z Sunday period for counties along and north of I-
70.

From 06z Sat to 06z Sun, probabilities for > 5 inches of snow show a
40-70% chance from I-70 to I-72 and a 70-90% north of I-72, based
off the probabilistic NBM. North of a Galesburg to Bloomington line,
there is a 30-60% chance of 12 inches of snow. At some point during
the day Saturday, the precipitation will transition to a rain/snow
mix somewhere in central or southeastern IL. This could affect the
snowfall totals but could still be impactful with increased travel
on the roads, especially if anything melts and refreezes.

Those with travel plans this weekend are urged to check back for
additional updates. The probability of wintry travel impacts is
steadily increasing.

Next week, more wintry precipitation is possible, along with
bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills. Highs to start next week
are forecast to be in the upper teens to low 30s, with lows
potentially in the single digits (mainly north of I-72) to upper
teens. Wind chills in the northwestern portion of the CWA have a 30-
60% chance of being below 0 degrees Monday morning, based off the
LREF.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the entire 18z TAF period.
Skies are currently clear at the central Illinois terminals:
however, 1730z/1130am satellite imagery shows ample mainly diurnal
MVFR cloud cover across northern Iowa. These clouds are drifting
southeastward and will skim the I-74 corridor in a dissipating
phase late this afternoon and evening. Will need to keep an eye on
the potential for a brief period of MVFR ceilings at 2500-3000ft
at KPIA/KBMI/KCMI...but have only carried SCT clouds at this time.
Any SCT low clouds will dissipate toward midnight, followed by
mostly clear conditions overnight into Friday morning before high
clouds begin to increase from west to east toward midday. NW winds
will gust 20-25kt for the next few hours, with gusts subsiding by
22z. Light NW winds at 10kt or less are anticipated by Friday
morning.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday
night for ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066.

&&

$$