845
FXUS63 KILX 290951
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
451 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures persist through Friday, with
  highs climbing to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees, around 15
  degrees above normal.

- There could be some sprinkles (north of I-72) or light rain
  showers (near and south of I-72) this afternoon. Any
  significant rain chances are likely to hold off until early
  next week.

- While rain chances are expected Halloween (Saturday) morning
  north of I-72, dry conditions are expected for any
  miscellaneous outdoor activities later in the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

There is a cold front off to the northwest of the CWA in Iowa this
morning. It will dip down into central IL today. There could be some
sprinkles (north of I-72) or light rain showers (near and south of I-
72) this afternoon. Chances for showers are greatest tomorrow into
tomorrow night, near and north of I-72 (40-70% chance). More light
rain chances remain in the forecast through the weekend as the
frontal boundary lingers in the region. Fortunately, trick or
treating (or other fall activities) hours on Saturday look to be
during one of the lulls in precip chances in the forecast. Whatever
light rain manages to fall between now and Sunday will do little to
alleviate the ongoing dry conditions.

The start of November will usher in quite a significant pattern
change. The synoptic models continue to develop a large, cutoff,
deepening upper low over the central Plains early next week, with an
associated intensifying surface low. This system will bring the
greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area within
the next week. The NBM has a widespread 50-70% chance across central
and southeastern IL focused on Monday evening into Tuesday evening.
Anomalous PWATs for November are forecast for this system`s passage,
values 1.5-1.8 inches on various models. The LREF shows a 50-70%
chance for over 1 inch of rain to fall in total through Wednesday
morning west of I-57.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal; however, will trend
slightly cooler starting Saturday into next week. Temperatures will
be in the upper 60s to low 70s for highs, which is still above
normal. The CPC`s 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and Week 3-4 outlooks are all
continuing to show above normal temperatures. The additional cloud
cover and increased rain chances this weekend into next week may
inhibit the temperatures from getting too warm, potentially being
cooler than what is in the forecast now.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 451 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A cold front positioned over eastern IA/southern WI will drop
south through the area today. Scattered to broken mid-level
clouds will precede the front with ceiling heights dropping to
3-5k ft as the front passes. South winds will veer to the west-
southwest by late morning, and then will become northerly by
the evening hours. Some light rain/sprinkles may occur
throughout the day at any of the sites but confidence isn`t
high enough to include them into the TAFs.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Copple