140
FXUS63 KILX 140215
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
915 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances this weekend will be highest through this evening,
  then will become more focused near and south of I-70 on
  Saturday. While severe weather is not likely, this area has
  potential for a few funnel clouds near a surface wind shift.

- Temperatures into the middle of next week will not be out of the
  ordinary for mid June, but heat index values in the mid 90s are
  likely Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A band of showers with embedded heavier showers will continue
across parts of central IL this evening. However, scattered
showers are still possible across the east and southeast. The
steadier rain will be east of the Illinois river and west of a
Taylorville to Champaign line. Current forecast is on track but
made some minor tweaks to the pop/wx grids to reflect reality
better. Update already sent.

Auten

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Nearly stacked low pressure area continues to slowly spiral
northeast across southern Missouri this afternoon. After tapering
off for awhile, showers have begun to increase over our area, as
clouds thinned a bit allowing surface CAPE values to rise to over
1000 J/kg. A general increase in shower activity is expected into
early evening before loss of diurnal heating, with lingering
showers after midnight mainly east of I-55.

Latest model trends have been favoring a bit more of a southern
track with the low, and thus rain chances for Saturday have been
shifted more southeast with areas northwest of I-55 generally
remaining dry. While severe weather is not expected, NAM guidance
does show non-supercell tornado parameters greater than 1 from about
Jacksonville to Olney, along the trailing trough axis, so a few
funnel clouds in this area wouldn`t be out of the question. The
low will take its sweet time drifting east, reaching north central
Kentucky Sunday afternoon. Can`t rule out a few stray showers
lingering south of I-70 near the trailing boundary, though it`s
looking like the weekend should end on a dry note.

Upper level high pressure will be centered just south of New
Mexico early next week, allowing a series of troughs to traverse
the northern U.S. Rain chances Monday and Tuesday will mainly be
diurnally driven, but a deepening trough mid week will bring a
more substantial chance of storms to the Midwest. SPC and various
machine-learning progs favor Wednesday as the most likely chance
of any severe weather in our area, with decent agreement seen
in the longer range models with the track of the associated cold
front.

Humid conditions are expected much of the period, though
temperatures do not appear to be excessively hot. NBM
probabilities of high temperatures over 90 degrees are generally
less than 30%, with Tuesday and Wednesday the most likely time
frame if they did occur.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Though all sites are VFR, MVFR conditions will move over all sites
this evening and continue during through the night. Some sites
could see as low as IFR conditions as winds remain light and lots
of moisture over the area from the rain today that will continue
into this evening. Rain should become more scattered, so will be
going to VCSH for all sites except PIA this evening. MVFR cigs
will continue tomorrow during the day and then improve during the
afternoon. CMI will see MVFR cigs tomorrow afternoon. Given the
location of the low pressure area tomorrow, DEC and CMI will see
scattered showers around in the late morning through afternoon, so
will have a PROB30 for both sites. Wind direction will be
northeast through the period with speeds less than 10kts.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$