328
FXUS63 KILX 231728
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1128 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a greater than 90% chance for rain Monday evening and
  overnight. There is a 40-60% chance of 1/4 inch of rainfall
  from Monday 18z to Tuesday 18z.

- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday will turn sharply
  colder midweek with widespread low to mid 20s in the forecast
  Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Dry weather continues as high pressure reigns over the region again
today. Highs today will be in the mid 50s, with lows ranging in the
30s.

The next chance for rain looks to be tomorrow as a frontal system
starts to push through Illinois. Forecast soundings have little to
no CAPE of any sort for the Monday to Tuesday timeframe, leaving
thunder out of the forecast. The LREF is showing a 40-60% chance of
1/4 inch of rainfall from Monday 18z to Tuesday 18z. The NBM is
showing a 50-70% chance for the same amount over the same time
period.

After Tuesday afternoon, drier weather sets up through Friday.
However, the cold front associated with the low bringing
precipitation to central IL Monday-Tuesday is expected to move
through Tuesday night, which will bring in a burst of winter-like
temperatures just in time for the holiday weekend. Highs on Tuesday
warm to upper 50s to mid 60s. Behind the front, highs for the rest
of the week only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. There is a sign
that temperatures will warm back into the 50s by Sunday. The biggest
drama maker with this forecast run is the bitterly cold lows
beginning Thursday morning.

Lows for Thursday morning through Saturday morning are in the low to
mid 20s. Potentially, Thursday morning (Thanksgiving) and Friday
morning will be the most frigid -- with a 60-80% chance of apparent
temperatures being below 20 degrees north of a Havana to Paris line,
according to the LREF.

We are monitoring trends in the models for the next weekend. There
appears to be a low system that could bring more rain and snow to
central Illinois Saturday-Sunday. Based off a week out, the system
will start as snow and transition to rain. The LREF is showing a 30-
50% chance of 0.1 inches of snowfall from Sat 06z to Sun 06z north
of I-70. This system is 6-7 days out, so things are expected to
change, but it is something to look at for the forecast this week.
Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

The fog and low stratus from earlier this morning has largely
mixed out, with VFR conditions now observed across the board. We
are monitoring a patch of persistent LIFR conditions ongoing
across central Missouri early this afternoon. Most short-term
models support this area expanding and lifting into central
Illinois sometime between 04z-07z, and then persisting through
late Monday morning before scattering-out. Confidence is
currently high enough to have added mention of such conditions in
this TAF cycle, and we will continue to monitor trends and
developments throughout this evening.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$