375
FXUS63 KILX 121923
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
123 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue through Saturday, when highs reach
  the low to mid 70s, which approaches records for some locations.

- Predominantly dry weather through this weekend with the next
  appreciable chance of rain (50-60%) Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A west-northwesterly flow regime aloft over the central CONUS
continues to maintain dry conditions. West-northwest winds will
remain breezy this afternoon with gusts near 25 mph. Visible
satellite imagery shows clear skies locally, with some cirrus
streaming east-southeast over the central and northern Plains.
Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy (high/thin cirrus)
tonight due to a weak impulse embedded in the upper-level flow,
which could impede aurora viewing at times. High- resolution
guidance indicates temperatures falling into the low to mid-30s
tonight. Winds will decrease tonight through Thursday morning, as
a ridge axis crosses the region from the west. High temperatures
on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than today, reaching the
lower 60s for most.

The forecast remains dry through the weekend as an amplified
upper ridge shifts into the region. The ECMWF, ECMWF-AI, and
GFS/GEFS ensemble means all support a substantial warming trend,
with high temperatures reaching near 70 degrees on Friday and into
the low to mid-70s on Saturday. This places Peoria as the
location with the greatest chance to approach its record high of
74F on Saturday. Breezy conditions return on Saturday ahead of a
frontal passage, with ensembles indicating southwest wind gusts
between 20-30 mph. The ECMWF and GFS ensembles suggest the cold
frontal passage will be dry on Saturday afternoon/evening.
Following the front, a surface high-pressure system will move in,
resulting in dry conditions on Sunday and temperatures cooling
back toward seasonable values, with highs in the 50s.

Model guidance continues to show a slow, uncertain evolution
regarding a cut-off low-pressure system over the southwestern
CONUS. The latest NBM trends indicate a maximum PoPs of 50-60%
for rain on Monday night. However, there is significant spread
among deterministic and ensemble solutions leading to poor
confidence in timing or location of precip early next week.
Higher confidence that temperatures will trend near to slightly
below seasonal norms through mid-week.

25

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1101 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR with mainly SKC today and high clouds increasing tonight. West
winds will be gusty this afternoon, highest at KCMI-KDEC near
25-30 kt. Gusts to diminish with sunset then winds go
light/variable late tonight and Thu morning when a high pressure
ridge shifts overhead.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$