548
FXUS63 KIND 141448
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
948 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing Clouds this afternoon, Rain arriving by late
  afternoon across the southwest Central Indiana. Continued
  warming into the next work week

- Scattered to widespread rain showers Saturday Night to midday
  Sunday...rainfall 0.25-0.75 inches for most locations. Best
  chances across southern central Indiana

- Patchy fog possible Saturday and Sunday nights

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as
  temperatures continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by
  middle of next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Surface analysis late this afternoon shows strong high pressure in
place over the Carolinas and low pressure was found over OK. THis
was resulting in a southerly flow of mild air streaming into the
Ohio Valley.  GOES19 shows a cloud shield associated with the
approaching low pressure system over IL and MO, pushing northeast to
Indiana. Radar shows a large area of precipitation preceding the
low pressure system over KS and MO.

THis afternoon the low pressure system is expected to continue to
make progress eastward, allowing the precipitation to continue to
advance eastward. HRRR suggests some of the first showers reaching
the Vincennes area near and after 20Z before continuing to
overspread the rest of Central Indiana through the evening hours.
GFS 290K isentropic surface begins to show lift arriving in SW
central Indiana after 20Z. Thus best chances for precipitation
should hold off until late afternoon across the southwest with
increasing pops spreading northeast toward 00Z.

Warm air advection will continue this afternoon, but cloud cover
will limit the full scope. High should still reach near 50 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Upper-level analysis showing split flow across the CONUS with a
potent trough over the southern Rockies. At the same time, the
northern stream forms a pronounced ridge over the northern Rockies.
Both jets converge over the Mississippi Valley with broad
northwesterly flow over Indiana. Guidance is in good agreement
showing the southern stream trough passing to our south, without
ever fully phasing with the northern stream.

At the surface, cyclogenesis is underway over the southern Plains as
the southern stream trough ejects eastward. The resulting low
likewise passes to our south. However, guidance is in good agreement
showing warm air advection on the northeastern flank of this system
with decent moisture return. An area of light to moderate rainfall
is shown, with amounts ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 inches on average.
A few of the higher-resolution guidance has locally higher totals
of around an inch, mainly across our south.

The primary forecast challenge with this system are antecedent dry
air and how far north moisture can advect. While guidance is in good
agreement showing the rainfall, there remains disagreement in the
fine details. Namely, the northern edge of the precip shield. Global
models, including the GEFS, have shifted slightly northward with the
overnight runs, bringing more rainfall to the I-70 corridor
including Indianapolis. High-resolution guidance is mixed, with some
models not even allowing precip to reach I-70. Others bring rain as
far north as Lafayette and Kokomo.

For the forecast, the majority of guidance shows at least some rain
making it to Indy and points northward. We`ll trim PoPs a bit on the
northern edge as antecedent dry air may cause a rather sharp cut-off
in terms of precipitation totals. A prolonged period of virga is
possible across these areas before the boundary layer finally
moistens up. Further south, we`ve nudged PoPs upwards a bit in order
to tighten up the PoP gradient over central Indiana. Naturally, the
highest uncertainty in the forecast lies within this gradient as any
deviation north of south will have a much greater impact on the
eventual outcome.

Continued warm air advection should bring about another day with
highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Increasing mid/high-level cloud
cover will limit how warm we get, though a few places may climb into
the upper 50s...especially if high clouds remain thin. Lows tonight
remain mild with rain and thick cloud cover most of the night.
Expect lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Some patchy fog may
develop late tonight, especially once the rain comes to an end and
if lingering stratus clears up. Little in the way of an air mass
change is anticipated following the system, so the boundary layer
likely remains moist as high pressure moves back in on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Sunday through Tuesday...

Lingering rain is expected at the start of the period with a low
pressure system passing to the south. Rain should mostly be confined
to the southeast half of the area Sunday morning. Look for the
system to then depart Sunday afternoon allowing rain to diminish
from northwest to southeast. High pressure building in late Sunday
through early next week should keep weather conditions mostly quiet.

Favorable radiational cooling from light winds and clear skies over
damp grounds may promote fog development Sunday night into Monday
morning. The one caveat is mid-high clouds are expected to increase
late Sunday night which may limit development to some degree.
Temperatures will trend warmer each day due to persistent warm air
advection and increasing heights aloft. Highs should be in the 50s
while lows range from the mid 30s to low 40s. Some portions of south-
central IN may reach the low 60s by Tuesday.

Tuesday night through the end of the week...

Long term guidance depicts a low pressure system passing through the
Great Lakes Region with a warm front lifting north across central
Indiana Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will continue the warming
trend into midweek, potentially breaking daily record minimum and
high temperatures. The current forecasted high for Wednesday in
Indianapolis is 66F which would tie the daily record high back in
2017. The current forecasted low Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning is 52F and the daily record warmest low is 46F.

Much of the forcing from the associated system should remain north
of the area midweek limiting rain chances, but there is a low 20
percent chance for isolated showers as the warm front lifts through.
Diverging model solutions leads to lower confidence towards late
week. Ensemble solutions generally show a shortwave aloft promoting
surface cyclogenesis near the Central Plains before the low pressure
system then moves towards Indiana. This suggest an active pattern
and higher rain chances are in the forecast, but exact details
remain uncertain.

Highs are expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s Thursday.
Look for temperatures to trend cooler thereafter as cooler air
likely filters in behind the late week system.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 619 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Impacts:

- Rain arrives between 0z-03z across central Indiana
- MVFR ceilings/visibility during rain. Low chance IFR.

Discussion:

Mainly clear skies persist across central Indiana as high pressure
exits to the east. High clouds are spreading into southern Indiana,
ahead of an approaching low pressure system over the southern
Plains. This system will bring rain later this evening into tonight.
The best chance of rain will be at HUF and BMG, with rain spreading
northward to IND as well...though IND will be near the northern edge
of the main area of rain. Some guidance shows rain spreading even
further north, potentially reaching LAF. We`ve included a VCSH to
cover this possibility. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
while it is raining. A brief period of IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out, however.

Winds generally remain out of the S or SSW this afternoon. Wind
direction gradually becomes SE or ESE tonight as the low pressure
system passes to our south. Speeds remain under 10kt.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Eckhoff