303
FXUS63 KIND 281659
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1259 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers this morning, especially north of I-70. Low chance
  of thunderstorms as well.

- Dry and quiet weather for the weekend into early next week

- Potential for another system mid-week with another shot of cooler
  afterwards

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 919 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

After nearly a week or more without rain for much of Central
Indiana, light rain will bring a little relief from the abnormally
dry conditions. Latest satellite and radar imagery depicts a SW-NE
oriented trough axis pushing southeastward into North Central
Indiana this morning. While this is not the best set up for
efficient rainfall processes, there is just enough moisture
advection ahead of the front to support light rain showers. ACARs
and RAOB soundings from around the region still show a fairly dry
near surface layer through around 2km agl with weak mid level lapse
rates. This environment is not very conducive for convective
development, so expect any showers to remain fairly light this
morning. Best chances for rainfall exist along and north of the I-70
corridor, with the most widespread showers from Lafayette to Kokomo
to Muncie. These showers will continue moving southeast into Central
Indiana into the early afternoon hours, keeping temperatures fairly
cool for this time of year in the 60s. Lowered highs today toward
the NBM10th percentile for Central and North Central Indiana due to
the rain and cloud cover, keeping highs in the lower 70s. If clouds
do not break up this afternoon over northeastern portions of the
state, would not be surprised if highs did not even reach 70 for
some locations.

Later on this afternoon, some clearing behind this main area of
showers may allow for enough surface heating and destabilization for
an isolated thunderstorm, mainly across North Central Indiana. Added
a very slight chance for convective activity from Kokomo to Muncie
during the mid to late afternoon hours. Nothing severe is expected,
but do not be surprised to see a rogue lightning strike if
additional showers develop this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Upper air analysis shows a disturbance approaching Indiana from the
northwest. Satellite imagery shows clouds associated with this
feature increasing over the past few hours. Continued cloud develop
is expected as the disturbance interacts with a cold front
approaching from the north.

Eventually, scattered showers are expected to develop upstream over
Illinois, reaching Indiana by sunrise. Hi-res guidance has been a
bit more bullish regarding shower coverage, so will increase PoPs a
bit especially north of I-70. Some thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon as instability increases due to solar insolation. However,
by this point the bulk of large-scale forcing will be sliding east.
As such, we`re expecting any thunderstorm activity to be isolated at
best.

Once the cold front arrives late this evening / overnight, we`ll see
a wind shift to northeasterly. Cooler air then filters in during the
day Friday along with some low-level cloud cover. Lingering clouds
should then gradually dissipate during the day as drier air filters
in.

Despite being in the pre-frontal environment, today`s highs will not
be much warmer than tomorrow due to persistent cloud cover. Highs in
the low to mid 70s will be common both days. However, there should
be a much greater difference in low temps between today and
tomorrow. With a fresh shot of cooler air along with clearer skies,
Friday`s lows should be a bit cooler with readings as low as the
upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Large-scale troughing currently exists over the Midwest and
northeastern US. This has lead to cooler than normal weather with
highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Ensemble guidance
shows little in the way of change through the duration of the
forecast period.

Precipitation chances will be low since synoptic-scale forcing looks
to be limited, at least through the weekend. Cloud cover from
upstream convection may be present at times along with some patchy
morning fog. Otherwise, pleasant weather is anticipated through
about Tuesday or Wednesday.

Around that time, guidance is hinting at an upper-level low
developing within the large-scale troughing. The resulting system
could linger for a few days, providing an extended period of
scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty
within deterministic guidance so will keep PoPs at slight to chance
for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Impacts:

- Rain showers continue into the afternoon hours, brief periods of
MVFR vis
- Patchy fog possible tonight at KLAF

Discussion:

Satellite and radar show scattered showers across Central Indiana
moving in from the northwest. Brief periods of MVFR vis possible
under the heaviest showers, but for the most part VFR conditions
should prevail through the afternoon as low  level dry air keeps
showers light and cigs above 5000 ft. There`s a very slight chance of
a rogue lightning strike this afternoon, mainly near KLAF, but
confidence is low enough to keep this out of the TAF. Will update
the forecast accordingly if upstream conditions become favorable for
convective development.


Southerly winds under 6 kts this afternoon become light and variable
this evening and during the overnight hours. Winds switch to the
north behind the front tomorrow, remaining under 10 kts at all
sites.

Clearing skies and light winds overnight may result in patchy fog,
especially for KIND and KLAF where recent rainfall will leave the
boundary layer fairly saturated. Higher confidence in fog exists at
KLAF, so have included a tempo group for 1/2sm from 08z-12z tomorrow
morning. Any fog should dissipate by 13z, with VFR cigs and vis
expected the rest of the day for all of Central Indiana.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...CM