365
FXUS63 KIND 230255
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
955 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some sunshine Sunday with mild temperatures

- Rain expected Monday night into Tuesday, with lingering chances
  into early Wednesday

- Much colder air for Thanksgiving into next weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Fair weather to continue overnight amid broad Pacific maritime
surface high pressure drifting east across the central CONUS...under
rather small mid-level weakness, whose narrow band of clouds, now
crossing the region, should be exiting to Ohio by 08Z.  Rain-free
conditions will be maintained courtesy of the rather dry column.
Lowest confidence surrounds fog potential towards dawn...with the
combination of RH values nearing 100 percent, scattered clouds, and
winds generally above 5 mph...likely allowing patchy visibility
reductions in lower areas better protected from the light breeze.

Readings to drop to mainly the mid-30s by early Sunday morning, with
upper 30s more likely inside I-465 and along far southern zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 229 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Quiet weather will continue for the remainder of the afternoon, with
some increase in mid and high clouds for parts of the area.

Tonight, mainly mid and high clouds will be around as a surface cold
front moves into the area. Forcing is weak and moisture limited, so
do not expect any precipitation with the front.

Near and behind the front overnight into Sunday morning, some
guidance is showing stratus and even low visibility in fog
developing. The atmosphere looks to be too turbulent for fog
development, but cannot rule out some patchy stratus if enough low
level moisture becomes available. Will keep skies partly cloudy.

Low temperatures in the middle and upper 30s look reasonable given
expected conditions.

Any stratus will mix out Sunday morning leaving behind mostly sunny
conditions for the afternoon. With the sunshine, temperatures will
peak in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 229 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Sunday night into much of Monday will be quiet across central
Indiana with upper ridging influencing the area. Temperatures will
be seasonable.

An initial upper trough and surface low pressure system will impact
the area late Monday into Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a
decent upper jet which could put the area in the right entrance
region. Forcing and moisture look good enough to go high PoPs Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

A much stronger low pressure system will impact the northern USA and
will drag a more potent cold front through on Tuesday night. Best
forcing from this system will be well north of the area, and the
previous system will have taken much of the moisture with it. Will
keep some lower PoPs for rain around through Tuesday night.
Temperatures will be mild ahead of the stronger front on Tuesday,
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected.

Some uncertainty remains on the timing and strength of the
stronger system Tuesday into Tuesday night, which could shift
timing of the PoPs and when cooler air will move into the area.

Much colder air will move in for Wednesday into the holiday weekend.
Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s, but highs on Thanksgiving and
Friday will be mainly in the 30s. Lows Friday morning may dip into
the teens north.

For the moment believe any lake enhanced precipitation will remain
north of the area as colder air flows in, and high pressure should
keep Thanksgiving and Friday dry.

A warm front may move into the area later Saturday and bring a
chance of light precipitation. Temperatures will rebound some into
the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 529 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Impacts:

- A chance for MVFR/IFR stratus late tonight into Sunday morning

Discussion:

Mid and high clouds will continue to move in this evening ahead of a
front.

Behind the front, guidance is hinting at stratus and even fog
developing overnight as cooler air moves in. The atmosphere still
looks to be too turbulent for fog, but some MVFR/IFR stratus may
develop. Confidence is higher than the previous TAF issuance, but it
is still not high enough to include ceilings at this time. Will
continue to monitor.

Southwest winds will veer to northwest after the front passes
tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50