128
FXUS63 KIWX 072339
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
739 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light showers Saturday afternoon and evening may be
  the only chance of measurable rainfall the next 7 days.

- Below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday, coldest
  Monday.

- Transition to above normal temperatures (80s and maybe a few
  90s) with heat indices possibly becoming a concern for the end
  of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Mixing of slightly higher winds is underway over much of the
area with gusts in the 25 to locally 35 mph range. As you get
closer to the lake, the marine layer has kept mixing in check
with gusts and waves in the nearshore waters lower than
forecasted. Any gusts will quickly diminish this evening.

The upper level low located north of Lake Huron, will slowly edge
east to Maine by 18Z Sat. While the impacts from this feature will
lessen over the next 24 hours, 2 weak short waves will move
towards the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Sat/Sat night bringing what
may be the best chance for precipitation over the next week. The
first, more subtle wave was moving across Wyoming and will
track into Nebraska and then ESE into central/southern IL by 12Z
Sat. Another closed upper parked north of Montana will send a
weak trough south with an upper level speed max causing rapidly
deepening as it tracks to northern Ontario by 06Z Sun. While the
best energy remains north, a disturbance will enter the area
during the afternoon and evening hours bringing a chance for
showers. Moisture will be rather limited and although some
modest southerly flow in the low levels tries to setup deeper
moisture remains well south of the area and what little
advection may occur with the first wave moving out of Nebraska
will remain south of us, feeding remnants of a MCS expected to
take shape later today/tonight across portions of NE and KS. As
a result, no more than chc pops are warranted.

The deepening of the upper low over eastern Canada will allow for
high pressure at the surface to build into the region with dry and
cool conditions expected, most noticeable on Monday as the strongest
wave drops south across the western Lakes. A few showers can`t be
ruled out with this feature, but moisture will be so sparse
will be hard for them to generate much in the way of QPF.

Upper level ridge axis quickly builds in mid week with temperatures
climbing back towards normal in the upper 70s. One more trough will
drop into the northern Great lakes Thursday night into Friday with
the main impacts to us being holding temps near to maybe a touch
above normal (around 80 to low 80s) and a small (yet barely
mentionable shot for a few showers. Pattern thereafter suggests the
heat dome that will be settled over the SW states will try to edge
northeast towards the region over the weekend into next week. Med
range models varying somewhat on timing of 20 degree C or higher 850
temps somewhere in the Sunday to Monday time frame. Regardless,
temperatures should remain in the 80s for highs with humidity values
slowly creeping up.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 735 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites with gusty
northwest winds becoming light and variable overnight. By
Saturday, winds will strengthen out of the SSW ahead of a cold
front, gusting to around 20 knots. Afternoon showers are
possible, felt confident adding -shra and MVFR conditions to
KSBN, but left KFWA with just VCSH for now, as it seems model
guidance is conflicted with regards to the timing of the
precipitation and whether or not it even reaches KFWA before 00z
(more likely after).


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...MCD