155
FXUS63 KIWX 281828
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
228 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon,
  mainly across south-central MI, northeast IN and northwest OH.

- Dry, pleasant weather for Labor Day weekend.

- Dangerous rip currents and swimming conditions expected for Lake
  Michigan beaches through Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Cold front near the Michigan border will track south through
the area mid afternoon through early evening. Deeper
moisture/lift with an associated shortwave clips ne IN/nw OH/sc
MI with greatest coverage (50-70%) of showers/storms with cold
mid level temps overtop pooled moisture (near 60F sfc dewpoints)
supporting 500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE along the front. Lesser
coverage (10-30%) to west and south where larger scale
subsidence/drying overspreads the frontal zone. Brief downpours
and perhaps some small hail with stronger cores given the chilly
thermal profile aloft.

Northerly post-frontal flow will usher in another round of cooler
and drier air into Friday with highs struggling to reach 70F. Models
do continue to differ on how far lake clouds reach later
tonight into Friday morning within a subsidence inversion. Kept
with partly cloudy wording for now given the low confidence and
rather thin/shallow moisture profile.

The holiday weekend will feature pleasant weather conditions as sfc
high pressure settles in between anomalous ridging over central
Canada and an upper low meandering east through far southern Quebec
and northern New England. Dry and stable conditions will be locked
in with temperatures gradually on the rise (highs low-mid 70s
Saturday to near 80F by Labor Day).

Ensemble guidance and the bulk of deterministic solutions continue to
amplify an upper trough into the Eastern US during the mid-late week
periods. This will likely drive a strong cold front through around
Wednesday or Thursday with the next chance for showers/storms,
followed by breezy/cool conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1115 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Skies will clear rapidly through aftn in behind upper trough
pivoting across the terminals. Otherwise some post frontal IFR
cigs possible late tonight invof KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Friday morning for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T