550
FXUS63 KIWX 082041
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
341 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold wind chills tonight near zero.

- Seasonably mild temperatures with periods of snow and a rain
  mix through Wednesday night before turning back over into snow
  showers. Travel impacts appear limited at this time.

- Turning very cold again late this week into the weekend with
  highs only in the teens and low temperatures in the single
  digits.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Another cold night tonight however increase in clouds with a
shortwave disturbance moving eastward across the region may
once again keep temperatures a tad warmer. This coupled with the
beginning of a warm advection influx that will strengthen ahead
of a stronger disturbance in the form of a clipper type system
that will move through the Great Lakes region tomorrow. We will
see some light chances of snow showers with light accumulations
expected mainly north of US-30 this evening. However, the better
chances will be along the MI/IN state line.

With the clipper system moving through to the north of our CWA
the WAA plume will push northward into the area and bring warmer
temperatures for tomorrow and Wednesday. Highs each day will
finally warm to above freezing with values in the mid to upper
30s expected. This will also make the precipitation forecast a
bit more difficult especially at the onset of precipitation
tomorrow early evening for the northwestern portions of our area
then spreading southeasterly across the remainder of the CWA.
There is concern that there may be some freezing rain with the
onset of precipitation with the expectation of a mix of rain and
snow which any liquid precipitation would likely freeze on
contact with the still very cold surfaces being in the icebox
over the last 11 days or so. The periods of rain or snow or the
combination of the two will continue through Wednesday early
afternoon before beginning to switch over to all light snow
showers by Wednesday night with colder air advecting southward
across the area with a trough axis associated with a upper level
low centered over the Hudson Bay Canada region. Any snowfall
accumulations will be light with this system. Winds will be
gusty through this event especially on Wednesday with the
arrival of the trough. Gales on Lake Michigan look to be
likely.

This trough will also push down another punch of arctic air
across the area for the end of the week and through the weekend.
High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will again return to
below freezing with values in the mid to upper 20s. This trend
to colder will continue into the weekend with the coldest
temperatures on Saturday and Sunday with highs only in the teens
and lows in the single digits. Will need to monitor the wind
chills especially for Saturday as gusty winds look to be in play
with the tighter pressure gradients in place.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

No flight concerns for the next 12 hours or so as we await the
next in a series of systems that looks to graze the area after
6Z Tue. Sfc low will track well north of the area (Lk Superior)
with a warm front edging through late tonight into Tuesday. An
area of isentropic lift will exists along the front, with models
continuing to bring some light snow potential mainly across
Lower MI, with a narrow window of impacts from the snow possible
at KSBN. Maintained the prob30 mention for now 8-12Z Tue to
handle the currently limited potential. Behind the precip area,
cigs should drop to at least MVFR and quite possibly IFR as WAA
continues and traps low level moisture (at KSBN). Latest update
reflects this thinking. KFWA will likely miss the brunt of the
system in terms of impacts with maybe a period of some high end
MVFR cigs after 12Z Tue.

At both sites, winds will increase Tuesday out of the SW with
gusts to 25 kts possible.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Tuesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Fisher