387
FXUS64 KJAN 260519 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1219 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be near normal with a gradual warming trend
  into early next week.

- Conditions will be mostly dry across the forecast area with no
  clear signal for rain chances until late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Overall, the transition away from summer is appearing in the
synoptic pattern taking shape over the next week. Upper-level
ridging generally around the southern/central parts of the country
will still keep temperatures near to above normal in the broader
region. Split flow is noted in the guidance into next week, and
the southern jet stream around the periphery of the ridge will
carry embedded shortwave troughs and add more flow and shear to
the atmosphere. Very minor perturbations may bring a small chance
for showers or storms around Sunday/Monday, but the models
disagree whether ridging or troughing will be more established to
allow much. Either way, the conditions through the weekend into
early next week will be drier without concern for humidity causing
dangerous heat stress.

By the time we get to the middle of next week, the ensemble of
guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge and a more full-latitude
trough swinging from the western CONUS toward the central CONUS.
Being a bit early in the transitional time of year, confidence on
the timing of these features is very low. Guidance ensembles are
settling in on a solution that brings less rainfall threat
Wednesday, but greater potential by the end of the week. We will
continue to monitor this potential system as it marks a change
from the stagnant summer pattern to a potentially more potent
cool-season pattern. There will be significant subtropical
moisture related to east Pacific tropical cyclone activity that
could eventually support some locally heavy rainfall, but NCAR
AI-NWP guidance remain bearish with any severe probabilities.
/OAJ/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR prevails at all sites for the entire period with a few high
clouds streaming across the area./OAJ/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      87  63  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     89  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   89  65  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       91  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    90  65  91  65 /   0   0  10   0
Greenwood     89  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/OAJ