


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
651 FXUS64 KJAN 150546 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Tonight through Tuesday Night... Rain chances will diminish across the area heading into the evening with quiet conditions expected heading into the overnight period. Similar to yesterday evening, HREF guidance is showing low probabilities (10-20%) of patchy fog across the area. Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics at this time, however shallow patchy fog will be possible around dawn. Overnight lows will drop into the low 70s areawide. Quiet weather conditions will persist across our CWA through Tuesday morning as near term guidance continues to show a 1020mb sfc high gradually pushing northeast across the southeast CONUS. A few scattered showers cannot be ruled out. Humid conditions will persist across the area thanks to this sfc high which will lead to dangerous heat concerns across the region. Areas along and west of a line from Clay to Jackson to Laurel MS will have the best potential to see heat index readings between 106-110 degrees. No changes have been made and the "Elevated" risk for dangerous will continue to be advertised. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for tomorrow given the increased warming trends. Afternoon highs will peak into the mid to high 90s areawide. /CR/ Wednesday through Sunday... No changes have been made to the extended period. Dangerous heat will continue to be the main focus for the long term period with heat indices in the triple digits. Global guidance is still showing a 1020mb sfc high hovering over the southeast region looking ahead into Wednesday. As this high continues to hover over the region, humid conditions will persist across our CWA. Rain chances will start to increase across eastern portions of our forecast area thanks to northeasterly moist boundary layer advection. Elsewhere, areas west of I-55 will remain fairly dry. Dangerous heat conditions will continue across our entire forecast area Wednesday through Thursday with heat indices between 106-110 degrees. This is supported by model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro showing daytime highs in the mid/upper 90s, and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots reaching the low 80s. Wednesday and Thursday looks to be the hottest days with highs in the upper 90s. While multiple areas across our entire forecast area will have the best potential to see heat index readings in the 106- 110 range, there are a few isolated spots west of I-55 that could see heat indices greater than 110 degrees. Because of this, no changes have been made to the dangerous heat graphic for the Wednesday/Friday timeframe and the "Elevated" risk will continue to be advertised. Likewise, a "Limited" risk for increasing heat stress will continue to be advertised for areas east and northeast MS. Heat trends will continue to be monitored as we get through mid/late week. Further adjustments to the heat graphic will likely be needed heading into the mid week. if heat trends continue to increase, then a "Significant" risk for dangerous heat will be introduce for areas along and west of I-55 including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast LA parishes. In addition to the "Significant" risk being introduced, heat advisories/warnings will eventually be needed as well. Afternoon/early evening showers and storms will provide some relief from the heat. Both the GFS and the Euro continues to show convection coming to an end by the evening hours each day as daytime heating wanes. Global guidance is still showing a low pressure system moving along the Gulf coast by the mid-week. At the moment, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still monitoring for a low probability (around 10-30% chance) of tropical development. With tropical moisture pushing into the southeast region and PWATs in the 90th percentiles, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still highlight a "Slight" risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday and Friday. Additional updated will provided as we get closer to the late week. Rain chances will linger into Saturday afternoon/evening with higher PoPs (around 50-85%) along and east of I-55. Rain chances will linger heading into Sunday with decent PoPs (around 30-55%) across our CWA with slightly higher PoPs (around 60%) across the Pine Belt. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 There may be a few areas of sub-VFR stratus during the early to mid morning that briefly impact sites, but VFR conditions and light surface wind will prevail otherwise. Diurnal TSRA coverage should be more limited today with the subtropical high building more squarely over the forecast area. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 97 76 95 / 0 10 20 60 Meridian 74 97 74 93 / 10 20 20 70 Vicksburg 76 97 76 96 / 0 0 10 30 Hattiesburg 77 97 75 92 / 10 50 40 90 Natchez 74 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 60 Greenville 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 76 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/CR/