171
FXUS64 KJAN 141140
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
640 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Through Next Friday...

The weather will remain essentially the same over the next 7 days:
Daytime sporadic showers and thunderstorms forming in the mid
morning, steadily building in both coverage and intensity by mid
afternoon and tapering off through the waning daylight hours,
finally dissipating an hour or two after sunset.

Rain totals both from singular storms, and for the overarching week
remain pretty low (<2in/7days) so there are no concerns for flash
flooding. Some rivers remain elevated from last week`s rises so we
can expect these rivers to hover around the same levels, with no
significant relief in sight.

The big question will be the max expected intensity for these
storms, and over the weekend and into the early week the environment
does not support any strong organization and thus wind and hail will
remain below severe thresholds. Mid to late week it does look like
the overall synoptic pattern begins to sharpen and organize, and
this looks to be the timeframe with the highest probability for
severe storms. Since that`s still quite a few days out we`re not a
the point where our confidence is high enough regarding
timing/coverage to really elucidate on this further.

We will continue to monitor any shifts in the upper level pattern,
and attendant resolution shifts in order to dial in the threats,
if any,for next week.

Other than that, hot and humid days are in store with the heat index
steadily climbing day to day, Some sites should break into the
triple digit HIs by mid week, which could trigger some products

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Most TAF sites are VFR this morning, with the exception of
HBG/PIB/HEZ where low clouds are bringing intermittent MVFR/IFR
ceilings. Expect all sites to become VFR after 15Z and continue
through the period, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will
once again be possible this afternoon across much of the area,
which will bring occasional MVFR/IFR conditions to sites into this
evening. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  72  87  72 /  60  30  80  30
Meridian      90  70  89  71 /  70  30  90  30
Vicksburg     90  72  89  74 /  60  30  80  20
Hattiesburg   93  73  91  73 /  60  30  90  20
Natchez       89  72  88  73 /  60  30  80  20
Greenville    88  72  88  73 /  70  30  70  20
Greenwood     88  72  89  72 /  80  40  70  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15