198
FXUS64 KJAN 100114 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
714 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Freeze warnings are in effect for northern portions of the
    area tonight, and for the entire forecast area Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Through The Work Week...

The major point of concern/feature frigid cold front, the
strongest/reinforcing portion of which has already managed to clear
our area of responsibility, and now lingers off the Gulf coast. This
has brought some gusty winds throughout all forecast zones, ranging
in the mid 20s, which will continue for the rest of the day. Over
the next couple of days wind speeds will remain higher than normal.
This, along with fairly dry conditions has prompted a Limited fire
weather graphic valid for the early week for the entire area.

The most significant impact, however, will be temperatures
plummeting to at or below freezing overnight tonight and as the
frigid air mass following behind this front continues to funnel in
from the north, even colder temperatures are expected Monday
night into Tuesday morning. All counties/parishes will be below
freezing ranging around 25 kts. There is some model guidance that
previously was trending a few degrees warmer than the MOC,
however; even those resolutions have fallen in line with the low
temperature forecast. That is to say confidence is high and there
is little variance across all relevant outputs for the expected
lows. The lowest projected high temperatures, ranging in the mid
to high 40s, are forecast Monday afternoon.

We do see southerly flow returning to the area Tuesday afternoon
which will allow for temperatures to rebound into the mid 50s.
Overnight lows for Tuesday night bottom out above freezing, hovering
in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Finally, Wednesday onwards we see a
full recovery of our temperatures and swing back into the mid 70s
for the rest of the week, with lows in the 50s.

Next Weekend...

Guidance is showing an ejection of a shortwave upstream of us which
will track over the area sometime this weekend. This will bring some
much needed rainfall, with totals of about half an inch over the two
day period. There doesn`t appear to quite enough energy to fuel any
thunderstorm activity but as always with features a week out
specifics are a bit too hazy to message with a high degree of
confidence. /OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR flight categories will prevail through the next 24 hours. Gusty
northerly winds will lighten, still just around 10 mph, before
picking back up after 10/14-16Z Monday. Winds will be gusty Monday,
around 15-20mph sustained, gusts up to around 25mph through the
end of the TAF period. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       31  47  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      30  47  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     32  48  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   33  52  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       32  50  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    30  44  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     28  44  25  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     MSZ018-019-025>052.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ018-
     019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for
     ARZ074-075.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM Monday to 8 AM CST Tuesday for ARZ074-
     075.

&&

$$

OAJ/DC