392
FXUS64 KJAN 252319
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
619 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be near normal with a gradual warming trend
  into early next week.

- Conditions will be mostly dry across the forecast area with no
  clear signal for rain chances until late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Overall, the transition away from summer is appearing in the
synoptic pattern taking shape over the next week. Upper-level
ridging generally around the southern/central parts of the country
will still keep temperatures near to above normal in the broader
region. Split flow is noted in the guidance into next week, and
the southern jet stream around the periphery of the ridge will
carry embedded shortwave troughs and add more flow and shear to
the atmosphere. Very minor perturbations may bring a small chance
for showers or storms around Sunday/Monday, but the models
disagree whether ridging or troughing will be more established to
allow much. Either way, the conditions through the weekend into
early next week will be drier without concern for humidity causing
dangerous heat stress.

By the time we get to the middle of next week, the ensemble of
guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge and a more full-latitude
trough swinging from the western CONUS toward the central CONUS.
Being a bit early in the transitional time of year, confidence on
the timing of these features is very low. Guidance ensembles are
settling in on a solution that brings less rainfall threat
Wednesday, but greater potential by the end of the week. We will
continue to monitor this potential system as it marks a change
from the stagnant summer pattern to a potentially more potent
cool-season pattern. There will be significant subtropical
moisture related to east Pacific tropical cyclone activity that
could eventually support some locally heavy rainfall, but NCAR
AI-NWP guidance remain bearish with any severe probabilities.
/OAJ/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR prevails with scattered high clouds streaming across the area.
/SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  88  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      62  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     64  89  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   63  89  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       64  91  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    63  90  65  91 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     61  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/EC/SAS20