137
FXUS64 KJAN 211133
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
533 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rain chances will increase today with a chance for storms,
    including a low chance of a few stronger to an isolated
    severe storm

  - A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger
    storms remain a concern early next week (late Monday to
    Tuesday)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Through mid to late next week...

Through this weekend (Through Sunday): Synoptic analysis and water
vapor imagery this morning indicate shortwave across the Central
Plains ejecting to the northeast. Surface pattern indicate around
1010mb broad surface low in southern KS to northern OK. Frontal zone
has lifted northward, with shortwave/surface low slowly sliding
eastward into Saturday. Moist advection at the surface (low to mid
60s dewpoints climbing to upper 60s to low 70s into the afternoon
hours) and aloft (PWs climbing to 1.5-1.8 inches) combined with
broad jet dynamics/ascent will increase rain and storm coverage to
more scattered to widespread by the mid-morning to afternoon hours.
There should be a cluster of storms in eastern Louisiana, as
indicated by developing showers north of Baton Rouge area, that
lifts northward and becomes more the dominant feature. There remains
decent shear (20-40kts in the 0-3km to 0-6km layer, respectively)
and in conjunction with some destabilization, some stronger storms
and isolated severe storm can`t be fully ruled out. SPC added an
earlier Marginal risk area and will advertise for brief gusty storms
from mid morning through afternoon hours. There could be some
locally heavy rainfall, generally around an inch, but localized +2
inch totals can`t be fully ruled out. There shouldn`t be flooding
concerns due to limited residence time and recent persistent dryness.

Prior to frontal passage, rain chances will persist through weak
frontal convergence into the start of the weekend early Saturday.
Seasonably warm conditions are expected both Friday and Saturday,
with morning lows (18-24F above) and highs (10-16F above). Record
warm temperatures (highs and lows) are possible during this period.
Front will carve through the area early Saturday, driving a 1020-
1024mb surface high out of the central Plains to Mid South by late
weekend into Sunday. PWs will fall to around half an inch and
combined with shortwave ridging building through, drier conditions
and less seasonable warmth is expected late weekend on Sunday.

Next week (Monday-Thursday): As shortwave ridge builds eastward to
start the work week, a more potent cold core low aloft will be
moving out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains.
Sharp jet energy (75-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will
swing across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by
early week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more
potent surface 1004-1008mb low across the Central Plains and drive a
stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong
southwesterly shear (35-50kts) will set up but remain mostly line-
parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the 62-67F
degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With southwesterly
mean bulk shear, limited residence time of warm sector and less
favorable timing generally closer to the diurnal minimum, this looks
to be short duration potential. However, can`t fully rule out some
low end (non-zero) strong to severe potential Monday night into
Tuesday. There are some differences in amplitude of the filling
closed low aloft/shortwave, with the Euro slightly digging a little
more. This will affect how long rain chances persist another 24-36
hours. Rain totals will be sufficient, around 1.5 to 2 inches
(locally higher in convection or areas of training in line-parallel
storms). However, recent dryness and limited preceding rain
accumulation Friday limits confidence and holding off in HWO.
Synoptic discontinuity exists, with with Euro more progressive and
amplitude situated further north but stronger ascent and eastward
propagation, while GFS more sharp cold core over the Great
Lakes/northern Plains by midweek and continued southwesterly flow
and rain chances later Wednesday. Blended rain chances look on track
but may be a touch too slow. Regardless, 1028-1030mb surface high
will bring drier (PWs around quarter inch) and seasonably
cooler conditions into late next week. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Conditions are kind of all over the place this morning with low
ceilings and low visibility across the southeast. Rain showers
moving into the area seem to be leading to gradual improvement in
visibilities and ceiling, still expect these to remain a challenge
for a while longer. Conditions should improve mid to late morning
as ceilings and visibility lift to VFR. Intermittent showers
should continue throughout the day. Ceilings become a problem
again tonight with low stratus again persisting into the early
morning hours./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  64  78  52 /  60  20  10   0
Meridian      76  63  79  50 /  80  30  10   0
Vicksburg     79  64  78  52 /  60  20  10   0
Hattiesburg   81  65  83  53 /  70  20  10   0
Natchez       81  64  79  52 /  50  20  10   0
Greenville    78  60  74  50 /  30  30   0   0
Greenwood     77  62  76  50 /  50  40  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/DC/SAS20