349
FXUS64 KJAN 230548
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1248 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The forecast for the evening update remains on track and no changes
have been made at this time. Similar to the previous night, sfc
ridging aloft will continue to dominate our forecast through
midnight allowing for quiet conditions across our forecast area.
Sounding analysis from this evening indicate subtle capping due to
subsidence and drier air aloft around 850 mb. Because of this, cloud
cover will be generally clear across our CWA over the several hours
before increasing slightly across N/NW portions of central MS
starting a little after midnight. Overnight lows will drop into the
70s across the area. Updates are out. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Tonight through Monday night: Continued warmer than normal through
the period as ridging surface and aloft remains dominant but, rain
chances return to the northwest Monday evening. Mid afternoon
surface analysis had a 1015mb high centered over our CWA with a cold
front across the central Plains. Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP
analysis showed the circulation around a 592dam high centered over
Mexico and southern Texas. Also noted on satellite imagery was a
southern stream shortwave over the central Plains. The surface high
will flatten and become a ridge along the Gulf coast by Monday
evening while the mid level high flattens as well along the Gulf
coast. This will allow the southern stream shortwave trough to shift
east and help push the cold front closer to our western zones. Dry
weather is expected to continue through Monday but by Monday evening
the cold front will bring low chances of light rain across our
northwest most zones./22/

Tuesday through Saturday: Wl finally see a pattern change as by
Tuesday morning a closed low is expected to have developed over the
northern Plains. This closed low will drop to near the mid
Mississippi valley by Tuesday evening, deepening the mean upper
level trough over the central CONUS and helping to nudge the cold
front farther into our CWA. The the upper level flow becomes
parallel to the surface cold front, it is expected to stall across
our CWA. This will result in an expansion of rainfall to the
southeast over our CWA Tuesday that will continue into Wednesday.
The closed low will continue drifting south through Arkansas
Wednesday as a tropical cyclone likely develops in the southern
Gulf. Although there remain differences in the models, consensus has
the closed low meandering just west of our CWA and helping to steer
the tropical cyclone east of our CWA. The track and intensity of the
tropical cyclone will affect our forecast but with model consensus
at this time suggesting landfall east of Mississippi perhaps
Thursday heavy rain will be possible over east Mississippi. Current
storm totals Wednesday through Friday are two to three inches over
our eastern counties. Even though the potential tropical system
may pull away from our CWA Friday, models don`t lift the closed
low to our west out until Saturday. Temperatures will continue to
be warmer than normal through Tuesday night but cooler than normal
Wednesday with the stalled front across our CWA and the upper
level trough overhead. The cooler than normal temperatures will
continue through the end of the week provided our CWA remains on
the west side of any tropical system. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions and light S-SW surface wind will prevail through
the forecast period. An exception could be areas of early morning
BR/FG that impact mainly southern sites (HEZ-HBG/PIB corridor).
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  91  69  85 /   0  20  30  40
Meridian      70  92  69  85 /   0  10  30  40
Vicksburg     71  90  68  84 /  10  20  30  30
Hattiesburg   70  94  71  89 /   0  10  10  40
Natchez       69  91  69  85 /   0  20  20  30
Greenville    71  87  66  80 /  20  30  30  30
Greenwood     71  89  67  83 /  10  30  30  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

CR/22/EC