409
FXUS64 KJAN 240032 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the
  forecast area over the next several days.

- Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts remain
  possible across southern portions of the area today and
  spreading northward through Tuesday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This evening into tonight...

Evening analysis indicate ridging over the TX Panhandle to Desert
Southwest while the Gulf Coast region remains in the unsettled
trough/shear axis region. There remains a frontal zone settled
north of Interstate 20. A pocket of drier air remains across the
east to northern half of the area, with deeper moisture situated
to the south of the stationary front. A few storms have developed
on the southern fringes of the area, with the most robust
development in north-central LA. The strongest Theta E
advection/convergence is in the southwest and southeast, so
convection coverage will remain very isolated. There is some
deep layer shear around 20kts that could support some continued
isolated severe storm threat into tonight. Threat potential
probably winds down by 10-11PM. Heat and humidity is somewhat
improving but still have a large portion of heat indices in excess
of 95-100F degrees and temperatures still hovering above 88-95F
degrees. Heat advisory continues through 8PM with additional heat
concerns into Monday. Lows will remain seasonably warm (70-76F).
Updates are out. /DC/


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

This afternoon through tonight:

Hot/humid conditions will be ongoing through the afternoon.
Dangerous heat conditions is expected with greatest heat stress over
western/southern areas where heat indices reach 110 degrees are
expected. Heat Advisory will remain in effect through 8pm. A weak,
frontal boundary will provide the next storm chances along the HWY
84 corridor through the evening hours. A "Marginal" (1/5) risk for
severe weather with damaging winds as the primary hazard.

Monday through Saturday:

As the boundary progress southward, a round of elevated convection
will bring Monday pre-dawn rain chances to the Delta and central
MS. Afternoon temps will briefly "cool" temps to the low/mid 90s
with heat indices near 105. "Although temps will be in the low/mid
90s, a "Limited" (1/4) risk for heat stress is expected. An
additional "Slight" (2/5) risk for severe weather is expected for
Monday and "Marginal" (1/5) risk Tuesday afternoon/evening thanks
to incoming weak disturbances. The risk area will gradually move
northward towards the 1-20 corridor by Tuesday.

High pressure will retrograde towards the Southwest CONUS with a
trough axis setting up across the Southern CONUS. As a result,
northwest flow across the area will allow the disturbances to
increase afternoon rain chances through the end of the week.
Although rain chances will be present, heat will still be a concern
through the week. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound as heat
indices begin to increase to 110 degrees west of I-55. Heat
headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress.
/SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 732 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR flight conditions prevail through the period, but brief
restrictions to visibility may occur with any showers or storms
near KGLH and KGWO after 24/12Z Monday. Confidence in thunder
impacts was greatest to mention at those sites. Lower probs
(20-50%) exist at, with most TSRA probs after 24/19-21Z Monday.
Winds will be light and variable into Monday afternoon. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  95  73  93 /   0  50  40  50
Meridian      73  96  72  93 /  10  40  30  50
Vicksburg     74  95  74  95 /   0  40  30  30
Hattiesburg   74  97  74  93 /  20  50  50  70
Natchez       75  98  76  96 /  10  30  20  20
Greenville    74  93  73  96 /   0  60  50  50
Greenwood     72  92  71  93 /   0  60  50  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-
     034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

DC/NF/DC