343
FXUS64 KJAN 020529 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1129 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- We are monitoring for heavy rainfall threat associated with a
  cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly west of I-55.

- The aforementioned front could also carry a low end severe
  threat, primarily for damaging wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The pattern remains active over the next few days with persistent
longwave troughing over the region and several shortwaves and
strong jet energy. Intermittent low rain chances will stick around
throughout the week, but the greatest chances concern a system
anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Lingering showers in the near term will diminish as a shortwave
ridge works its way across our region tonight and Monday. But the
drier weather will be short-lived as the next system takes shape
Monday night. A shortwave trough will dig from over the Pacific
NW and phase with subtropical jet energy to aid in the lee
cyclogenesis off the Rockies. The corresponding surface low will
rapidly deepen as it tracks across the great plains. This should
create increasingly breezy conditions from later Monday into
Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. Increasing moisture
return and ascent will lead to storms developing along the front
west over Oklahoma and Texas, and these will push into our Tues
aftn/evening as the front approaches. The convection will become
more organized into a linear convective system that should move
across our forecast area Tue night.

With that said, lightning probabilities continue to suggest
weakening of the system with eastward extent, which makes sense
as low level forcing and instability weaken. The airmass will be
characterized by a deep warm cloud depth and anomalous deep layer
moisture, so expect another high-precip efficiency environment to
be in place. There are differences between this upcoming event
and what we just experienced. The potential to see rainfall that
is more widespread is greater given the uniform, progressive lift,
and this should keep amounts from becoming overly significant.
Locally heavy rainfall could still yield localized FF issues and
will keep our current messaging of a limited flood threat going.

There is a low end chance (marginal risk) for severe weather as
well with this system over western portions of the forecast area.
Linear storm mode and modest instability suggest primarily an
isolated damaging wind gust risk, and the REFS guidance along with
other near term high res guidance suggest the risk will be more
confined to northwest portions of the forecast area, right
along/west of the MS River.

Due to the secondary low development into Wednesday, moisture wrap
around lingers, so low (15-20%) rain chances continue through
Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts to generally under a tenth of
an inch. The jet remains active and persistent moist trajectories
may keep isolated rain chances around to end the week into next
weekend. We could see substantially cooler temperatures by next
Sunday as global ensembles show good agreement for significant
central/eastern CONUS troughing. /SAS/EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An abundance of stratus over the region will persist tonight, with a
mix of VFR and MVFR flight categories (with TAF sites in the west
possible IFR stratus overnight, generally after 02/08-10Z Monday).
Southeasterly winds prevail Monday, increasing through late
morning to around 15 mph, with gusts around 20 mph through 00z.
/86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  80  65  82 /  10   0   0  50
Meridian      58  78  62  79 /  10  10   0  10
Vicksburg     62  81  64  82 /  20  10  10  90
Hattiesburg   62  81  63  82 /  10  10  10  40
Natchez       64  81  67  83 /  30  20  10  80
Greenville    62  78  65  79 /  40  20  10  90
Greenwood     59  77  63  80 /  20   0   0  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/SAS20/LP