013
FXUS64 KJAN 141039
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An elevated threat for dangerous heat stress will continue
  through the weekend into next week. A Heat Advisory remains in
  effect, and an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for some
  portions of the area by early next week.

- Rain chances remain minimal through the weekend, with some
  isolated chances into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Today through next Friday...

No changes have been made to the forecast, and the overall messaging
of dangerous heat remains the same. The subtropical ridge will
continue to build, expand, and intensify over the southeast CONUS as
we go through the rest of the late week and into the weekend.
Subsidence beneath the ridge along with increased sunshine will
limit rain chances across the south today through Sunday with
afternoon highs peaking in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Although
some of the humidity will be eased due to the strengthened ridge,
the combination of heat and humidity will ensure that most days see
peak heat index reading values in the 105-110 degree range through
the weekend. No changes have been made to the heat graphic and a
"Elevated" risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised
for our entire forecast area into early next week. Likewise, the
areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 pm Sunday evening.

Dangerous heat will continue across the area heading into early next
week. Monday and Tuesday look to be the hottest days of the extended
period with several locations reaching the 100 degree mark. There is
a possibility that a few locations may reach 103 degrees and we may
see some new record highs being set, especially if the warmer
guidance overperforms.

There is a chance that portions of the "Elevated" risk could get
upgraded to a "Significant" risk for dangerous heat where heat
indices could exceed above 110 degrees as we get closer to Monday.
An Extreme Heat Warning may eventually be needed for portions of the
area for Monday and Tuesday. Given that this focus is still far
enough out in time, we will hold off on introducing "Significant"
heat risk for now. Additional heat headlines and advisories/warnings
may eventually be introduced as we get closer to the mid-week.

Regarding the rain chances, they are mostly non-existent until early
next week. At that time, global guidance continues to show a signal
for deeper moisture in the westerlies north of the high center to
circulate around the high and potentially increase convective
rainfall chances over eastern portions of the forecast area. Rain
chances could be further increased by an approaching frontal
boundary, but any relief from the heat that could result remains
uncertain at this time. Rain chances will start to increase
slightly across much of the area (15-25%) heading into Friday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson      100  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      99  76 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     99  74  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg  101  76 102  76 /   0   0  10  10
Natchez      100  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville   101  77 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     99  75 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/DL