188
FXUS64 KJAN 020536
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1236 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances increase on Friday. More widespread showers and
  storms are expected this weekend, along with heavier downpours.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into
  the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Tonight through next Wednesday...Moisture will subtly increase
across the region as southerly flow at the surface and aloft has
returned.  Rain chances will increase further on Friday, with good
chances continuing through the upcoming weekend, before backing down
during the first part of next week. The best rain chances through
this forecast period will again come Saturday and Sunday. This is
when the presence of a weakening trough will be most observed across
the forecast area, as ridging aloft flattens and gets nudged more to
the east of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This setup, coupled
with added ascent from the sub-tropical jet just to our north, and
daytime heating creating an unstable airmass, will yield mainly
afternoon showers and storms developing across the forecast area,
with some activity lingering into the evening hours each day.

At the moment, these storms are not expected to be severe. However,
some gusty winds can`t be ruled out with the more intense
thunderstorms. Due to the very dry soil conditions across the area
and overall rainfall being spread out over multiple days, widespread
flash flooding isn`t expected. However, localized heavy downpours in
a short amount of time and the potential for some training of
convection, could result in the ponding of water on roads and in low-
lying and poor drainage areas, again especially Saturday and Sunday.

Rain chances will begin to decrease from northwest to southeast
Monday into mid-week.  A cold front will shift southeast through the
CWA Monday.  Cool dry high pressure will build into the forecast
area in this front`s wake through mid-week.  Currently while rain
chances will come to an end across much of the area, some isolated
showers will remain possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi in
the vicinity of the front as it stalls across the north central
gulf.  This scenario will result in cooler drier conditions across
the forecast area as we begin the new work week. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Scattered showers will persist in the vicinity of GLH and GWO. Low
stratus low visibility is likely this morning, especially at HBG
and PIB. Scattered showers will develop near HBG and PIB later
this afternoon, but should taper off shortly after sunset. /SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       92  70  88  69 /  30  20  60  60
Meridian      91  69  87  69 /  40  30  60  60
Vicksburg     92  70  88  67 /  20  30  60  60
Hattiesburg   91  70  87  70 /  80  40  80  60
Natchez       93  70  88  69 /  30  10  70  60
Greenville    91  69  86  66 /  30  20  40  50
Greenwood     92  69  88  67 /  20  30  50  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19/19/SAS20