867
FXUS64 KJAN 301137
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
637 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Through this morning: cooling of a humid boundary layer following
the rainfall event over our forecast area is supporting areas of
fog and localized dense fog, especially over central Mississippi
where obs have occasionally dipped to a 1/4 mile. Have a issued
an HWO graphic and dense fog advisory accordingly given continued
elevated dense fog probs in the near term high res guidance. The
fog should begin to dissipate as we approach mid morning.

Otherwise, a persistent and unseasonably strong eastern CONUS
longwave trough will be the primary weather influence for the area
as we go from the weekend through the upcoming work week. Most of
the forecast will be on the dry side, but a few sneaky
disturbances in the cyclonic flow aloft may bring light to
moderate rainfall. This is especially the case for the early to
mid week time frame when there has been a signal in the global
model guidance for a more significant shortwave trough. This
trough would back low level flow to more southerly and provide
more substantial lift to bring greater shower chances.

By late week, strong reinforcement of the eastern CONUS trough
will provide a seasonably strong surge of cooler air into the
region. Lows in the mid/upper 50s should become more common by
Thursday night and Friday night. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Poor flying conditions will persist across central and east MS due
to a low stratus cloud deck and patchy fog. Multiple TAF sites will
continue to see IFR and LIFR ceilings and conditions through 14Z
Saturday morning. Conditions and visibilities will be slow to
improve after 14Z Saturday and a mixture of MVFR/IFR ceilings may
continue across central and south MS until after 17Z Saturday. VFR
conditions are expected Sat aftn but in the south isolated -SHRA/-
TSRA may come in vcty of the se TAF sites. Expect several amendments
to multiple TAF sites throughout the period as conditions worsen.
/CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       88  68  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
Meridian      87  66  88  66 /  10   0  10  10
Vicksburg     88  68  89  68 /  10   0  10  10
Hattiesburg   88  69  89  69 /  30   0  10  10
Natchez       86  69  88  68 /  20  10  10  10
Greenville    91  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     92  66  91  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ027>033-
     035>059.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-025.

AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/CR