516
FXUS64 KJAN 170144 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
844 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

With most of the area worked over by earlier convection, the radar
scope is much clearer early this evening, though there are still
a few showers lingering across north LA and south AR. Though we
are still keeping an eye on the potential for nocturnal/early
morning redevelopment, the most recent CAM runs have been less
prolific with QPF and slower to redevelop convection than runs
earlier this afternoon. Still, it seems quite likely that
activity will develop earlier in the day tomorrow much like it
did today. Otherwise, development of low stratus is likely across
much of the area overnight and patchy fog cannot be ruled out. No
big changes are planned to the near term forecast at this time.
/DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Tonight through Tuesday night: Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP
analysis showed a shortwave trough axis just to the west of our CWA.
Mid afternoon surface analysis had a ridge nosing west across the
northern Gulf. The combined deep south to southwest flow was helping
maintain our moist airmass with a PWAT of two inches. This deep
moisture combined with daytime heating was lighting up local radars
with scattered to numerous coverage of convection outside of our
delta region. The convection was moving up from the south and will
continue to expand across the delta region and northern zones
through early evening before waining with the loss of daytime
heating. The local microburst checklist showed a slight chance this
afternoon but some of the early convection has held temperatures a
little cooler than expected so far. Although model consensus progs
very little convection overnight, a few hi-res models indicate
potential redevelop along with very high rainfall rates over the
western portions of our delta. The shortwave trough will become
centered over our CWA Tuesday and weaken through Tuesday night. The
surface ridge to our south will remain in place so Tuesday will
likely be very similar to today. Daytime heating of our moist
airmass will lead to scattered to numerous convection that will
likely get an early start in the south again. The early start to
convection and associated cloud cover will help afternoon highs
cooler than normal. The convection will show a distinct diurnal
trend and gradually dissipate during the evening.

Wednesday through Sunday: Wednesday another shortwave trough will
be dropping through the central Plains. This shortwave trough
will be supporting a surface low that will send a weak cold front
our way. The daytime convection will be more focused over our
southeast but Wednesday night into Thursday rain chances will
increase across our north as the cold front and associated
convection spreads into our CWA. The cold front is expected to
stall across our northern zones Thursday afternoon before drifting
back north Thursday night.

By Friday wl still have a surface ridge to our south but wl start to
become under the influence of a 594dam high from the west. This high
will be shifting east and become centered over the southeast state
Saturday and strengthen over the southeast states Sunday. This will
lead to lower rain chances over our CWA along with afternoon highs
topping out a degree or two warmer each afternoon in the mid 90s.
The high temperatures combined with high humidity will lead to peak
heat index values between 105F and 110F. As the first day of Summer
will start Friday evening it seems rather appropriate that a heat
related graphic and product be carried at that time. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Most SHRA and TS activity from earlier today has moved out of the
area, with only light RA lingering in some areas. Redevelopment
of SHRA and TS is possible late tonight through Tue morning,
increasing in coverage through the daytime again Tuesday. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are expected to develop overnight and patchy fog can`t
be ruled out. VFR conditions will return at most sites by midday
outside of SHRA and TS impacts. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  87  73  91 /  40  70  10  40
Meridian      71  88  72  91 /  30  80  10  60
Vicksburg     72  87  74  91 /  50  60   0  20
Hattiesburg   73  90  74  93 /  20  80  10  70
Natchez       72  87  73  89 /  30  70   0  40
Greenville    72  87  74  90 /  70  70   0  10
Greenwood     72  86  73  91 /  70  80  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/22