267
FXUS64 KJAN 291142
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
542 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rainfall and perhaps a few storms this weekend will be
    followed by colder conditions as we go into next week.

  - We are monitoring the potential for light freezing rain over
    far northwest portions of the area Monday morning.

  - Locally heavy rainfall is expected Monday through Monday
    night.

  - It will remain colder than normal with another potential rain
    event late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The forecast for the next seven days can be best described as
colder and wetter than normal. In the big picture, a broad and
cold upper longwave trough will encompass much of the nation, and
this will tend to keep the storm track suppressed to the south
while allowing multiple intrusions of cold polar air into the
Deep South region. In terms of impacts to the forecast area, these
mostly focus on the potential for heavier rain amounts, and even
some light ice accumulation over far northwest portions of the
area given the influx of colder air.

Tonight through Sunday: The first in a series of shortwave troughs
rotating through the longwave trough will send a polar front
toward the forecast area tonight, and then across the entire area
by late Sunday. The lift, moisture transport, and instability
associated with the front will not be great, so thunderstorm
potential will be very limited, and rainfall should be mostly
light to moderate. The air following the front will be quite
chilly and dense, and should easily envelop most of the forecast
area by Sunday afternoon, and rain chances should diminish in the
colder and at least temporarily drier air.

Sunday night through Monday night: Most of the forecast concerns
occur during this period in association with the next more
significant shortwave trough expected to move across the Southern
Plains Monday and into our region Monday night. As the trough
approaches, the low to mid level flow will back above an
increasingly shallow frontal inversion. Moist isentropic ascent
should quickly develop late Sunday night into Monday morning
resulting in the development of considerable light rain showers.
While the warm thermal nose aloft will be well above freezing, for
the southeast AR to northwest MS area, most guidance indicate
that surface temperatures will be near to just below freezing as
precip chances begin. Have thus included a slight chance/chance of
light freezing rain in this area for the hours near daybreak. Any
ice accumulation would be light with minimal impact limited to
slick bridges/overpasses and light accumulation in trees, IF it
occurs. Otherwise, all rain is expected later Monday through
Monday night, and with moisture (e.g., H850 theta-e 330K+ and
precipitable water > 1.5 inches) and ascent increasing
significantly north of a developing surface frontal wave, rainfall
could become locally heavy in spite of the limited instability,
especially over the southeast half of the area. As of now, no
formal messaging is required for this event in terms of wintry
precip and/or rainfall, but will be monitoring for any upticks in
new guidance as we get closer.

Tuesday through Wednesday night look drier and quite chilly,
especially Tuesday when blustery north-northwest wind behind the
departing system will make for very uncomfortable conditions in
strong cold advection. Temperatures should struggle to rise much
above 40 F during the afternoon, and depending on how quickly
skies clear out, some locations may struggle to even reach 40 F.
Clearing skies and diminishing wind under high pressure Tuesday
night should allow temperatures to fall well below freezing for
much of the area, then modification of the airmass will allow
temperatures to rebound a good bit by Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday through Friday: The next significant shortwave trough
will most likely approach Thursday resulting in the development of
another frontal wave with increased warm advection over the
forecast area. At this point forecast confidence is on the low
side in terms of how significant this event will be, but we`re
seen a signal in global model ensembles for the potential of heavy
rain at some point in the Thu-Fri time frame. Once again, this
system track should be suppressed to near the coast, and therefore
any severe weather potential will be just about non-existent in
the continued chilly airmass. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR largely prevails with OVC100 at most sites today. -SHRA is
beginning to move into the area this morning from the west and
will continue to increase in coverage throughout the day today.
Wind gusts out of the southeast this afternoon around 20kts at GWO
and GLH. Winds could potentially gust at these same sites in
excess of 20kts out of the north northwest tomorrow morning. MVFR
ceilings will move into the area in the wake of the rain early
tomorrow morning./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       60  44  52  38 /  20  80  60  20
Meridian      60  45  54  36 /  10  50  70  20
Vicksburg     61  40  50  37 /  40  80  50  30
Hattiesburg   66  50  62  42 /   0  30  60  20
Natchez       66  44  53  39 /  30  80  60  30
Greenville    54  35  44  32 /  60  90  20  20
Greenwood     55  37  47  33 /  50  90  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

EC/EC/SAS20