307
FXUS64 KJAN 161846
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1246 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end
    of this week.

  - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
    week as a frontal boundary moves into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Through late next week:

Upper ridging through much of the period will keep weather quiet and
promote much above normal temperatures, about 10-15 degrees (JAN
normal high is 68 for reference) with temperatures in the low to
even mid 80s by mid week. A weak dry cold front will sag into
northern areas tonight and will allow slightly cooler overnight lows
Monday morning in GTR (mid 40s). Thereafter, low temperatures will
be in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Our next rainmaker looks to be in the Thursday into Friday time
frame. There is uncertainty regarding the evolution of this system,
with a range of scenarios possible. Generally, a few things could
happen. The front could be faster, more progressive. In this
scenario, shear would be stronger and upper forcing would better
support the front and storm organization. However, instability
would likely be weaker, with less time for recovery, which limits
stronger storm potential to the south.

Then, there is the slower scenario where the front hangs back west
Thursday and possibly into Friday and is slow to move across the
area. While this allows for more instability and better recovery of
airmass, upper forcing is departing the area, leaving a slower,
weakly forced front to drag across the area and weaker shear. This
also leads to rising heights in the wake of the shortwave. This
would likely be less organized and thus less severe.

Lastly, as shown in some AI guidance, the ridge could be strong
enough to deflect upper forcing to the northwest, in which case
organized storms are unlikely in our area. This is supported by AI
and ML probs as well, with severe probs trending west.

Perhaps of somewhat greater confidence appears to be the potential
for flash flooding. Some areas, particularly west I-55, could see
enough decent rainfall over a short period that flash flooding
cannot be ruled out. An anomalous plume of moisture (near 2 inch
PWAT), as well as deep warm cloud layer, should lead to efficient
rainfall rates. There is also the chance for training storms along
the boundary, so this may need to be watched closely. Additionally,
recent freeze has lead to dormant vegetation which could lead to
more runoff than during the warm season, so thresholds may be lower.
Also of note, if the front slows or even stalls, this could set up
an even worse case, with potential for rainfall totals to
accumulate over a certain area. This potential event still has a
lot of questions and uncertainty, so will continue to update in
future issuances. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

A layer of scattered to broken stratocumulus clouds is producing
areas of MVFR ceilings at the start of the period. Clouds should
mix and lift into prevailing VFR conditions at all sites by 00Z
Monday. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       58  80  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      52  77  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     59  82  61  83 /   0  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   57  82  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       59  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    55  77  62  81 /  10  10   0   0
Greenwood     52  75  61  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS20/NF