523
FXUS64 KJAN 061116
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
616 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
   across the area into Tuesday. Locally heavy downpours are
   possible in some areas.

 - Drier conditions with cooler mornings will return during the
   latter half of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Through Tuesday: Periodic shower activity will stick around into
tomorrow as a weak shortwave continues to meander nearby within a
fairly moist regime. One of the primary focusing mechanisms
driving rain development and coverage is a mesoscale surface low
currently situated over Central LA. Overnight this has helped
sustain a slow moving north/south band of showers just west of the
I-55 corridor in South MS. This low is expected to lift northward
through today, then ultimately eastward as it encounters an
advancing upper trough and cold front. Through the near term,
much of the shower and occasional thunder activity will likely be
focused in bands associated with this low as it gradually lifts
across/nearby the area. This will result in large discrepancies
in rain amounts, with some locations that experience training
rain bands receiving a few inches of rain while most other areas
pick up less than a quarter inch.

Wednesday through Sunday: As the upper trough shifts eastward
later this week, it will slowly nudge a cold front southward
across the area Wednesday into Thursday. This will result in an
appreciable decrease in deep layer moisture, ending rain chances
for the end of the week. Within the drier regime, daytime
temperatures will remain close to normal, but morning lows should
be noticeably cooler compared to recent days, albeit still near
seasonal norms. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

TAFs continue to be IFR/MVFR with ceilings 700ft-1500ft this
morning, accompanied by rain showers. Most of the heavier rain is
avoiding TAF sites. Conditions will improve to VFR this afternoon
before dropping back into MVFR/IFR overnight tonight. There is
signal for some low visibilities/fog at southern sites HEZ, HBG,
and PIB, as well as widespread low stratus for tomorrow
morning./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       86  71  88  69 /  40  30  30  20
Meridian      83  68  88  68 /  50  30  30  20
Vicksburg     86  71  89  69 /  60  40  30  10
Hattiesburg   87  71  89  70 /  60  20  30  10
Natchez       86  69  90  69 /  60  30  20  10
Greenville    83  70  85  68 /  70  60  50  20
Greenwood     85  70  88  68 /  60  60  50  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/DL/SAS20