Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
945 FXUS62 KJAX 301737 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 137 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Hot Today with Peak Heat Index Values 103 to 107 degrees - Daily Mainly Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms. Today: Isolated Strong Storms I-75 Corridor This Afternoon. Wed Thu: Mainly Inland Northeast Florida (between HWY 301 & I-75). Fri Weekend: Increasing chances including Southeast GA - Moderate Rip Current Risk SE GA & NE FL Beaches Today - Minor River Flooding for Satilla River && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights Today and Tonight: - Isolated strong storm potential I-75 corridor this afternoon - Seasonably Hot and Humid with heat index peaking at 103-107 Large, dominant ridging that has been the dominant upper level feature over the last several days has shifted to the north, centered over the southern Appalachians. A weak impulse riding the periphery of the upper ridge sent a surface front through the area this morning. Despite the frontal passage, moist low levels and temperatures rising into the low 90s has promoted ample instability early this afternoon. While instability and low level moisture are available, there`s a tight gradient in deep moisture along I-10 where dry air in the mid levels has advected into SE GA and high-grade moisture has been pooled to the south, with satellite derived PWAT estimated around 2- 2.25" across north-central FL. This stratification in moisture will focus the potential for stronger convection inland toward the I-75 corridor generally from Gainesville southward this afternoon. However, chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remains possible for areas along and west of US 301. Main t`storm concerns will be gusty downburst winds possibly up to 50 mph, heavy rainfall which may lead to minor flooding, and occasional to frequent lightning activity. By late this afternoon, northeasterly flow will drive the convection inland toward the Gulf coast through the late afternoon, shifting west of the area by sunset. Overnight, onshore flow will keep areas near the coast mild in the upper 70s and low 80s while inland areas fall to the low 70s under mostly clear skies. There will be a chance for early and mid morning coastal showers for NE FL as the frontal remnants lift back to the north as inverted trough Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Breezy East Winds & Elevated Rip Current Risk - Inland Strong Afternoon & Evening Storms Northeast FL Convection will be limited to along and south of I-10 on Wednesday afternoon and evening as northeasterly steering flow brings power PWATs (near 1.5") to the area. The location of storm coverage will allow for southeast Georgia`s high temperatures to soar into the mid 90s inland, with temperatures a little cooler in the lower 90s for inland northeast Florida. Along the Atlantic coast, onshore winds will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s and mild lows in the mid to upper 70s. These onshore winds will also likely bring isolated to scattered showers along the northeast Florida coast in the morning hours both days. Similar temperatures are expected again on Thursday, with more widespread scattered showers and storms but the area of focus for stronger storms will be over north central Florida where sea breezes interact. Despite hot high temperatures, lower dewpoints will keep maximum afternoon heat indices in the 95- 100 range both days. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Higher Storm Chances Return for Northeast FL - Building Heat for Southeast GA Steering flow becomes more southerly Friday onward, increasing storm chances, especially over inland northeast Florida through the Holiday weekend. PWATs generally over 2.0" inches and interacting sea breezes will prompt heavy rainfall and gusty wind threats with any strong storm developments in the afternoons and evenings each day. By Saturday and Sunday, flow becomes a little more southwesterly, bringing the higher storm chances all the way to the Atlantic coast. Temperatures will generally be near normal during this period, highs in the lower to mid 90s, and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Maximum heat index values will be around 100-105 each day, but some locations in northeast Florida may flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected should prevail through the afternoon for airfields along I-95. Periods of MVFR ceilings are likely on and off at KSSI and KSGJ through period, especially overnight as stratocumulus pushes onshore. Main concern for +TSRA impacts will be along the I-75 corridor, including KGNV, this afternoon followed by activity shifting west toward the Gulf by 22z. East-northeasterly winds will prevail through the afternoon with gusts up to 30 knots near the coast. Winds back and lighten overnight in advance of an inverted trough. Showers associated with the trough are expected to push into the coastal airfields from KJAX southward during the morning hours Wednesday with northeasterly winds increasing to speeds similar to this afternoon. && .MARINE... An onshore breeze continues overnight followed by strengthening northeasterly winds Wednesday as frontal remnants shift northward toward the waters as an inverted trough. The tightening pressure gradient between the trough and wedging high pressure north of it will lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions for northeast FL and southeast GA coastal waters. The trough will bring increased thunderstorm chances Wednesday and into Thursday as it weakens and lifts north of the area. Winds will lighten and turn southerly behind the trough on Friday as high pressure builds to the east. Ridging will progressively slide southeast through the weekend resulting in offshore flow and increased afternoon and early evening thunderstorm chances. Rip Currents: Onshore winds and surf increasing to 2 to 3 feet will result in Moderate risk for rip currents this afternoon. Increasing northeasterly winds Wednesday will elevate the rip current risk toward the upper end of Moderate and potentially high for NE FL beaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Easterly winds will continue through Wednesday, increasing during the afternoon with the inland progression of the Atlantic sea breeze. Wind gusts up to 25 mph will be possible, especially near the coast and extending inland toward the St. Johns River basin. A drier airmass will support mostly dry conditions Wednesday across areas north of Interstate 10, including the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge and the Osceola National Forest, while the greatest afternoon and evening thunderstorm coverage will be confined to north-central Florida each day. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above critical fire weather thresholds, although high daytime dispersion is expected Wednesday over inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not anticipated through the period. Any stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and strong, erratic wind gusts, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .HYDROLOGY... Satilla River at Atkinson will remain in Minor Flood through the weekend but will continue to gradually lower. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 72 94 70 / 30 10 0 0 SSI 88 79 89 78 / 10 10 0 10 JAX 91 75 91 75 / 20 10 10 10 SGJ 90 77 90 77 / 10 20 50 20 GNV 94 74 93 72 / 60 10 30 0 OCF 94 74 92 73 / 80 20 40 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$