487
FXUS62 KJAX 011328
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
828 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday
Morning: Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday &
Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards: Gusty
40-60 mph & Isolated Tornadoes

- High Risk for Rip Currents Northeast FL Beaches Today,
  Moderate for Southeast GA

- Small Craft Advisory Offshore Waters Tuesday

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

&&

.UPDATE...
No major updates for today. Mostly cloudy skies across the forecast
area with radar showing likely virga with no observations so far
showing any precipitation at this time. The mostly minor updates
were to adjust max temps slightly down today along the coast
and update the POPs for rest of today based largely on trends
and guidance. Think any thunder associated with approaching mid
level trough will hold off until late tonight and into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak front will continue to push through the local area through
the morning, increasing cloud cover. Low temperatures will generally
be in the 50s to low 60s.

Shower potential will start off near the I-10 corridor later this
morning, then spreading across most of southeast Georgia and
northeast Florida through the afternoon as the front stalls near
north central Florida. Thunder probabilities are low during the day
on Monday. High temperatures will be pretty close to normal, upper
60s across southeast Georgia and low 70s for northeast Florida with
heavy cloud cover and onshore winds.

Overnight, a stronger frontal system will approach from the
northwest, increasing isolated storm chances after midnight,
especially for inland southeast Georgia and over the local waters.
Higher storm coverage / strong storm potential will increase after
daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers with isolated thunderstorms will bring needed rainfall
Tuesday, with the potential for a few stronger storms mainly across
northeast Florida Tuesday morning into the afternoon where higher,
although limited, surface based instability will reside. A more
widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will move across
southeast Georgia through Tuesday morning as a broad surface low
moves from the Gulf toward the northeast along the cold front.
Farther south across northeast Florida, showers and isolated storms
will move inland from the Gulf across the Suwannee River Valley
preceding the surface cold front after daybreak Tuesday morning and
expand eastward toward the Atlantic coast into the afternoon.

A dry slot of mid level air across northeast FL will enable more
surface heating compared to SE GA ahead of this front, with latest
HREF advertising MUCAPE 400-700 J/kg peaking across the Suwannee
River Valley toward the SE GA Golden Isles Tuesday morning (after 7
am) and shifting eastward toward the northeast FL Atlantic coast
through about 2 pm, coincident with about 35-45 kts of bulk shear
and strong 850 mb winds of 40-50 kts. Although stronger shear will
exist across southeast GA, the lack of instability will limit strong
to severe thunderstorm risk. The stronger to isolated severe storm
risk will be across NE FL, especially the Suwannee Rive Valley,
Tuesday morning and toward the NE FL Atlantic coast through early
afternoon. The stronger storm threats will be localized damaging
winds of 40-60 mph and isolated tornadoes. As dynamics lift out the
northeast into late Tuesday afternoon, precipitation will further
decrease in coverage across northeast and north-central FL as the
front presses farther south of the area into Tuesday evening. In
addition to strong gusts from thunderstorms, non-convective wind
gusts of 30-35 mph will be possible at times across northeast FL,
below local Wind Advisory criterion.

Needed wetting rainfall is expected with this system, with
accumulations of 0.5 to 1.0 inches across inland southeast GA to
less than 0.25" south and southeast of JAX to Gainesville. Although
these accumulations will put a very minor divot in local fall season
deficits, this rain event is just the first wave of a general
pattern shift with what looks to be a wetter weekend in store.

Dry conditions are expected Tue night through Wed night as high
pressure builds northwest then north of the region, with a weak
pressure pattern in place. Main weather impact this period will be
inland patchy to areas of frost across southeast GA, with the better
coverage Wed night/Thu morning due to near calm winds.

Temperatures will trend above normal Tuesday in the warm sector in
the 70s to near 80, while north of the warm front near the Altamaha
and Ocmulgee River basins highs will near normal in the mid to upper
60s. Trailing the front, highs will fall back to near to below
normal Wednesday and generally range in the 60s with some mid/upper
50s across inland SE GA.

Overnight lows plummet Tuesday night into the mid/upper 30s across
SE GA to the 40s across NE FL by sunrise Wednesday, but light winds
will keep wind chills above cold weather advisory criteria. Even
colder Wednesday night into Thu morning, with more widespread inland
frost expected as lows fall into the mid 30s across inland SE GA and
Suwannee River Valley to the 40s toward the Atlantic coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry and seasonably cool Wednesday and Thursday with inland frost
potential across SE GA both Wednesday morning and Thursday morning
with weak high pressure dominating north of the region.

Rain chances return late Friday with a warm-up as a warm front lifts
across the area ahead of the next approaching cold front. Latest
model guidance is showing a similar scenario with a Gulf Low
tracking NE along the approaching cold front brining more widespread
rainfall across SE GA Friday night into Saturday, with more
scattered showers and storms across northeast FL as the front slows
its approach toward NE FL and begins to stall/linger somewhere
across the southern region into the weekend. This scenario would
bring periods of needed rainfall. Mild temperatures expected from
above normal on Friday to near to below normal highs into the
weekend with cloud cover and passing showers. General drying trend
late Sunday into Monday with rainfall shifting south of the area and
high pressure building to the north with cooler temperatures near to
just below climo early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
VFR mid to high clouds at this time but increased chances of MVFR
cigs expected for the coastal TAFs but the 15z to 19z time frame as
the northeast winds bring in low level moisture. By 18z to 20z, we
have the lower MVFR ceilings impacting SSI and the Duval sites.
After about 00Z Tuesday towards the end of this TAF period, most of
the TAF sites should see MVFR to IFR ceilings as a stronger front
approaches. Rain chances come up to about 20-30 percent toward the
end of the TAF period for all TAFs except SGJ so PROB30 groups are
in place.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will move south southeast across area today. The front
will lift back north across area as a warm front late tonight, as an
area of low pressure lifts northeast out of the Gulf. As this low
tracks northeast across the southeastern states, a cold front will
move through Tuesday. A round of showers and thunderstorms will
accompany this frontal passage. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected, beginning early Tuesday morning.

Rip Currents: For Today, high risk for northeast FL, and moderate
for southeast GA. For Tuesday, moderate risk is posted.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weak front will move south of the area today with a low chance of
passing showers and breezy northeast winds at the coast. This front
will then lift back north as a warm front tonight, trailed by
increasing south winds and rain chances ahead of an approaching cold
front. Showers and isolated strong thunderstorms will move across
the area Tuesday, brining widespread wetting rainfall to most of
southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida, with lower
rainfall amounts toward north-central Florida. Breezy southwest
winds are expected outside of thunderstorm activity Tuesday, mainly
across northeast Florida. Rainfall will end Tuesday evening as the
front presses south of the area. Dry conditions are expected by
Wednesday with lower humidity under north winds, but lower
dispersion due to weak transport winds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Gusty and erratic winds will
occur from thunderstorm activity Tuesday. Some rainfall is expected,
but lightning strikes may cause wildfires due to dry fuels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  67  34  59 /  80  90  10   0
SSI  59  73  43  61 /  60  70   0   0
JAX  60  77  42  65 /  50  70   0   0
SGJ  64  79  49  66 /  30  50   0   0
GNV  62  79  46  67 /  40  80   0   0
OCF  63  79  49  68 /  30  70   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$