735
FXUS62 KJAX 291124
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
724 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Coastal Flood Warning Moderate Flooding along Portions of the
  Northeast FL Atlantic Coast & Intracoastal Waterway through
  Early this Afternoon. Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal
  Flooding within the St. Johns River Basin. Coastal Flood
  Advisory for Coastal Southeast GA and Coastal Nassau County
  FL for Minor Flooding Around Times of High Tide. High Surf
  Advisory through Late Thursday Night at Northeast FL Beaches.
  High Rip Current Risk at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming
  Weekend. Small Craft Advisories for the Atlantic Waters
  through Friday and Saturday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through early this
Afternoon for Most of the Northeast FL Atlantic Coast and
Intracoastal Waterway. Coastal Flood Advisories are now posted along
the Southeast GA Atlantic Coast and portions of the Northeast FL
Atlantic Coast.

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St. Johns
River Basin Continues. High Surf Advisory Continues through Tonight
at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area
Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Additional Beach Erosion is
Expected around Times of High Tide. Small Craft Advisory for the
Atlantic Waters through at least Friday.

Early morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1032
millibars) now centered east of coastal New England, with this
feature extending its axis southwestward across the southern
Appalachians. Meanwhile, a wavy and stationary frontal boundary was
stretching from Cuba east-northeastward across the northern Bahamas.
Aloft...ridging positioned over the southern Gulf continues to nudge
its axis northeastward across our region, while troughing previously
cutoff over the Bahamas was lifting northeastward and further away
from our region. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water
imagery indicates that deep onshore flow was scouring out the
seasonably dry air mass that was in place across inland southeast GA
and the northern Suwannee Valley, where PWATs have risen slightly to
the 0.75 to 1 inch range, while values elsewhere were now in the 1-
1.5 inch range. Low stratus cloud cover continues to expand in this
increasingly moist air mass for locations south of Waycross, with
breaks in this stratus over southern portions of the St. Johns River
basin. Temperatures at 08Z were mostly in the low to mid 60s across
inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, ranging to the upper
60s and lower 70s elsewhere. Dewpoints ranged from the upper 50s for
locations north of Waycross in southeast GA to the 60s elsewhere.

Low stratus cloud cover should continue to overspread locations to
the south and east of Waycross through the early morning hours. This
cloud cover should lift to a cumulus deck by the late morning hours,
with additional marine stratocumulus cloud cover advecting onshore
through tonight as weakening high pressure over the southeastern
states and stubborn coastal troughing situated over our near shore
Atlantic waters maintain breezy northeasterly low and mid level flow
across our area. This convergent flow and ample moisture will likely
bands of scattered to numerous showers through tonight over the
Atlantic waters that will advect onshore across coastal northeast
FL, mainly for locations south of Mayport. This activity should move
across the St. Johns River to the south of Jacksonville later this
morning, perhaps approaching locations along and east of the U.S.
Highway 301 corridor in northeast and north central FL this
afternoon and evening. Plenty of cloud cover and breezy
northeasterly winds will keep coastal highs mostly in the mid to
upper 70s, with breaks in the cloud cover late this morning and
early this afternoon boosting inland highs to the lower 80s, with a
few mid 80s possible across north central FL.

Marine stratocumulus will continue to stream onshore across our
region tonight, which should limit the potential for lower stratus
clouds to redevelop across our area overnight. Bands of isolated to
widely scattered showers may continue to advect across coastal
northeast FL and southern portions of the St. Johns River basin,
mainly for locations from St. Augustine to Green Cove Springs and
points southward. Winds will decouple at inland locations in
southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley overnight, with breaks
in the stratocumulus allowing lows to fall to the upper 50s and
lower 60s. Lows elsewhere will remain in the mid and upper 60s,
except around 70 at the northeast FL beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period: Friday through Saturday Night

- Coastal Hazards Continue, Especially for the St. Johns River

- Thunderstorm Potential for Northeast FL Saturday Night

Onshore flow will remain rather unchanged and "status quo" on Friday
with similar breezy flow and occasional coastal showers similar to
the previous several days. The primary changes will come Friday
Night and into Saturday, as a backdoor type of cold front quickly
moves southward across our region, and a "re-enforcing" ridge of
high pressure builds across the southeastern states in its wake.
This will enhance the flow a bit on Saturday for northeast FL but
especially southeast GA where this flow has been lighter on average.
Isolated to scattered showers near the coast and portions of
northeast FL will also persist, as temperatures also drop a bit as
well with mid to upper 70s more common overall after more of a range
of mid 70s to low 80s on Friday. A few showers will also be possible
even into inland areas during the day on Saturday as well, as the
front quickly drops southward. Instability will be limited, and
therefore thunderstorms do not appear likely.

Things start to get more active Saturday Night as guidance is in
good agreement with respect to some shortwave energy moving into
northeast FL and southeast GA. This energy will interact with the
now nearly stationary front just south of our region, and combined
with the beginnings or moisture advection into our southern counties
will result in an increase in shower activity as well as some
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm potential. This will
spread northward into Sunday, though more on that below.

Regarding Coastal Hazards: Most if not all of the ongoing hazards
are expected to continue Friday and into the weekend, especially
within the St. Johns River as higher water levels will remain the
most trapped. We will continue to evaluate levels over the coming
days, but at least Coastal Flood Advisories are likely to continue
area-wide, with Coastal Flood Warnings possible to continue for at
least upstream portions of the St. Johns River.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: Saturday through Wednesday

- Coastal Hazards Likely to Continue through at Least the Weekend

- Thunderstorm Potential Sunday

Sunday is expected to be a warmer, more humid and active day as
short wave energy moves through the region, resulting in more
widespread showers and t`storms, especially across northeast FL
closer to the stationary boundary just south of the area. Onshore
flow will then return for at least Monday and into Tuesday as high
pressure to our northeast moves very little, before a much stronger
front approaches the area around Wednesday/Wednesday Night. Though
we will be moving away from the full moon, tidal flooding is likely
to continue into the long term, especially for portions of the St.
Johns River where elevated water levels will have the hardest time
receding. Temperatures will start the period near normal Sunday and
Monday before rising towards above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue through late morning/early
afternoon, with light showers likely passing by SGJ throughout the
day. Northeasterly surface winds will increase to around 10 knots by
14Z at the inland terminals and to around 15 knots and gusty at the
regional terminals towards 18Z. Speeds will then diminish to around
10 knots for the inland terminals and 10-15 knots at the coastal
terminals after 00Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure stretching from coastal New England
southwestward through the southern Appalachians will shift
southward while gradually weakening through tonight. Meanwhile,
a trough will remain situated across the Bahamas and southeast
Florida through tonight. High pressure will continue to wedge
down the southeastern seaboard, creating gusty north-
northeasterly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions through
Friday. Otherwise, coastal troughing will remain situated over
our near shore waters through early next week, with this feature
generating scattered to numerous showers through Friday.

Another strong high pressure center building southeastward from the
Upper Midwest on Friday will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday,
with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard this
weekend and early next week. Although a brief lull in winds and seas
is possible late Friday and early Saturday, easterly winds may
strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels this weekend. A wavy
stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the
Florida peninsula this weekend may generate numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local
waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect
for the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where
breakers of 6 to 8 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet
will prevail at the southeast GA beaches through Friday. These
elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of
deadly rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming
weekend, and additional beach erosion is likely to occur around
times of high tide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Onshore flow will persist through the rest of the week and into the
weekend as well. Showers will continue to occasionally move onshore
through Friday accordingly, mainly across northeast FL. Poor to fair
dispersions will continue near the coast through Friday, while in
the fair to good range inland with better mixing. Areas of high
nighttime dispersion will also continue near the coast through
Thursday Night. The pattern changes this weekend as a cold front
approaches from the northwest, which will return chances for
higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This
will also bring a slightly stronger surge of onshore flow ahead
of the front, and therefore more widespread good dispersions
accordingly.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Breezy northeasterly winds will combine with lingering high
astronomical tide values to maintain moderate tidal flooding through
early this afternoon along our local Atlantic coast from Mayport
southward, including the adjacent the Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW)
and the entirety of the St. Johns River basin. Water levels will
generally reach 2-2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect
for coastal Glynn, Camden, and Nassau Counties through Friday
afternoon, where mostly minor flooding is expected around times of
high tide, as water levels generally reach 1.5-2 feet above MHHW.
Coastal Duval, St. Johns and Flagler Counties will transition to a
Coastal Flood Advisory later this afternoon through Friday
afternoon, as tide levels begin to gradually subside. Moderate tidal
flooding may linger into the upcoming weekend within the St. Johns
River basin. The long duration of this strong onshore wind event
will produce additional beach erosion during each high tide cycle
through at least Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  76  64  75  66 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  79  65  78  67 /  10   0  10   0
SGJ  78  70  77  70 /  60  30  50  20
GNV  81  67  82  68 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  82  68  83  69 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-132-
     137-325-633.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-
     138-225-233-333.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EDT
     Friday for FLZ125-138-225-233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Friday for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ452-454-470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ472-474.

&&

$$