480
FXUS62 KJAX 101051
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
551 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warnings & Frost Advisories through this Morning.
  Freeze Warning Area: Inland Southeast GA. Frost Advisory:
  Coastal SE GA & Portions of Inland Northeast FL. Widespread
  Frost Expected in the Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory Areas

- Small Craft Advisory Expected for the Area Waters Tonight

- Light Freeze & Widespread Frost at Inland Locations on Thurs Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A 1021 mb high pressure ridge oriented southwest to northeast across
the forecast area will slide southeastward as a cold front pushes
into the southeast states today. A strong shortwave will drop into
the TN and Ohio Valley helping to pivot the front southeast into
our region by tonight. The front is expected to move into southeast
GA this evening, moving to the I-10 corridor shortly after midnight,
and push just south of the area by sunrise.

Temps are in the lower 30s over the freeze warning area with patchy
to areas of fog, with some freezing fog possible as well. A fairly
large temp gradient exists with the 30s in southeast GA, mid 40s
toward northeast FL and lower to mid 50s further into stratocumulus
cloud area from Marion to Putnam, and St Johns and Flagler counties.
A coastal trough and isentropic upglide continues to support the
wide area of stratocumulus clouds across the southeast zones which
will gradually erode by mid to later today as the low level wind
trajectories turn westerly ahead of the approaching front. As the
high pressure slides southward, return flow will bring max temps
up to the 60s most areas, with lower 60s for southeast GA and
mid to upper 60s for northeast FL. Tonight, as the front moves
through, low level mixing will result in some wind overnight at
about 5-15 mph or so, and, in relation to that, have blended low
temps slightly above the guidance. Lows are projected in the 40s
most areas, but upper 30s are possible for inland southeast GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and cool conditions continue Thursday as a weak cold front will
have clear the area to the south during the early predawn hours.
Behind the front, northwesterly flow will bring in dry and cooler
air into the area. While not as cold as yesterday (Tuesday), daytime
highs in SE GA will be in the mid to upper 50s, with colder
temperatures along the Altamaha River Basin. Across NE FL, highs are
expected to range in the lower to mid 60s. Thursday night, calm
winds and clear skies will settle across the area, allowing for
another night of good radiational cooling. Looking at current
probabilities, temperatures are not expected to be as low as Tuesday
evening, but coldest temperatures again will be felt across inland
SE GA, the Suwannee Valley Region of NE FL, and along the I-10
corridor west of the JAX metro. Inland SE GA will have Lows in the
lower to mid 30s, along the I-10 corridor west of JAX will be in the
mid 30s, while coastal locations and the rest of NE FL will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. Light Freeze & Widespread Frost across
SE GA inland Locations and patchy to areas of Frost towards the
Suwannee Valley Region is likely.

Friday, winds shift to become southwesterly for much of the area
which will bring in warmer air from the Gulf. As such, temperatures
will "warm" up with daytime highs in the 60s for most of the area,
with lower 70s across north central FL. Overnight Lows will span in
the 40s area wide, warmer temperatures across the coast and across
north central Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The relatively warmer temperatures will continue through the weekend
as most locations will have daytime highs span in the 70s. Cooler
temperatures make a return to start the upcoming week after the
passage of a dry cold front on Sunday. Overnight Lows on Sunday and
Monday nights, will likely dip into the 30s once again across inland
SE GA, but still trending to be a bit too windy for any frost
development for these two nights. Temperatures will begin warm once
again on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...

Surface observations show a mix of IFR and MVFR cigs across the
TAFs sites. Recent obs show GNV at LIFR cigs. These low cigs will
slowly erode through the late morning, and VFR is anticipated
this afternoon. The exception may be for SGJ as some low cigs
may persist there until about 19z. Otherwise, mostly clear skies
developing ahead of the next frontal system this afternoon and
evening. This front will move into the area later tonight and
may be accompanied by scattered to broken clouds around
1500-3000 ft so MVFR cigs will be possible after 06z. Light
winds become westerly after 16-18Z about 6-12 knots, shifting to
more northwesterly late tonight in association with the cold
frontal system. Will need to monitor model guidance for possible
LLWS from Duval terminals to SSI after 03z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

West to northwest winds will strengthen late today and tonight as
dry cold front moves across the area. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are expected to develop over the area waters tonight and
continue until Thursday morning. A high pressure center will build
into the area Thursday into Friday and then shift offshore by early
Saturday ahead of the next frontal boundary. This front will likely
remain dry as it crosses our local waters on Sunday night. Strong
high pressure building to the north of our region in the wake of
this frontal passage will result in strengthening northerly winds on
Sunday night that will shift to northeast on Monday. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely throughout our local waters from
Sunday night through Monday night.

Rip Currents: Primarily moderate risk across the area waters
today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  38  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  63  43  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  66  41  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  67  47  62  43 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  44  64  36 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  45  65  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-120-220-322-422-522.
GA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ154-166.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Thursday for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$