776
FXUS62 KJAX 020151
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
951 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Saturday. Squall Line of Strong to
Severe Storms Crosses Our Region on Saturday. Storm Hazards: Damaging
Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph, Frequent Lightning & Isolated

- Beneficial Rainfall Tonight through Saturday Night. Rainfall Totals
of 0.5-1.5 inches, with Locally Higher Totals of 2-3 Inches Possible

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at Area Beaches through Saturday.
Breezy Onshore Winds May Result in a High Risk on Sunday

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions from Late Sat Afternoon through Sun
Morning

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast remains on track with only a few adjustments to the pops
this evening with showers south of Jacksonville. Light showers will
continue over SE GA through late this evening with earlier showers
earlier across Clay, Putnam, and St Johns counties having all but
faded as the front lifts to I-10.

The front will lift northward further tonight into SE GA with light
westerly winds inland over NE FL and northeasterly along the coast and
over SE GA. Low stratus will develop as showers spread eastward late
tonight through the predawn early morning hours.

A wave of low pressure will form early Saturday morning near the FL
panhandle`s Gulf coast and move ENE towards the GA coast through
Saturday afternoon. A cold front will extend from the low into the
Gulf waters with scattered strong T`storms moving into western SE GA
counties before sunrise with small hail or brief winds gusts to 40-
50 mph, but the hi-res guidance has the main organized line of
strong/severe storms progressing into the Suwannee Valley 7-10AM,
then moving to the SE GA coast 10AM-1PM and moving through
Jacksonville and the NE FL coast from Noon to 4 PM. Isolated Severe
T`storms will bring a threat of damaging winds 40-60 mph, an
isolated tornado or two, frequent lighting, and heavy downpours.
Hail is also possible, but less likely.

Breezy winds 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph along and south of I-10
with winds 10-15, gusting to 20 mph more from the north to northwest
over SE GA. Highs will be below average in the mid to upper 60s over
much of SE GA north of US-82 while highs rise to the upper 70s to
low 80s along I-10 and mid to upper 80s south of I-10.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this Afternoon through Evening

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches.

Light showers will continue to move across southeast Georgia, with
better chances for more coverage and isolated thunderstorms later
this afternoon into the evening primarily north of I-10. Overall,
rainfall totals today will be pretty unimpressive, with better
chances of seeing >0.5" Saturday. Isolated to widely scattered
showers with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm or two will be
possible this afternoon and evening across northeast and north
central FL, with activity a littler more likely to materialize along
the I-95 corridor late this afternoon, where mesoscale boundary
collisions may occur. Quite the range in high temperatures today,
with north central Florida expected to reach the low 90s while
portions of inland southeast GA will stay in the mid-70s.

By early Saturday morning (before sunrise) showers and storms
assosicated with a stronger cold front will be on inland southeast
Georgia`s doorstep.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Unsettled weather with isolated strong/severe storm potential
Saturday
- Cooler temperatures return Sunday

Nearly stationary frontal boundary lingering over the area will drop
south and eastward across the region on Saturday in response to a
mid/upper trough swiging west to east across the southeast US. The
upper support combined with plenty of layer moisture will yield more
numerous showers and t`storms during the day on Saturday and into at
least the first portion of Saturday Night.

Hi res guidance has been continuing to suggest essentially two
seperate "rounds" of convection: the first being a squall line-like
feature with more elevated convection that races out ahead of hte
main front during the morning hours Saturday, followed by more
"filled in" showers and storms during the afternoon and evening from
northwest to southeast with daytime instability. Given the morning
convection combined with the timing of the front, instability looks
to be the biggest question mark as wind shear will almost certainly
be in place, as some model soundings suggest 50-60kts of bulk shear.
That said, the moral of the story will be any taller/stronger storms
that do develop will certainly have potential for damaging wind
gusts of 40-60+ mph, as well as an isolated tornado. The Storm
Predicition Center has placed a large portion of the area, mostly in
northeast FL where higher instability is more likely, in a slight
(level 2/5) risk for severe weather Saturday accordingly. There will
be quite the temperature gradient Saturday as a result of the
frontal timing and rain/cloud coverage: Far interior GA will
struggle to get out of the 60s, with mainly mid 70s to low 80s over
central areas and mid 80s to near 90 south.

Tonight, expecting some showers with a few embedded isolated
t`storms to linger south and east of about Gainesville to Saint
Augustine between about sunset and midnight before drier and cooler
north to northwest flow brings an end to frontal convection and most
cloud cover. The cool and dry convection will bring much nicer
sleeping weather as widespread mid 40s to low 50s are forecast over
interior GA and the upper Suwannee Valley, with low to mid 50s
expected elsewhere.

Northerly flow quickly shifts more northeastward to even more
variable across inland GA for Sunday as elongated surface high
pressure will essentially drape right across the region Sunday
Afternoon through Monday Morning. The St. Johns River Basin and
coast will stay breezy on Sunday, but otherwise fair conditions
expected with not a whole lot in the way of cloud cover and highs
below normal in the 70s for most. The drier weather will
unfortunately return elevated fire weather conditions Sunday, as
rainfall Saturday will help but not significantly with the ongoing
drought.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier weather and gradual warming through midweek
- Next chance for widespread rainfall around late week

High pressure will be almost directly overhead on Monday, though
slowly shifting towards east of the region mid week, helping to
induce more of a southerly flow and therefore gradually rebounding
temperatures. Dry and fair conditions look to continue through this
time frame, before the next frontal system approaches for around the
Wednesday Night and Thursday time frame. Drier and progressivley
warmer conditions combined with the ongoing drought will persist
fire weather concerns, as high temperatures start to reach well into
the 80s to around 90 once again by Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
The 00Z TAF period will begin with VFR conditions with scattered
ceilings around 4.0-6.0 kft and broken to overcast skies around 10.0
kft as a front lifts slowly north of duval county terminals with a
isolated showers and a widely isolated storm possible near VQQ due
to extra lift near the frontal boundary.

The front will lift north as a warm front overnight towards SSI with
IFR ceilings developing after 06Z and then spreading towards the
Northeast FL TAF sites 09-12Z as showers begin to overspread
eastward as a wave of low pressure develops along the Gulf coast
into the FL panhandle. Showers will increase well ahead of a cold
front moving in from the west with breezy west to southwest winds 10-
15 knots Saturday morning with gusts to 20-25 knots after 12Z, but
broken IFR ceilings persist with isolated T`storms ahead of an
organized line of T`storms. All TAF sites have PROB30 groups for
Saturday late morning to early afternoon for strong to severe
T`storm wind gusts up to 35 knots and MVFR/IFR restrictions as the
timing of the line of thunderstorms remains somewhat uncertain.

After the main line passes east of the sites, overcast MVFR ceilings
around 1.5 kft will persist with VCSH from lingering showers and
VCTS at GNV where some instability will remain further to the south.
Northwest winds around 10-12 knots gusting to 20 knots will continue
through the end of the period Saturday evening before drier air
arrives.

&&

.MARINE...


Southwesterly winds will strengthen on Saturday morning as
developing low pressure center approaches our local waters from the
west. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact our local
waters on Saturday and Saturday evening, with strong to severe
storms possible. Stronger storms on Saturday and Saturday evening
will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, frequent lightning
strikes, and possibly a few waterspouts.

Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely develop late Saturday
afternoon or evening in the immediate wake of the cold frontal
passage, as winds abruptly shift to northwesterly.  The front will
shift south of our area on Saturday night, with gusty winds shifting
to northerly after midnight. Breezy northeast winds are then
expected on Sunday as high pressure builds into the southeastern
states, with diminishing winds and seas early next week as the high
pressure quickly moves offshore of the southeastern seaboard.

Rip Currents:

Developing northeasterly winds will combine with a persistent 10-11
second east-northeasterly ocean swell to create a high end moderate
risk today at all area beaches. Breezy southwesterly winds on
Saturday should reduce the risk slightly, but a lower end moderate
risk will likely persist at the northeast FL beaches due to the
persistent longer period east-northeasterly swell. North-
northeasterly winds will then strengthen on Sunday, with building
surf likely creating a high risk at area beaches. Winds will then
become onshore again early next week, combining with the lingering
swell to produce a moderate risk, with a high risk possibly
continuing at the northeast FL beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER NORTHEAST FL TODAY AND
- Saturday

- Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible Saturday

A stalled frontal boundary will remain in the vicinity of the region
through tonight before dropping southward tomorrow. Chances for
showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be confined
mainly across southeast GA today, where minRH will be higher and
dispersions lower as a result. Better mixing across interior
northeast FL will yield good to high dispersions today with RH
bottoming out around 35-45%. Saturday, chances for showers and
t`storms will be more numerous, with chances for strong to severe
t`storms also elevated. Gusts to around 40-60 mph will be possible
in any storms as well as frequent lightning and downpours.
Conditions dry out beheind the front, with elevated fire danger
possible inland on Sunday. Generally drier conditions and lighter
winds will then be expected for the beginning of the next work
week, with minRH near critical for inland parts of the region.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog will be possible near
the I-75 corridor in northeast FL tonight and early Saturday. More
erratic winds will be likely at times associated with showers and
t`storms on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  67  46  75 /  80  90  10   0
SSI  63  72  54  71 /  40  90  20   0
JAX  65  82  51  76 /  30  90  30   0
SGJ  67  85  56  74 /  20  90  50  10
GNV  66  86  52  79 /  10  90  40   0
OCF  66  87  54  79 /   0  80  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$