902
FXUS62 KJAX 140603
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
103 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extreme Drought Expanding Across our Region. Moderate Wildfire Danger
  Throughout the Region. Lightning from Storms on Sunday Could
  Cause Ignitions.

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Sunday through Monday. Localized Heavy
  Downpours, Especially Along & North of I-10

- Isolated to Scattered Strong/Severe TStorms & Windy
  Conditions Possible Sunday-Sunday evening.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today Through
  Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
After a cool start especially away from the coast, a very similar
pattern to the previous few days is expected across the region
today as the area remains under the influence of high pressure
ridging from the north and east. The main difference will be the
fact that the high pressure center will start to slowly drift
southeastward off the coast of the Carolinas throughout the day
today and through tonight, which will veer winds more east to
southeasterly as compared to a northeast flow. In addition,
higher clouds will start to move into the region throughout the
day today, especially north and west. Despite more cloud cover
for many, the veering winds as well as ridging building a bit
aloft will allow for high temps a few degrees higher today,
especially away from the coast where widespread 70s are expected
and perhaps a few readings at 80 near the Suwannee River Valley.
Further north and east and towards the coast, we will still
hang on to the 60s for the most part.

Tonight, higher clouds will start to thicken as low pressure and
associated frontal system start to approach the area from the
northwest. Expecting the area to remain dry through early Sunday
Morning at this time, though a warm front lifting northeast
overnight Sunday may bring a few isolated showers with it. Min temps
will be milder accordingly, with readings in the 50s being most
common.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
On Sunday, a positive tilt mid to upper level trough will swing
through the eastern U.S. with a sfc low around 1000-1004 mb
moving across the southern U.S. A strong cold front will be
moving quickly eastward from the lower MS valley east to our
local area by the late evening. The forecast area will be in the
warm sector on Sunday with breezy and warm conditions ahead of
the front. Breezy/windy southerly winds of 15-25 mph gusting to
near 40 mph are anticipated, with a possible need for a wind
advisory, for gusts near the 40-45 mph range. A good swath of
moisture moves out ahead and the cold front with instability
reaching upwards of 300-500 J and bulk shear of about 50 kt. CAM
model guidance shows the main squall line approaching the area,
moving into western zones by about the 1-4 pm time frame but
some prefrontal scattered convection may also develop ahead of
this feature. The line should continue to move east, possibly
merging with prefrontal convection by late aftn, with potentially
for a few damaging wind gusts and an isolated embedded tornado
within the line. Latest HRRR shows some indications of this
isolated tornado threat from inland northeast FL to parts of
inland southeast GA. Sunday night, the weakening squall line
looks to be located roughly from near the GA nearshore waters
southwest to northeast FL, continuing to move east. However,
timing of the line still a little in question given the
differences between HRRR and other guidance. While the threat is
still there for a severe storm, the threat should be waning
Sunday night after about 8-9 PM as the airmass stabilizes overnight
and front moves in from the west. SPC has highlighted the forecast
area in a marginal to slight risk of severe storms. The front
should push into the area Sunday night while the associated sfc
low moves offshore of the southeast coast. Precip chances should
diminish considerably overnight and lows will drop to the 50s.

On Monday, post-frontal trough extends from the low offshore and
across our area and so we continue to have a chance of showers in
the morning, but would assume the chances will diminish further
in the aftn. Northwest to north winds and drier conditions will
make for a more pleasant day with highs in the lower 70s south
zones to 60s coast and nrn zones as weak cold advection is
anticipated behind the departing system. Not too cold on Monday
night with lows in the 40s for nrn zones and lower 50s further
south. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure system around 1025 mb will be positioned over
the SC/NC coast Tuesday morning and will move southward through
mid to late week and so return flow will develop eventually by
mid week. Airmass looks dry for the long term but the model
blend shows some low chance for showers on Friday but confidence
at this point remains low given the low amount of QPF in the
output and what looks like weak forcing aloft. The return flow
suggests moderation in high temps and then above normal temps
with high of around 80 and then lower 80s by Thursday into
Friday. Overall, lows will be above average during the long
term. The pattern may favor some occasional late night and early
morning fog/stratus.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to persist for majority of TAF period.
Patchy fog remains possible from 08-12Z at the inland TAF sites of
GNV/VQQ, though probability has decreased slightly with the latest
guidance. Not confident enough to back off on vsby restrictions at
this time, though trends will be monitored accordingly
overnight. Otherwise, SCT Cu clouds in the 3000-5000 ft range
expected to develop Saturday afternoon, along with E-NE winds
around 10 knots with gusts to around 15 knots at times. Very
isolated showers/sprinkles will also be possible towards the
very end of the forecast period, though coverage/impacts
expected to be very minimal.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure ridging persists through today, with the high center
drifting towards east of the region by tonight. A warm front will
lift northward across the area tonight as a low pressure system
approaches from the west. Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase tonight over area waters, but especially through
Sunday as the low and associated cold front move across the region
through Sunday Night. A few storms may be strong to severe Sunday
afternoon and Evening as a squall line moves across the region.
South-southwesterly winds also increase ahead of the front on
Sunday, with small craft advisory conditions likely for all
waters Sunday Afternoon/Evening and persisting offshore Sunday
Night. High pressure ridging will then build back down the
southeastern coast on Tuesday before weakening and shifting east
of the Florida Peninsula once again mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for all beaches with a
persistent onshore flow. Stronger more southerly winds along shore
Sunday will persist a moderate rip current risk for the end of the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS
  AFTERNOON
- HIGH DAYTIME INLAND DISPERSIONS SUNDAY...

Long durations of critically low relative humidity values are
forecast this afternoon for inland portions of southeast Georgia.
However, low-level moisture gradually increases tonight and
Sunday as a cold front approaches.

Increasing cloud cover is expected later tonight into Sunday ahead
of cold front, with high chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms, some of which could be strong or briefly severe. This
activity will overspread the area Sunday, possibly continuing into
late Sunday night. Strong transport winds, breezy surface speeds,
and elevated mixing heights will create high daytime dispersion
values on Sunday throughout most of the area. Beneficial rainfall
overspreads the region Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts of
around 1 inch are possible, with locally higher totals possible.
Linger shower chances on Monday but will decrease in the afternoon
as drier air will filter in.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation is not
expected during the next several days but some localized visibility
reductions are possible during the predawn and early morning hours
for locations near active or ongoing wildfires or prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  50  76  55 /   0  10  90  90
SSI  63  53  71  55 /   0  10  80 100
JAX  71  53  81  57 /   0  10  70  90
SGJ  71  55  79  58 /   0  10  60  90
GNV  78  56  82  58 /   0   0  70  90
OCF  79  57  82  58 /   0   0  60  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$