Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
008 FXUS62 KJAX 260403 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1203 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Very Hot & Humid Weather Continues Today Heat Index 104-108. Heat Advisories Possible Next Week for Portions of Our Area - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches - Scattered to Numerous Afternoon & Evening TStorms Sun & Mon. Strong Storms, Frequent Lightning Strikes & Locally Heavy Downpours Possible - Isolated to Widely Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Tues & Wed && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main Highlights through Tonight: - Strong Storms and Locally Heavy Downpours This Afternoon and Early Evening from I-95 to US Highway 301 Corridors - Still Hot and Humid with Heat Indices of 104-108F this afternoon West to Northwest steering flow along with PWATs of 2 inches or more will support numerous to widespread showers and storms this afternoon and early evening, mainly from the I-95 corridor westward to the US-301 highway corridor as convection interacts with an inland moving East Coast sea breeze. Isolated strong to severe storms are expected with gusty winds to 40-60 mph, along with a localized flood threat due to slow moving and merging storms, with highest impacts in urban areas along the I-95 corridor. Prior to the onset of convection, Max temps still expected to reach the middle 90s in most locations by the early to mid afternoon hours, with peak heat indices in the 104-108F range, with highest values across coastal NE FL counties, but for now will hold off on Heat Advisory headlines, as lingering cloud cover this morning and slightly earlier start to convection this afternoon should prevent long durations of any brief Heat Advisory criteria today. Convection should begin to fade around sunset this evening and end by midnight with fair skies and humid conditions overnight with lows generally in the 70s, except near 80F near the Atlantic Coast. Some low level convergence along the NE Gulf Coast towards morning may produce some isolated showers and storms, which could push into portions of Gilchrist/Alachua/Marion counties at times. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Thunderstorm chances will be lower than normal, but storms which do develop will have the potential to become strong - Heat Advisories may be needed for Monday and Tuesday afternoons The region will be between a high pressure ridge to the south and a trough to the north Monday through Tuesday. A stronger front will move toward SE GA Tuesday night. Without larger scale features close enough, sea breeze interactions will be the main driver for afternoon convection each day, but a drier airmass will be in place, limiting convective potential. Temperatures will trend above average this period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Above average chances for diurnal thunderstorms this period, with potential for strong storms each afternoon and evening - Heat Advisory may be needed Wednesday A frontal zone will be stalled near the GA/FL line throughout this period. The combination of convergence along this boundary, ample moisture, and diurnal instability, will lead to above average convective chances during the afternoon and evenings this period. The warmest day this period will be Wednesday, when a heat advisory may be needed. The rest of the week will see temperatures trend near to a little above average. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... VFR conds through the overnight/early morning hours with leftover convective debris mid/high clouds that should dissipate during the mid-late morning hours as W-NW winds increase to 8-10 knots at local terminals before sea breeze pushes through SSI/CRG/SGJ during the early afternoon hours. High rainfall/storm chances for all terminals, but for now will continue PROB30 with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds to 30 knots until later forecasts can fine tune any timing and upgrade to TEMPO groups with potential for IFR VSBYS in heavy rainfall possible at all terminals, mainly in the 19-01Z time frame. VFR conds expected from 02Z time frame onward through the end of the current TAF period with leftover mid/high convective debris clouds. && .MARINE... A stationary frontal boundary extending from the Carolina coast westward across the deep south will drift south towards the Georgia waters Today, pushing the axis of Atlantic high pressure southward. This change in the weather pattern will create a prevailing offshore wind flow through early next week, with scattered to numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected across our local waters each day. A few stronger storms will be possible during the late afternoon hours, with briefly strong wind gusts, frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. Another front will approach the waters by the middle of next week with offshore southwest winds increasing to near advisory levels. Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is expected today and Monday at Northeast FL and Southeast GA beaches due to afternoon sea breeze and surf/breakers around 2 feet or so. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Heat Advisories may be needed Monday through Wednesday - Patchy high dispersions Today, Wednesday and Thursday The region will be between high pressure to the south and a boundary to the north through Tuesday. A frontal boundary will move into the region and stall Wednesday through the end of next week. Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected during the next several mornings. Heat Advisories may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Daily thunderstorm potential this week, which may become strong. Gusty and erratic winds can be expected in and near storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 96 75 / 50 40 10 0 SSI 93 78 92 79 / 60 40 20 0 JAX 96 75 95 76 / 60 50 40 0 SGJ 94 76 93 76 / 80 60 40 0 GNV 96 76 95 76 / 70 50 60 10 OCF 95 77 94 77 / 60 40 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$