399
FXUS62 KJAX 041130
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
730 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increasing Daily Thunderstorm and Heavy Downpour Coverage. Flood
Watch In Effect Noon Today Through Monday Morning Along/North of
I-10. Waves of Heavy Downpours Will Increase Localized Flooding
Threat into Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk all Area Beaches through Monday

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Increase This Week. Strong & Gusty
  Northeast Winds Arrive Monday Night. Small Craft Advisory
  Conditions Likely for the Atlantic Waters Tuesday through
  Wednesday with occasional Gusts to Gale Force. Deadly Rip
  Currents, Rough Surf & Substantial Beach Erosion Likely. Minor
  to Moderate Tidal Flooding Risk Tuesday through Thursday Along
  the Atlantic Coast, ICWW & Tidal Tributaries of the St. Johns
  & St. Marys River Basins

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights Today and Tonight:

- Flood Watch due to the potential for another period of heavy rain
today; highest flood risk will be along and north of I-10 this
afternoon and evening.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible during the late
afternoon and early evening hours.

Wet, unsettled weather continues for the third straight day. As of
early this morning, the 72 hour (3-day) rainfall across southeast GA
is roughly 3 to 7 inches, whereas areas south of I-10 have been less
wet, with only a half to 2 inches and locally high amounts up to 4
inches.

More rain is on the way and will be fueled by deep atmospheric
moisture, similar to the last few days. There will be a lull in the
rain through the remainder of the morning but another active
afternoon is expected with the heaviest rainfall expected to focus
along and north of I-10 again this afternoon and through the late
evening.

Widespread rain and scattered embedded thunderstorms, some
becoming strong, will develop as conditions destabilize this
afternoon generally expanding from the Big Bend area northeastward
across NE FL and into SE GA. Given a deepening southwesterly flow
paralleling a weak surface trough axis, there is concern for waves
of training convection with embedded pockets of very heavy rain with
hourly rates up to 3-5" in areas where several inches of rainfall
has already occurred over the last few days. To highlight the flash
flood potential this afternoon, a Flood Watch has been issued for
all of SE GA and NE FL counties along and north of the I-10
corridor. Rainfall broadly is forecast 1-2" but there is potential
for rain to overachieve with locally higher amounts of 3-5",
especially across SE GA this evening.

Expect the potential for heavy rainfall and the attendant flood risk
to continue well into the evening and perhaps overnight as a
shortwave impulse aloft dips southeastward and a corresponding wave
of low pressure tracks into southeast GA.

Despite the cloud cover this morning, there should be enough heating
to push temperatures in to the low/mid 80s in SE GA and the
mid/upper 80s across NE FL before convection blossoms. Wet and
overcast conditions tonight will bring temperatures down into the
low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Potential for rounds of heavy rainfall, and a few strong
  thunderstorms can not be ruled out

- Strong northeast flow pattern through midweek with potential   for
  dangerous Surf Zone conditions and Gusty Coastal   Conditions.

The axis of a strong trough will swing east from the eastern Great
Lakes into New England with the base of the trough moving off the
Mid Atlantic and Carolina coasts as strong ridging shifts into the
upper Midwest. This pattern will place a frontal boundary extending
WSW from the southeast US coast back into SE GA and the FL panhandle
Monday morning as strong high builds into the upper MS river valley.
Very high moisture content (PWATs near Daily Max Values 2.2-2.5
inches), lift from the front and trailing shortwave energy beneath
the base of the aforementioned trough will bring widespread chances
for rain as a wave of low pressure moves ENE along the front from
the FL panhandle through our area to the coast.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common with
localized heavier totals of 2-4 as the NBM 90th percentile amounts
range up to 3 to 4 inches. WPC has a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall from the SE GA and NE FL coast westward into the Suwannee
Valley and the FL panhandle for at least localized flash flooding
threat. Abundant cloud cover will limit highs into the mid to upper
70s over SE GA, upper 70s to low 80s over NE FL and the mid 80s over
north central FL.

Winds Monday from the south and SW will begin to shift around from
the north and NE as the wave of low pressure moves further east in
the late afternoon across inland SE GA and by the evening for the
rest of the area as the front sinks southward into north central FL
overnight into Tuesday morning. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the
mid to upper 60s over SE GA into I-10 inland with low 70s over the
coast and NE FL due to the north to NE flow. Some increase in 0-6km
shear will be present near the front Monday night into Tuesday, but
mostly below 25 knots, which should limit severe potential.

Tuesday, strong NE winds will develop as mid/upper level ridging
across the Great Lakes and Midwest OH valley support high pressure
building into the Mid Atlantic and Delmarva Peninsula through the
day as the cold front sinks south into central FL as weak waves of
low pressure move eastward along it. Sustained winds from the NE 15-
25 mph expected with gusts of 35-45 mph that will likely prompt wind
advisory for higher gusts along the coast into the St Johns river
basin.

Widespread showers expected across north central FL closer to the
front and along the coast as coastal convergent showers and isolated
T`storms develop in the strong convergent onshore flow resulting
from the pinched local pressure gradient. The heavier axis of rain
will be across NE FL and the coast with 1-2 inch amounts and
isolated higher totals of 2-4 inches.

Highs will be limited again Tuesday from mostly cloudy skies and and
showers and isolated T`storm coverage with mid to upper 70s over
much of the area and low 80s over north central FL. Lows will range
from near normal in the low 60s over inland SE GA and to the low 70s
along the NE FL coast.

Wednesday, wind advisory conditions potential remains during the day
as gusts to 30-40 mph will be common as the high to the north shifts
to the NE as the front remains across the central FL peninsula. The
Highest rainfall chances along the NE FL coast due to convergent
showers moving onshore with less chances inland to the Suwannee
river and silent pops north and west of US-84. Again cooler highs
prevail in the upper 70s to near 80 due to the enhance onshore NE
flow. Rainfall amounts be focus along and south of I-10 and the NE
FL coast with 1-2 inches across north central FL.

Much drier air will settle into SE GA Wednesday night cooling lows
below normal into the upper 50s to near 60 over inland SE GA with
near normal lows in the mid 60s inland NE FL, but warming to above
normal along the coast with upper 60s SE GA coast and the low 70s NE
FL coast. Breezy winds will remain overnight into Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Strong northeast flow pattern through midweek, with potential for
Minor to Moderate Tidal Flooding, Deadly Surf, and Gusty Coastal
Conditions.

- Increasing Rain and Thunderstorms Chances return Next Weekend

Broad surface high pressure will be to the north of the region
Thursday as a frontal boundary remains across the central FL
peninsula to end the week. The frontal boundary will begin to lift
back northward to begin next weekend as a low develops to the west
near the TX coast. Thursday will have scattered shower coverage with
numerous showers and a few storms. Showers will increase in coverage
across NE FL into Saturday with widespread showers potentially
advancing northward into SE GA by Saturday. Embedded T`storms will
also return into most of the area as shortwave energy aloft moves
downstream of a closed shortwave trough over the southern plains.

Persistent elevated to breezy NE to ENE onshore flow will continue
during the period. While winds will not be high enough for wind
advisory conditions, the fetch of onshore winds will bring tidal
flooding concerns as the astronomical tides begin increasing with
the approaching New Moon, with minor to possible low-end Moderate
tidal flooding potentially into next weekend. Dangerous surf
conditions, Rip Currents, and minor to moderate beach erosion will
also be likely due to the elevated winds. Periods of heavy downpours
with any showers or storms that develop during the period as
moisture levels remain elevated across NE FL and north FL.

High temperatures will trend below average this period. Low
temperatures will begin near to below normal inland/above normal
along the coast and warm to near normal inland into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
A dry stretch is expected through the rest of this morning before
convection develops again after 18z. Through 13z, localized fog and
areas of low stratus are possible, mainly at GNV, SSI and VQQ,
otherwise, VFR will prevail. Thunderstorms will push from west to
east through the afternoon and likely off the Atlantic coast around
22z-00z with light trailing stratiform rain through the evening
hours. Increasing probability that low MVFR and IFR ceilings will
develop around midnight once the stratiform rain tapers off. Outside
of convective influence, light and variable winds are expected
inland while a mild Atlantic sea breeze pushes inland around 19z.

&&

.MARINE...


Southeasterly wind continues today with showers and thunderstorms
pushing eastward toward the Atlantic coast and into the waters late
this afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm activity, winds and seas are
expected to remain below Caution levels through at least Monday
afternoon.

Deteriorating conditions are expected Tuesday as cold front enters
and stalls over the area waters. Following the front, a strong high
pressure building will wedge down the southeastern seaboard,
initiating a prolonged surge of strong northeasterly winds and high
seas across our local waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are
likely by Tuesday, with the potential for wind gusts near Gale force
through Thursday. Northeasterly winds are expected to gradually
decrease through Friday and shift onshore next weekend.

Rip Currents: Persistent onshore winds and 2 to 3 foot breakers will
maintain a moderate risk at all area beaches through Monday.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop on Tuesday as
northeasterly winds strengthen, resulting in very rough surf and
deadly rip currents from Tuesday through the end of next week, with
breakers potentially building to 8-10 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- Areas Of Low Daytime Dispersions Through Tuesday

Waves of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected today and
continuing into early this week as a wave of low pressure along the
central Gulf coast moves east along an associated frontal boundary
which will gradually sink south across the area. Lower mixing
heights across much of the area due to low cloud cover, showers an
thunderstorms will lead to poor dispersions to develop Today into
Monday for the entire forecast area, and low dispersion continues
for portions of northeast Florida Tuesday and north central FL on
Wednesday. An area of low pressure is expected to develop just to
the northeast Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north into
midweek, bringing elevated northeasterly winds to the area,
especially along coastal locations.

Fog Potential...Patchy fog will develop early this morning with
localized patchy dense fog over areas that received locally heavy
rainfall Saturday, lifting after sunrise. Gusty and erratic winds
will be possible in and near thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall
with localized flooding possible each day this period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A tropical-like airmass will remain over the area today. Sea
breeze driven thunderstorms this afternoon and then a passing
wave of low pressure this evening and overnight may lead to
periods of heavy rainfall across areas that have already
received 3 to 7 inches over the last three days, mainly
locations along and north of I-10. Additional rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 4 to 5 inches may
result in flash flooding, especially in urban areas today and
tonight. A Flood Watch is in effect through Monday morning for
Southeast GA and portions of Northeast FL along the I-10
corridor.

This week, a local nor`east and high astronomical tides will
combine and result in minor and potential moderate coastal
flooding during times of high tide along the Atlantic coast,
beginning with the late evening high tide on Tuesday and likely
continuing through Thursday during each high tide. Minor to
moderate flooding may also become possible within the St. Johns
River basin from Wednesday morning through next weekend around
times of high tide.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...

The KVAX Doppler Radar in Valdosta GA near Moody AFB remains
out of service until further notice. Please utilize KJGX
(Robins AFB) or KJAX (Jacksonville) during the outage period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  84  70  76  66 /  80  90  90  50
SSI  85  71  80  70 /  60  90  80  90
JAX  87  71  79  69 /  70  80  80  90
SGJ  87  73  82  71 /  60  70  80  90
GNV  88  71  81  70 /  50  60  90  80
OCF  90  73  84  72 /  50  60  80  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday morning for
     FLZ023-024-120-124-125-220-225-322-325-425.
GA...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through Monday morning for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$