222
FXUS62 KJAX 171822
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION,
MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Near-Elevated Fire Weather Conditions in Southeast GA. Very Low
  Humidity this Afternoon with Critically Dry Fuels.

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Severe to Extreme
  Drought Persists for Inland Southeast GA & the Northern Suwannee
  Valley.

- Areas of Locally Dense Fog Along the I-75 Corridor Early on
  Wednesday.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues through Tuesday at the
  Northeast FL Beaches.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts gradually strengthening high
pressure (1022 millibars) building southeastward from the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys and wedging down the southeastern seaboard. This
high pressure center continues to push a weakening, dry cold
front southward across central FL. Aloft...troughing continues to
lift northeastward through Atlantic Canada, with dry west-
northwesterly flow prevailing it its wake across our area.
Meanwhile, flat ridging was building northward from the Gulf
across the lower Mississippi Valley and through the Upper Midwest.
Otherwise, a potent shortwave trough was emerging from the lee
side of the Rockies and entering the northern Plains states. Zonal
flow aloft was carrying thin cirrus cloud cover eastward along the
northern Gulf coast, with the leading edge of this cloud cover set
to move across inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley early
this afternoon. Plenty of sunshine and a very dry air mass were
allowing temperatures at 18Z to rise through the 70s at most
locations. Dewpoints ranged from the upper 20s across portions of
inland southeast GA to the 30s across the northern Suwannee
Valley. Developing onshore winds were keeping values in the 50s to
around 60 at coastal locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

The frontal boundary will stall and weaken tonight just south of
the Interstate 4 corridor as zonal flow aloft develops across the
southeastern states. Our local pressure gradient will loosen
overnight as high pressure builds into the southeastern states,
with winds at inland locations decoupling early this evening.
Mostly thin cirrus will move across our area overnight as flow
aloft becomes more zonal in nature, with these high clouds likely
exiting into the Atlantic waters towards sunrise. The dry air mass
will result in lows ranging from around 40 across inland
southeast GA to around 50 for north central FL. A light onshore
breeze this evening should shift to a light offshore breeze
overnight as weak coastal troughing develops over our near shore
Atlantic waters, with lows remaining in the 50s overnight at
coastal locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry weather continues over the region as nearby surface high
pressure shifts off the coast of North Carolina and into the
Atlantic through Wednesday. Low level moisture gradually returns
as winds shift to southerly by mid-week. Main weather concern will
be the potential for overnight and early morning inland fog due
to clear skies and calm winds. Sunny skies and prevailing
subsidence will maintain warmer than seasonable temperatures with
highs rising into the upper 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in
the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure ridging over the region shifts southeastward on
Friday as a cold front moves into the SE US for the weekend.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the front for the end of the work week
will continue above seasonable to potentially near record highs
and moisture advection. The next chance for rain appears to be
Saturday ahead of the front although uncertainty remains if there
will be enough rainfall to bring any relief to the current
severe/extreme drought over the area. Best chances, although on
the low side, continue to highlight inland SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 05Z at the regional
terminals. Following a brief period of increasing high altitude
cirrus cloud cover this afternoon and evening, skies will clear
from west to east, setting up a period of fog and low stratus
ceilings at the Duval County terminals and GNV during the predawn
and early morning hours on Tuesday. Confidence was high enough to
maintain LIFR conditions through around 12Z at VQQ, while
confidence was only high enough to indicate a period of prevailing
MVFR visibilities at JAX, CRG, and GNV through around 13Z
Tuesday. VFR conditions will then prevail for the remainder of
Tuesday at the regional terminals. Northeasterly surface winds
will remain sustained around 10 knots through around 22Z, with
winds then diminishing quickly towards 00Z. Northeasterly surface
winds sustained at 5-10 knots will then resume towards 14Z
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

High pressure will build east-southeastward towards the Carolinas
this evening, with this feature wedging down the southeastern
seaboard through Tuesday. Onshore winds will briefly strengthen
this afternoon, followed by high pressure settling directly over
our local waters later tonight and Tuesday, allowing for lighter
onshore winds. Weakening high pressure will then shift offshore of
the southeastern seaboard on Wednesday and will remain in control
of our weather pattern through Saturday before another weakening
cold front enters the southeastern states. This front will likely
cross our local waters on Saturday night or Sunday, with a brief
period of breezy southwest to westerly winds expected this
weekend, with a few showers possible during the frontal passage.
Seas of 2 to 3 feet will prevail throughout our local waters
during the next several days.

Rip Currents...Breezy northeasterly winds will result in a lower
end moderate risk this afternoon at the northeast FL beaches. A
developing northeasterly ocean swell on Tuesday will create a
lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Lighter winds and
flat surf conditions should yield a low risk at all area beaches
on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 122 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Dry air following the frontal passage will settle in over the
region, bringing minRH levels down into the upper teens and 20s
over inland southeast GA and inland portions of northeast FL
north of I-10. Winds will remain mostly mild and variable through
the day, resulting in lower mixing heights and poor daytime
dispersion values. Lower winds will keep the area just above
criteria for elevated fire danger. MinRH values will gradually
rise as the week progresses, however, poor/fair dispersions and
dry weather will persist through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          WED 11/19  THU 11/20  FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1958    86/1988    84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/1984    86/1988    82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     90/1906    88/1906    86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     82/1942    83/1942    83/2011    83/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  77  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  53  73  57  77 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  50  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  60  78  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  49  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  50  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$