657
FXUS62 KJAX 300105
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
905 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
Coastal Flood Warning  Moderate Flooding along the St. Johns River
Basin. Coastal Flood Advisory along the Atlantic Coast for Minor
Flooding Around Times of High Tide. High Surf Advisory through Late
Thursday Night at Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all
Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Small Craft Advisories for
the Atlantic Waters through Friday and Saturday

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main Highlights:

- Minor to Moderate tidal flooding continues along the St Johns
River basin, Atlantic Coast, and ICW

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Showers will continue to move onshore across northeast Florida,
primarily over Flagler and St. Johns counties (with a low chance of
thunder) as northeasterly winds persist. High temperatures today
will be at or just below normal, with cloudy skies.  Minor to
moderate tidal flooding will continue around times of high tide
along the St. Johns river basin, Atlantic coast, and ICW, along with
beach erosion and dangerous surf.

Cloudy skies continue overnight for northeast Florida, along with
isolated showers near the coast south of St. Augustine. Low
temperatures will range from the upper 50s to low 70s, milder near
the coast and St. Johns river basin area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal Hazards Continue, Especially for the St. Johns River

- Thunderstorm Potential for Northeast FL Saturday Night

High pressure north of the region will begin a northeast-eastward
shift during the forecast period. This will prompt a cold front to
begin a southward shift along the eastern seaboard, towards SE GA by
Saturday morning, and begin to clear south of the the area by
Saturday evening.

The overall flow continues from the northeast Friday, with breezy to
gusty conditions along the coast and local waters. Showers will
again be possible along coastal NE FL and portions of north central
FL. Daytime highs will primarily be in the lower 80s, with cooler
temperatures along the coast with temperatures topping out in the
mid 70s to lower 80s. The advancing frontal boundary will lead to
the persistent NE onshore flow begin to veer Saturday and becoming
more easterly by the Saturday evening. Coastal showers are once
again expected on Saturday, but due to the shift in onshore flow,
activity will likely be directed a bit north with isolated to
scattered showers along JAX beaches and towards Camden County in SE
GA. By Saturday night, the front is currently expected to push south
of north central FL. Temperatures will have a similar spread as
Friday, with daytime highs in the lower 80s for inland locations,
while coastal locations will sit in the mid to upper 70s, sparse
lower 80s.

From Previous Discussion: Most coastal hazards are expected to
continue Friday and into the weekend, especially within the St.
Johns River as higher water levels will remain the most trapped. We
will continue to evaluate levels over the coming days, but at least
Coastal Flood Advisories are likely to continue area-wide, with
Coastal Flood Warnings possible to continue for at least upstream
portions of the St. Johns River.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: Sunday through Wednesday

- Coastal Hazards Likely to Continue through at Least the Weekend

- Thunderstorm Potential Sunday

Easterly-northeastery onshore flow will persists on Sunday behind
the front`s passage during the early hours on Sunday. There will an
increase in the areal coverage as most locations will have isolated
to scattered chances of showers on Sunday, with higher chances along
north central FL locations with the proximity of the stalling frontal
boundary over central/south FL. Additionally, there could be some
thunderstorm development by the afternoon hours on Sunday primarily
over NE FL. Chances continue into the overnight hours into Monday,
but areal coverage will not be as widespread due to the onshore flow
shifting to a more northeasterly flow, persisting into midweek as
high pressure stretches along the eastern seaboard once again.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
MVFR and IFR ceilings overnight and into the early morning hours on
Friday with ceilings becoming VFR nearer to the end of the forecast
period. Winds will become more diminished during the overnight hours
and build from out of the northeast for sites by around 14z to 16z.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure stretching from coastal New England
southwestward through the southern Appalachians will shift southward
while gradually weakening through tonight. Meanwhile, a trough will
remain situated across the Bahamas and southeast Florida through
tonight. High pressure will continue to wedge down the southeastern
seaboard, creating gusty north-northeasterly winds and Small Craft
Advisory conditions through Friday. Otherwise, coastal troughing
will remain situated over our near shore waters through early next
week, with this feature generating scattered to numerous showers
through Friday.

Another strong high pressure center building southeastward from the
Upper Midwest on Friday will reach the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday,
with this feature wedging down the southeastern seaboard this
weekend and early next week. Although a brief lull in winds and seas
is possible late Friday and early Saturday, easterly winds may
strengthen to Small Craft Advisory levels this weekend. A wavy
stationary frontal boundary lifting slowly northward across the
Florida peninsula this weekend may generate numerous showers and a
few embedded thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday across our local
waters.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in effect for
the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where breakers of 6
to 8 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet will prevail at the
southeast GA beaches through Friday. These elevated, rough surf
conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly rip currents at all
area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and additional beach
erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND

Onshore flow will persist from the northeast on Friday and into the
weekend. Showers will continue to occasionally move onshore through
Friday accordingly, mainly across northeast FL. Poor to fair daytime
dispersions continue near the coast through Saturday, while in the
fair to good range inland with better mixing. Areas of high
nighttime dispersion will also continue near the coast through the
weekend. The pattern changes this weekend as a cold front approaches
from the northwest, which will return chances for higher coverage of
showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This will also bring a
slightly stronger surge of onshore flow ahead of the front, and
therefore more widespread good dispersions accordingly.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Breezy northeasterly winds will combine with lingering high
astronomical tide values to maintain moderate tidal flooding through
at least Friday for the St. Johns River basin. Water levels will
generally reach 2-2.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect
for the Atlantic coast through Friday afternoon, where mostly minor
flooding is expected around times of high tide, as water levels
generally reach 1.5-2 feet above MHHW. Moderate tidal flooding may
linger into the upcoming weekend within the St. Johns River basin.
The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will produce
additional beach erosion during each high tide cycle through at
least Friday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  82  62  80 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  65  75  66  77 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  66  78  67  79 /   0   0  20  30
SGJ  70  77  70  79 /  30  40  30  30
GNV  67  82  68  82 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  68  83  69  84 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for FLZ124-138-
     233-333.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Sunday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$