771
FXUS62 KJAX 061116
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
716 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Elevated Fire Danger at Inland Locations this Afternoon. Near
Critically Low Humidity Values Expected Along with Ongoing Drought
Conditions

- Near Record High Temperatures Today & Thursday

- Fire Weather Watch for Locations East of U.S.-301 on Thurs
Afternoon & Evening. Gusty Southwesterly Winds, Near Critically Low
Humidity& Ongoing Drought Conditions

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms on Thursday Afternoon &
Evening. Main Impact Area: Locations Along and North of the
Interstate 10 Corridor. Main Hazards: Wind Gusts of 40-60 mph,
Frequent Lightning Strikes & Isolated Tornadoes

- Scattered to Numerous Thunderstorms from Friday Afternoon through
Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Warm Temperatures Today

- Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at All Area Beaches

Dry weather conditions will continue through today and into tonight
as high pressure over the region moves off towards the east and a
southwesterly flow develops over the region ahead of the advancing
cold front pressing in from out of the northwest. Southwesterly
diurnal winds will act to keep the east coast sea breeze pinned
nearer to the coast. Early morning fog developments, primarily along
and west of the I-75 corridor, will disperse by midmorning. High
temperatures will rise to be near record high levels this afternoon
with max temps rising into the mid 90s over inland areas and in the
mid to upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures
will drop down into the mid to upper 60s for inland areas and in the
upper 60s and lower 70s for counties along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Fire Weather Watch on Thursday Afternoon and Early Evening for
Locations East of U.S. Highway 301 in Northeast and North Central FL

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorms Possible for Locations
Along and North of Interstate 10 on Thursday

- Near Record High Temperatures Possible Across Portions of
Northeast and North Central FL on Thursday Afternoon

- Scattered Thunderstorms Area-Wide on Friday and Friday Night

Deep-layered riding over the southeast Gulf and the FL peninsula on
Thursday will flatten while shifting southward on Thursday night and
Friday. Meanwhile, troughing digging southeastward from the Great
Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley will direct a shortwave trough
eastward from the Ozarks on Thursday morning, across the Tennessee
Valley on Thursday afternoon, with this feature filling as it
crosses the Carolinas on Thursday night. This troughing will drive a
cold front across the southeastern states on Thursday, with this
boundary decelerating as it crosses southeast GA on Thursday night
and then stalling along the I-10 corridor on Friday as fast zonal
flow prevails across the southeastern states in the wake of the
filling shortwave that will progress offshore. Otherwise, a cutoff
trough currently spinning over the Desert Southwest will eject into
the zonal flow pattern by late Friday, traversing west Texas on
Friday night.

Our local pressure gradient will tighten downstream of the
aforementioned troughing and cold front on Thursday morning. Breezy
southwesterly winds will overspread our area by the mid to late
morning hours, and stout ridging over the FL peninsula will drive
near record heat all the way to area beaches on Thursday afternoon.
Uncertainties in the forecast arise with a potential early start to
convection on Thursday morning across southeast GA. This convection
could spread cloud cover southward to the I-10 corridor by the late
morning and early afternoon that could put a cap on instability.
However, strong subsidence across the FL peninsula will likely
result in a thin enough cirrus layer for highs to soar to the mid
and possibly upper 90s for locations east of the U.S. Highway 301
corridor, with dewpoints crashing through the lower 60s could create
Red Flag Conditions as southwesterly winds strengthen to 15-20 mph
with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph. Heat index values may approach or
even exceed 100 degrees on Thursday afternoon along the I-95
corridor in northeast FL, depending on just how much mixing occurs
that would lower dewpoints during the afternoon hours. Highs will
likely remain in the 80s for much of inland southeast GA, although
lower 90s could occur in the Okefenokee Swamp and low to mid 90s for
coastal southeast GA if convection does not develop until the
afternoon hours.

A narrow ribbon of deep moisture, featuring PWATs of 2 - 2.25
inches, will pool just ahead of the decelerating cold front on
Thursday, which should create scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across southeast GA and northern portions of the
Suwannee Valley. Timing of this convection remains in question, and
convection should weaken as it moves south of the I-10 corridor on
Thursday evening as it encounters the more stable air mass
associated with the retreating deep-layered ridge. An impressive jet
streak of at least 140 knots at 250 millibars (around 35,000 feet)
will be traversing the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians,
providing increasingly diffluent flow aloft, while a low level jet
of 40-50 knots at 850 millibars (around 5,000 feet) traverses
southeast GA during the afternoon hours. Model soundings indicate
that ML CAPE values will rise to the 1,000 - 1,500 j/kg range across
southeast GA on Thursday, and these factors have helped maintain a
"Marginal" risk for severe thunderstorm development (level 2 of 5)
by the Storm Prediction Center on Thursday. Convective outflows and
hot temperatures could maintain strong to isolated severe storms
along the I-10 corridor, and the SPC has thus expanded the risk
southward through the Suwannee Valley and northeast FL into the
early evening hours on Thursday.

Convection ahead of the frontal boundary will likely weaken on
Thursday evening across northeast FL, with multi-layered cloud cover
expected across our region on Thursday night as the front slowly
moves through southeast GA and likely stalls along the I-10 corridor
towards sunrise on Friday. Weak cool air advection behind the
frontal passage should drop lows back into the 60s for inland
portions of southeast GA, while lows remain in the lower 70s
elsewhere.

Fast zonal flow across the Deep South will result in the frontal
boundary stalling on Friday along the I-10 corridor. Weak shortwave
energy embedded within the zonal flow pattern will enter our area
from the west during the afternoon hours, potentially igniting
scattered convection. Low level flow will weaken, however, and the
best forcing associated with the previously cutoff shortwave trough
traversing west Texas will keep better forcing to the west of our
region. Cloud cover and weak cool air advection should keep highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s across southeast GA, while highs south
of the stalled front likely soar to the lower 90s again across north
central FL, with highs elsewhere across northeast FL generally in
the mid to upper 80s. Although timing is uncertain, better forcing
associated with the upstream shortwave trough could increase
convection after midnight on Friday night, especially for locations
north of I-10 per latest model blends. Lows will range from the 60s
for locations along and north of I-10 to the lower 70s for
north central and coastal northeast FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Continue through
Monday.

- Strong to Severe Storms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Evening.

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected, Especially Across Southeast GA.

- Slightly Cooler and Less Humid Conditions Arrive Monday Night
through Tuesday Night.

Potent shortwave troughing traversing Texas on Saturday will move
across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday and the rest of the
southeastern states on Sunday night. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal
boundary will remain in place across our area this weekend, followed
by a cold frontal passage currently slated for Monday as the
aforementioned shortwave trough gets absorbed by a progressive
northern stream trough that will be migrating across the eastern
U.S. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
across our region on Saturday, with a few stronger storms being
possible during the afternoon and evening hours, depending on cloud
cover and available instability. A higher threat for strong to
severe storms appears likely on Sunday, with the shortwave trough
providing another potent low level 40-50 knot jet at 850 millibars
(around 5,000 feet). Thick multi-layered cloud cover on Saturday
will likely keep highs in the 80s, except around 90 possible for
locations south of the stalled front in north central FL. Lows on
Saturday night will range from the mid 60s across inland southeast
GA to the lower 70s for north central and coastal northeast FL.
Highs on Sunday should nudge upwards to the upper 80s and lower 90s,
potentially fueling more instability for stronger convection late in
the day. Lows on Sunday night will only fall to the upper 60s and
lower 70s ahead of the approaching front.

Model blends keep scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in
place on Monday, but timing and intensity remain in question,
depending on when the cold front crosses our area. Highs will likely
remain in the 80s, although lower 90s could be possible along the I-
95 corridor if the cold frontal passage is delayed until the
afternoon hours. Highest rainfall amounts will the stalled front and
early week cold frontal passage will likely occur across southeast
GA, where widespread totals in excess of 1 inch appear to be likely.

Troughing aloft will then dig into the southeastern states on Monday
night and Tuesday, with high pressure building over the southeastern
states shifting winds to northwesterly on Monday night, northerly on
Tuesday morning, and then northeasterly by Tuesday afternoon and
night. Clearing skies and cool air advection following the frontal
passage will drop lows to the upper 50s for inland southeast GA and
the 60s elsewhere by Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday will range
from the upper 70s to the lower 80s across southeast GA and coastal
northeast FL to the mid and upper 80s for the Suwannee Valley and
north central FL. Radiational cooling at inland locations on Tuesday
night will drop lows to the 50s and lower 60s, with an onshore
breeze keeping coastal lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Predominantly VFR conditions will persist through the
majority of the forecast period with reduced ceilings and
visibilities this morning potentially affecting GNV due to smoke
from a fire to the south drifting into the vicinity.  Mild winds
will strengthen from out of the south and southwest for inland sites
with south-southeasterly onshore winds affecting coastal sites and
extending into CRG and JAX.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure centered near Bermuda will weaken as a cold front
enters the southeastern states tonight. Southerly winds this morning
will shift to southeasterly this afternoon, with speeds increasing
to Caution levels by early this evening both near shore and
offshore. The cold front will slow its forward progress as it
approaches our area on Thursday, with breezy southwesterly winds
expected across our local waters through Thursday evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible from late Thursday afternoon
through early Thursday evening ahead of this front, with strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms possible, mainly across the Georgia
waters. This front will slow its forward progress on Friday morning
and will then stall by Friday evening across the northeast Florida
waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be
possible from Friday afternoon through the weekend, with another
round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Sunday afternoon
and evening, well in advance of another cold front that will be
entering the southeastern states. This front will sweep
southeastward across our local waters on Monday, followed by high
pressure briefly building over the southeastern states on Monday
night and Tuesday.

Rip Currents:

Onshore winds will become breezy this afternoon, with these winds
combining with a slowly fading easterly ocean swell to create a
lower end moderate risk at all area beaches. Breezy southwesterly
winds will yield a low risk at area beaches on Thursday. Winds will
shift to northeasterly on Friday, likely resulting in a moderate
risk at area beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Elevated Fire Danger This Afternoon At Inland Locations

     MARGINALLY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
- Afternoon For North Central Florida

Dry weather is expected to prevail area-wide through Wednesday
night. An Elevated Fire Danger is expected this afternoon at inland
locations, as humidity values fall to near critical thresholds and
elevated mixing heights create high daytime dispersion values for
inland portions of southeast Georgia, where breezy southwesterly
transport winds are expected, while good to marginally high values
prevail elsewhere inland.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for locations east of the U.S.
Highway 301 corridor from Thursday afternoon through early evening
as southwesterly transport winds strengthen, with breezy surface
speeds developing area-wide by the mid to late morning hours.
Although some uncertainty exists regards to timing of showers and
thunderstorms traversing our area along with associated cloud cover,
current guidance indicates enough sunshine along the I-95 and U.S.
Highway 17 corridors for hot temperatures to lower humidity values
to near critical thresholds by early afternoon, with elevated mixing
heights creating high to very high daytime dispersion values area-
wide. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop across southeast Georgia, likely by the late morning or
early afternoon hours, with activity potentially moving southward
towards the Interstate 10 corridor by the late afternoon or early
evening hours.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible area-wide
on Friday, with an increasing coverage possible during the weekend,
potentially providing beneficial rainfall to our region. Breezy
southwesterly surface and transport winds are likely to continue
across north central Florida on Friday, creating good to marginally
high daytime dispersion values. Poor values are currently forecast
for locations north of I-10, where cloud cover and cooler
temperatures are expected as transport winds shift to west-
northwesterly.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy to areas of locally dense
fog will be possible across portions of the Suwannee Valley and
inland southeast Georgia during the predawn and early morning hours
on Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures at NE FL/SE GA climate sites for:

Wed, May 6:
JAX: 96/2012
CRG: 96/2012
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 95/2012

Thu, May 7:
JAX: 94/1977
CRG: 94/1977
GNV: 96/1955
AMG: 93/1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  65  85  64 /   0  10  60  10
SSI  84  71  90  70 /   0   0  30  20
JAX  95  68  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  90  70  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  95  65  93  71 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  95  67  92  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for FLZ024-038-124-125-132-137-138-140-225-232-
     233-237-325-333-425-433-533-633.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$