495
FXUS62 KJAX 010604
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
104 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Heavy Rainfall and Localized Flood Potential for NE FL Coast.
  Isolated Thunderstorms Possible this afternoon and evening.
  Rainfall amounts 1-3 localized amounts up to 4 for Northeast
  FL

- Lingering coastal flooding continues within the St Johns
  River, peaking at Minor flood levels.

- Dangerous surf conditions with rough, high breakers and a high
  risk of rip currents through early this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible for coastal NE FL
  this evening and overnight.

- Minor tidal flooding withing the St Johns River basin continues

- Rough surf and dangerous rip currents continue

Unsettled weather continues today and through tonight amid the
prolonged onshore breeziness. Per the latest morning analysis,
yesterday`s cold front, which pushed into SE GA last evening, is
loosely defined this morning and is progged to become more diffuse
through the day as it shifts toward NE FL. As that unfolds, an upper
shortwave slowly lifting out of the Gulf will gradually move toward
the FL peninsula this afternoon, bringing showers to much of NE FL
by the afternoon and through the evening with rain chances around 30-
50%. Given the position of the decaying cold front, buoyancy may
increase enough to support a few isolated thunderstorms are possible
south of I-10 this afternoon and into the evening as temperatures
aloft cool with the incoming upper wave.

The primary concern today isn`t the thunderstorm potential given
it`s fairly low, but there is some potential for heavy rainfall
given anomalous deep moisture being ushered into FL by the upper
wave. For context, the precipitable water (PWAT) is expected to
increase to 1.6-1.8" through this evening (mainly south of I-10)
which is around the 90th percentile and considerable for this time
of year. The concern will be for urban flooding, specifically for
north central FL where PWAT values will be near the 90th percentile
and along I-95 corridor where convergent banding may develop
particularly late this evening and through early Monday. Rainfall
totals over the next 24 hours in those aforementioned areas may push
2-3" with locally heavier amounts up to 4", with most of that
accumulating after dusk. However, despite recent showery weather,
soils aren`t quite fully saturated and the ground still has capacity
to absorb a bit more, so the decision was made to hold off on Flood
Watch headlines.

Otherwise, like the last several days, the wedged surface high to
the north will promote breezy onshore winds, leading to dangerous
surf zone conditions and continue elevated tides within the St Johns
River and it`s tributaries. Winds will be strongest at the beaches
with gusts around 20-25 mph with winds decreasing away from the
coast. Cloud cover and rain showers will keep afternoon high
readings in the mid to upper 70s for the area followed by gradual
cooling into the 60s overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Slight Risk of Flooding NE FL Coast due to Excessive Rainfall Mon

Breezy onshore winds will continue on into the beginning of the week
with showers and embedded thunderstorms developing over the forecast
area, with the strongest developments occurring over northeast
Florida and for areas east of the I-75 corridor. SPC indicates that
heavy rainfall capable of producing upwards of 2 to 3 inches may be
possible over northeast Florida, with the heaviest rainfall
developing along the coast in association with elevated PWAT values.
Prevailing flow will become more out of the southeast on Tuesday.
Daily high temperatures for the beginning of the week will be in the
upper 70s and lower 80s. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the lower to mid 60s over inland areas and in the upper 60s and
lower 70s for areas along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm potential returns next week.

- Diminishing onshore flow and improving coastal and surf zone
conditions.

Prevailing flow will shift to become more southerly by midweek as
high pressure moves off to the northeast, with showers and storms
building over the forecast area ahead of an advancing cold front
pressing in from out of the west, with drier air and more stable
conditions settling across the southeastern US by the end of the
week. High temperatures will trend above average through the end of
the week with overnight low temperatures trending to be nearer the
seasonal average by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Generally, MVFR to VFR conditions continue at NE FL terminals
early this morning ahead of a southward moving cool front. Light
showers along and behind the front will lead to periodic reductions
in visibility at Duval County airfields and at St Simons Island.
East-northeasterly winds will increase to 10-15 knots during the mid
morning hours and continue through the late afternoon. Shower
coverage will increase after 20z at KGNV and then after 00z for
coastal airfields. Heavier rain, especially at KGNV, may lead to
occasional MVFR to IFR visibility during the late evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure wedged along the coast will continue elevated
seas and small craft advisory conditions through at least Monday
evening. Though winds will decrease through Tuesday, lingering
elevated seas will remain through the middle of the week. High
pressure will remain to the north but with a weaker influence
through the second half of the week resulting in lighter winds and
lowering seas. Bouts of showers and heavy downpours will be possible
through the middle of the upcoming week, especially Monday and
Tuesday as coastal troughing develops.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Dangerous surf zone conditions continue with a High rip current risk
at all area beaches through Monday and elevated to high surf for the
entire coast. The highest breakers, around 6-8 feet will be from
Ponte Vedra south through Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A weakening cold front sinking southward will lead to breezy east-
northeasterly winds through the weekend, especially at the coast
with gusts up to 30 mph possible. Waves of showers will move through
the area today and increase in coverage today and into Monday.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible today, primarily for areas
south of I-10 corridor. Despite breezy surface and transport winds,
overcast skies will keep mixing heights low and maintain fair to
good daytime dispersions. Winds will begin to shift easterly next
week then southerly by midweek as speeds diminish.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected through Monday. Locally heavy rain is possible
across NE FL this afternoon and through Monday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal levels continue to trend downward after each successive cycle.
While elevated tides are expected to continue within the St Johns
River basin and its tributaries, water levels are likely to remain
in the 1.5-2.0 feet MHHW (mean higher high water), or at "Minor"
levels. The previous Coastal Flood Warning for the middle St Johns
River has been downgraded to an Advisory. Elevated tides are likely
to continue through Monday and possibly until Wednesday. As winds
decrease this upcoming week, natural flow direction will allow
tides to lower gradually.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  62  79  63 /  20  20  10   0
SSI  76  66  76  66 /  40  50  50  30
JAX  78  66  77  67 /  50  50  60  40
SGJ  78  68  76  69 /  30  50  70  40
GNV  80  67  80  67 /  30  50  60  10
OCF  80  68  80  68 /  50  60  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ038-125-
     132-137-225-325-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for FLZ138-333.
     High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Monday
     for FLZ233.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ452-454-470-
     472-474.

&&

$$