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000
FXUS62 KJAX 240730
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
330 AM EDT Tue May 24 2022

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST GA
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Center of the low and mid level high pressure over the western
Atlantic will be centered near 30N73W this morning with ridge axis
across the central FL peninsula. On the northwest side of the
ridge, shortwave energy is expected to ride up to the northeast
in the flow from the southwest. This energy is generally located
from the wern FL panhandle through AL and central, north GA, and
into the Carolinas. Some shortwave energy forcing is possible over
the northwest zones but otherwise the majority of the forecast
area will become more influenced by the mid level ridge as it
pushes slowly northward into northeast FL through the late aftn
and evening. Prevailing low level flow is expected to be southeast
or south-southeast which will aid in east coast sea breeze to
steadily move inland this aftn. To our north, a frontal zone will
be nearly stationary across north central GA and Carolina, perhaps
drift slightly southward late tonight. As far as convection
potential, daytime heating and relatively steep mid level lapse
rates of about 6.5 to 7 C/km will help create CAPE values near
3000 J/kg. This along with stronger winds aloft may result in a
couple of strong or severe storms, mainly over southeast GA. The
main threat will be damaging downburst winds, but some small to
marginally severe hail is possible in the strongest of storms.
POPs of 10-20 percent is painted for the coastal areas, and
increases to 20-30 percent near the Highway 301 corridor and
ramping up to 50-60 percent for the northwest zones where there is
a favored area of higher moisture and stronger convergence. Max
temps are progged at mid 80s at the beach, and then lower 90s
inland.

Tonight, isolated to scattered showers and storms inland areas
this evening will lift to the north and northwest as the mid
level ridge further builds in and increases the subsidence over
the area. Convection should be winding down fairly quickly
tonight. Lows forecast in the upper 60s inland and lower 70s at
the coast. Potential for some mainly light patchy fog inland
areas.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Friday Night]...

High pressure will be northeast of the region Wednesday through
Wednesday night. With the high to the northeast, the flow will be
onshore. This will allow the east coast sea breeze to push well
inland Wednesday. With the sea breeze pushing so far inland,
coastal areas will be more stable, with best convective chances
inland on Wednesday afternoon. This activity will then weaken and
decrease in coverage Wednesday afternoon. Highs will range from
the middle 80s at the coast, to around 90 inland. Lows Wednesday
night will range from the upper 60s inland to the lower to mid 70s
at the coast.

The high will build more toward the east northeast Thursday, with a
cold front approaching from the northwest. An increase in moisture
is expected through the day. The greatest chance for storms will be
inland, closer to approaching front. Highs on Thursday will range
from the mid 80s to around 90. The high will remain to the east
northeast Thursday night as cold front moves into western counties.
Precipitation chances will increase from to east through the night
due to the front. Lows Thursday night in the upper 60s inland to the
lower 70s coast.

The front will slowly pass southeast across area Friday into Friday
night. This will be a stormy passage, due to diurnal instability
ahead of the front, and upper energy that dives into SE US as front
passes. Highs on Friday, will be limited by precipitation coverage.
In general expect highest readings to the east based on frontal
timing. Drier air advects into region from northwest Friday night,
so lows will be cooler with readings falling into the lower to mid
60s inland, and upper 60s coast.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Monday]...

Boundary will weaken over area on Saturday, with weak high
pressure influencing the region Sunday and Monday. While
precipitation chances are expected this period, it should be
largely dry. Temperatures will be near normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Wednesday]

Mainly VFR at the TAFs except for along the coast with SSI and
possibly SGJ and CRG having Periods of MVFR ceilings through about
12Z-13Z, with an IFR ceiling not out of the question. With daytime
heating and sufficient low level moisture by 13Z-15Z, a period of
MVFR ceilings will be possible through 17Z. After 17Z, there is a
low chance of showers and storms, mainly away from the coastal TAFs,
SGJ, CRG, and SSI. The showers and storms will progressively move
northward in the mean flow from the south this aftn. Kept a mention
of VCTS or PROB30 group for inland TAFs. Light south to southeast
sfc winds near 4 to 8 kt will increase through the day, especially
after about 17Z-18Z for SGJ, CRG, and SSI to near 12-16kt and gusty.

&&

.MARINE...

Atlantic high pressure system centered east of the area will
continue the south and southeast winds, becoming breezy at times
through Wednesday. Winds increase further late Wed through
Thursday night as pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching
cool frontal system. SCEC conditions are possible Wed night and
again late Thu. Seas of mainly 2-4 feet will prevail both near
shore and offshore through Wednesday but bumping up to near 3-4
ft, possibly little higher through Friday as winds increase a bit.
Frontal system moves into the area Friday-Friday night and then
begins to stall and become diffuse/dissipate on Saturday across
the region.

Rip Currents: The combination of persistent south-southeast to southeast
winds / choppy wind waves and a small east swell will keep a low-end
moderate risk of rip currents in place through Wednesday and possibly
into Thursday. Prevailing longshore current will be from the
south to north given the southeast wind wave directions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Areas of High Dispersions Wed and Thu inland counties due to
breezy transport winds. RH values will be above critical values
through the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  89  68  90  69  88 /  60  40  20  10  50
SSI  85  74  83  74  83 /  20  10  10  10  20
JAX  90  70  88  70  88 /  20  10  10  10  20
SGJ  87  72  86  73  86 /  10   0  10   0  20
GNV  92  69  90  70  91 /  30  10  20  10  30
OCF  92  69  91  71  91 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

&&