Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 241148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
748 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

[Through 12Z Sunday]

Light winds this morning with some aerodrome sites having low
clouds and fog will linger through 14z with some intermittent
MVFR VSBYS and SCT clouds in the 200-500 ft range. All TAF sites
will be VFR after 14z through the day with light easterly flow.
Enough moisture to kick off inland showers and GNV (VCSH) during
the afternoon hours and evening isolated showers (VCSH) at SSI
after 00z, otherwise rainfall chances at other TAF sites too low
to include at this time. Another bout of low clouds, fog, and
lowered VSBYs expected after 08z through 12z tonight due to light
winds and ample low level moisture,



.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak high pressure ridge has nosed down the SE coast from the
Carolinas into SE GA and slightly more stable airmass and good
radiational cooling conds will help to develop areas of dense fog
over inland SE GA this morning and portions of the region may
require a dense fog advisory towards sunrise. Some of this fog may
develop into portions of inland NE FL but not expected to be as
dense there. Most of the inland fog should dissipate by the mid-
late morning hours. A weak shortwave disturbance over the North
Gulf Coast will track Northeast in the SW flow aloft across the SE
US later today and help to initiate scattered showers and isolated
storms over inland North FL and inland SE GA this afternoon that
will likely continue into the evening hours, otherwise over the
rest of NE FL and coastal SE GA expect diurnal heating to be
enough in the lingering light easterly/onshore flow to kick off a
few isolated showers but still overall expect less coverage than
previous days as Highs reach the lower to middle 80s inland and
around 80 at the Atlc beaches. Some shower/isolated storm activity
may linger over inland SE GA tonight, but overall expect another
night of inland fog, with some becoming dense by early Sunday
Morning with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s coast.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Sunday into Monday, very low chances for rain as drier air and an
upper ridge build across the region. However, lingering showers
will be possible Sunday morning near the Altamaha River as the
aforementioned weak shortwave lifts northeastward out of the area.
An isolated shower may be possible for Flagler, Putnam, and
Marion counties with easterly onshore flow. Temperatures will be
above climo with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s to low

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]...

Ridging over the region shifts eastward through the week.
Attention then shifts to a tropical disturbance currently in the
western Caribbean. This system has a high likelihood of developing
into a tropical depression this weekend but uncertainty lies on
track and intensity for next week. In general, for mid-week, the
system moves northward into the Gulf and will likely be swept up
in the frontal system moving through the Deep South. Regardless of
the eventual track of the system, an increase in tropical
moisture will lift northward into the area increasing the rain
potential through the week. Temperatures will be above climo for
mid-week with highs in the 80s. A cold front will push through the
area Thursday into Friday bringing cooler temperatures for the
end of the week.


Elevated seas will continue due to long period swells from TC
Epsilon and Small Craft Advisory will continue for the offshore
waters through Today for SE GA offshore waters and through Tonight
for the NE FL offshore waters. Onshore flow continues around 10
knots or less on Sunday and Monday but seas subside to 4-6 ft
offshore and 3-5 ft nearshore, still mainly due to lingering
swell. With High pressure north of the waters that will slip a
bit further offshore for Tue/Wed, the low level winds will become
Southeast around 10 knots with seas in the 2-4 ft range.

Rip Currents/Surf: High Risk of rip currents will continue today
with swells from distant Epsilon producing surf/breakers of 4-6 ft
along the NE FL coast and 3-5 ft along the SE GA coast. Some slow
subsiding of the surf for Sunday but still likely High Rip Current
Risk for the NE FL beaches and Moderate for the SE GA Beaches.



AMG  84  66  84  66  85 /  30  30  20   0   0
SSI  80  71  81  70  81 /  20  30  20   0   0
JAX  84  69  85  69  84 /  20  20  10   0   0
SGJ  84  70  84  72  84 /  20  10  10   0   0
GNV  86  67  86  67  87 /  20  10  10   0   0
OCF  86  67  88  69  88 /  20  10  10   0   0


FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Camden-
     Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for Waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60

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