Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 160658
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
258 AM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

High pressure centered to the northeast will prevail across the
region through Tonight. Moisture will begin to increase in the
continued onshore flow leading to a few more clouds, but the weather
will remain dry. Below normal temperatures through Tonight. Highs
will range Today from the upper 70s at the beaches to the lower 80s
inland. Lows Tonight will range from the mid 60s at the beaches to
the mid 50s inland.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Mid/upper level ridging will be in place from the eastern great
lakes southward into the southern Appalachians. This will support
surface high pressure to the north of the area on Monday. On
Tuesday, the high will slowly shift NE of the area into the
western Atlantic waters off the Mid Atlantic coast. A subsident
airmass will be in place with dry conditions area wide on Monday
with a few coastal showers possibly making it to the coast on
Tuesday due to increasing low level moisture and a weak inverted
troughing over the coastal waters that will move onshore and
weaken over land, but will keep silent 10 percent pops at the NE
FL coast for now as confidence is not too high. Expect elevated
easterly onshore flow that will deliver breezy winds to the coast
around 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph each day while winds
inland will be less in the 10-15 mph range.

The net result will be below normal highs at the beaches in the
upper 70s while inland areas warm up to near normal highs in the
low to mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows Monday
night will be in the low 60s inland and milder at the coast with
upper 60s. Tuesday night`s lows will be slightly milder over
inland NE FL with mid 60s to low 60s over inland SE GA while the
coast drops only to around 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The period will be marked with a persistent mid/upper level ridge
entrenched over the southeast states into the end of next weekend
while blocking shortwave energy well to our north and west to areas
along and west of the MS valley. High pressure will be positioned
to our NE over the western Atlantic waters adjacent to the Mid
Atlantic coast. Showers and perhaps a lone thunderstorm may skirt
over our north central Florida areas and southeast zones with
breezy conditions continuing as a backdoor cold front brings a
reinforcing dry air mass Wednesday night into Thursday keeping the
area dry into the weekend with perhaps a shower or two moving
through north central FL or moving onshore from the Atlantic. The
breezy conditions to be most prominent Wednesday and Thursday
with winds near the coast around 15-25 mph and gust up to 30-35
mph as the reinforcing high pressure build down slowly from the
Outer Banks of NC to directly over the region next weekend with
winds diminishing Saturday and Sunday.

High temperatures this period will begin near normal with inland
areas in the mid 80s and below normal at the coast to around 80
degrees through Friday. High temperatures will rise this weekend
to slightly above normal inland with upper 80s to low 90s while
the coast stays a little cooler in the low to mid 80s. Overnight
lows will remain near normal with mid 60s inland and the upper 60s
to around 70 degrees at the beaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

VFR conditions to continue this period. Winds will pick up and
become gusty after sunrise, then subside again after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will be northeast of the region through the upcoming
week, providing an extended period of onshore flow.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Monday
              NE FL High Today, Moderate Monday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High Dispersions are expected today due to the elevated easterly
surface and transport winds. Min RH values over inland areas of SE
GA and the suwannee river valley of NE FL will fall to near critical
thresholds, but lighter inland winds will stay below 15 mph over
these areas with fuel moisture levels over SE GA and energy release
components over NE FL not exceeding thresholds should prevent any
elevated fire danger conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  83  56  84  60  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
SSI  77  65  81  68  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
JAX  80  56  81  65  82 /   0   0   0   0  10
SGJ  79  66  80  67  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
GNV  83  57  84  61  84 /   0   0   0   0  10
OCF  84  57  86  63  86 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&


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