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000
FXUS62 KJAX 261840
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
240 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018

.Near Term.../through Sunday night/...

High pressure will remain to the East this afternoon and evening,
with remaining convection pushing into the Western portion of the
forecast area as the East coast sea breeze advances inland. While
lower clouds will clear from the East to West, high cloudiness will
overspread from the Southwest associated with Alberto. The rain
associated with Alberto will begin to overspread the region from
the South overnight as the system tracks Northward through the
Gulf. Will maintain high rain chances late Tonight through much of
Sunday. Precipitation amounts however will depend on where the
bands set up. At this point models show periods of dry slotting
from Sunday afternoon through Sunday night, so holding off on any
flood watches until see where bands set up. If a significant dry
slot does develop into Sunday afternoon allowing some clearing,
could destabilize airmass leading to the potential for strong
storms.

Breezy conditions will be expected at the beaches Sunday as well.

Temperatures will trend above normal Tonight and Sunday night, and
below normal on Sunday due to cloud cover and expected rain.

&&

.Aviation...

Everything is on track today with some convection along the
leading edge of the Atlantic sea breeze front moving inland. The
sea breeze has moved beyond all of the main fields except
Gainesville. A cell southeast of that station may clip that field
but for now will keep TS in the vicinity and amend if it looks
like it will actually impact the station. General ceilings are in
the 3 to 5 KFT range with some cumulus behind the sea breeze
front. Overnight the precipitation shield should begin to move
north with lowering ceilings and some light rain. Early Sunday
morning between 12 and 18 UTC might see some thunder with a PROB30
group included with ceilings between 1.5-2.5 KFT for the area.

&&

.Marine...

High pressure ridge will retreat to the East through Sunday as
Alberto moves North through the Gulf. Winds and seas will become
elevated Sunday as the pressure gradient becomes amplified over the
region. Alberto will reach the Northern Gulf coast Monday, then move
further inland, as high pressure builds East of the region. A front
will slide Southeast over the region late in the week.

Rip Currents: High risk on Sunday.

&&

.Short Term.../Monday through Wednesday/...

Models are depicting dry slot in banding over forecast area Monday,
as Alberto reaches the Northern Gulf coast. However, if a dry slot
does develop East of the system, instability will likely create
diurnal convection, with the potential for strong storms. So, will
maintain higher end rain chances, but periods of dry weather will
be expected for the Holiday. Rain chances will decrease Monday
night as Alberto moves further inland, however moisture will
continue to pull Northward across the region, with diurnal
instability increasing coverage Tuesday afternoon. Loss of diurnal
heating will decrease rain chances for Tuesday night, with
diurnal instability enhancing the chances once again on Wednesday.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will be expected this
period.

&&

.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Saturday/...

High pressure will build from the East Wednesday night into
Thursday, with mainly diurnal convection expected. A front is
expected to slide into the Southeastern US and stall Friday into
Saturday. This boundary will provide additional focus for convection
in addition to diurnal component. So will continue to keep above
seasonal average precipitation in the forecast into the weekend.

Temperatures will trend above normal this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  80  70  84 /  40  80  50  60
SSI  75  79  75  82 /  40  80  60  40
JAX  72  83  72  85 /  60  80  40  60
SGJ  73  82  72  83 /  60  80  40  60
GNV  71  81  71  85 /  60  80  30  70
OCF  71  82  70  85 /  60  80  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine
     FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for
     Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St.
     Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to
     Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$