Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 181348
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
948 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

...TRENDING COOLER WITH BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW AND MAINLY COASTAL
SHOWERS...

.UPDATE...

A couple troughs were stretched over the local area this morning,
one from offshore of St. Johns/Flagler counties extending inland
over Marion county...and the other stronger trough axis pressing
steadily SSW offshore of the Golden Isles, trailed by a wind shift
to the NE and increasing low level moisture.

Best chances of shower activity will focus over the coastal waters
and generally east of the Interstate 95 corridor this morning
associatedwith low level convergence and high low level moisture
with the low level troughs. NE winds will increase north to south
through the day as the trough axis near our SE GA zones presses
southward across the area, and believe this feature will be the
trigger for scattered showers and even a few tstorms this
afternoon as it slides down the NE FL coast and interacts with
still elevated low level instability over inland zones. Continued
to advertise the best chances of convection this afternoon into
the evening near the St Johns River basin and Atlantic coast,
generally south of Marineland. Although tstorm activity is
expected to be minimal given high mid level stability and dry air,
gusty winds will be possible given high DCAPE of near 1k J/kg per
the 12Z JAX RAOB, with again the best chances of storms this
afternoon and early evening over NE FL.

Temperature relief is on the way today with cooler and drier
conditions expected over SE GA under partly to mostly cloudy skies
as high temperatures rise into the upper 70s (about 10 deg cooler
than yesterday). For NE FL, although dew pts and humidity will
remain elevated due to moist onshore flow and ocean water
temperatures still in the lower 80s, high temperatures will range
in the 80s verses the low/mid 90s experienced during recent days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Periodic MVFR restrictions expected today as coastal clouds move
onshore under increasing NNE flow this morning, transition to NE
into the afternoon. Gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon for coastal
sites including SSI, CRG and SGJ. Highest chances of showers will
be at SGJ through the day, with increasing chances of VCSH at JAX,
CRG, VQQ and GNV into the afternoon. Probability of TS too low to
include in forecast at this time, but best potential will exist at
GNV and SGJ into the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds were increasing from NE at Grays Reef buoy 41008 last hour
at sustained 19G23kts with combined seas up to 4 ft trailing
secondary NE surge. Showers were starting to increase over the GA
coastal waters ahead of this second trough axis, with ongoing
showers just east of Marineland trailing first frontal surge.
Through the day, expect winds will further increase and veer more
ENE through midday with NE into the afternoon with advisory
conditions expected for all waters. No changes to current SCA
headline.

Northeast winds will increase through the day as high pressure
strengthens northeast of the region. A coastal trough will develop
over the local waters tonight into Friday, continuing elevated
onshore flow.

Rip Currents: High risk today and Friday due to elevated and
persistent onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  62  82  65 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  78  69  80  68 /  10  30  40  20
JAX  80  69  81  69 /  30  30  30  20
SGJ  82  73  82  69 /  40  50  40  30
GNV  86  70  85  68 /  20  30  40  20
OCF  88  71  86  68 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Camden-Coastal Glynn.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Enyedi


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