Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 171307
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
807 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

.UPDATE...

Wedge of cool moist air will linger this morning with frontal
boundary stalled just south of the region across central FL, the
Northeast flow at the surface is just strong enough at 5-10 mph
to keep fog mainly elevated in stratus deck around 200-400 feet
and have canceled dense fog advisory. A few light to moderate
showers will continue at times across the region with over
running flow across the boundary from the W-SW, but overall
rainfall amounts will be light today and generally less than a
tenth of a inch. With the abundant cloud cover and cool NE flow
have tweaked Max Temps down a few degrees with only 60s expected
across SE GA and the Atlc Coastal Areas, while some 70s are
expected across inland NE FL with some sunny breaks and the old
boundary drifting northward later today as a warm front. For
tonight as warm front drifts northward some limited rain chances
will be possible...mainly across SE GA, but overall main impact
will be dense fog potential with more widespread 1/4 mile or less
possible later tonight. With warm front lifting northward expect
mild temps with lows in the mid/upper 50s SE GA and lower 60s for
NE FL. Near record warmth expected on Tuesday as warm front lifts
into SE GA and scattered showers and a few storms possible as
energy moves along this feature.

Record Max Temps for Tuesday February 18th...
JAX 86/2019...GNV 89/2019...AMG 83/1956...SSI 85/1956...CRG 87/2019

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [531 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Shortwave energy was kicking out to the east early this morning,
and the upper level jet near the FL/GA border will weaken and
briefly shift southward into north central Florida this morning.
High clouds cleared across much of southeast Georgia early this
morning, but low stratus and widespread dense fog remained in its
wake due to the recent rainfall. A Dense Fog Advisory was issued
for southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida until 14Z
this morning. Elsewhere, patchy to areas of fog and broken low
stratus prevailed underneath the cirrus deck. Isolated to widely
scattered light showers/sprinkles were possible the rest of the
night, but mostly dry conditions are expected to prevail.
Temperatures were in the upper 40s to lower 50s across southeast
Georgia, and the mid 50s to low 60s across northeast Florida.

A shortwave along the north central Gulf will lift northeastward
towards the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region by this evening,
and then across southeast Georgia overnight. At the surface, a
weak surface trough was across northeast Florida, and this feature
will remain across north central Florida and the Big Bend region
through the day today. An area of low pressure was east of the
Carolinas, and the weak low will push off to the northeast today.
A weak Gulf coast sea breeze will develop this afternoon, leading
to isolated showers across the Suwannee Valley and western
interior portions of the area. A northeasterly low level flow and
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will hold temperatures in the upper
60s to low 70s across southeast Georgia, and the low to mid 70s
across northeast Florida. For north central Florida, temperatures
will rise into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

An area of deeper moisture will lift east northeastward across the
Florida Panhandle and into southeast Georgia tonight, with the
surface boundary over the area lifting northward as a warm front
into southeast Georgia. Rain chances will increase after midnight
across interior southeast Georgia, with showers becoming likely
near the Altamaha border by daybreak on Tuesday. Overnight lows
will be mild in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...

On Tuesday, a shortwave moves across southeastern Georgia as a
cold front approaches the southeastern US. Showers and storms
spread in across most of the area on Tuesday with the highest
chances for rain over southeastern Georgia. The frontal boundary
slowly dips southward on Wednesday keeping rain chances over most
of the area. Prevailing southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front
will advect in warm, moist air to the region. Temperatures will
rise above average with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the
upper 50s and low 60s.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Sunday]...

A cold front moves through on Thursday and exits the region by
Friday. Widespread showers ahead of the front come to an end early
Friday. On Friday, cold, dry air filters in behind the frontal
passage as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Mainly dry
conditions prevail for the end of the week. Some coastal showers
may be possible this weekend. Temperatures drop after the frontal
passage with lows dipping into the 30s and 40s for the end of the
week.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Tuesday]

LIFR conditions due to low stratus and/or fog will continue this
morning at the TAF sites. Conditions are forecast to improve to
MVFR by the mid afternoon, with a few TAF sites possibly becoming
VFR briefly in the late afternoon. IFR/LIFR cigs and vis are
expected again this evening. A few showers are possible near the
Duval County TAF sites this morning. Light winds this morning will
become east northeast 5-10 knots this afternoon.


.MARINE...

A surface trough will remain just south of the waters today, with
light northeasterly winds prevailing. The boundary will lift
northward as a warm front this evening and into the southeast
Georgia waters tonight. The boundary will then lift north of the
waters by Tuesday morning. A cold front will move across the
waters from the north Wednesday night and Thursday, with
northeasterly winds 20-25 knots. Another strong cold front will
then push through the waters late Thursday, and strong high
pressure will build to the north. North to northeast winds 20-30
knots will then prevail through the end of the week.


.HYDROLOGY...

Moderate river flooding continued for the Altamaha River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  67  56  77  60  73 /  40  50  50  50  50
SSI  62  57  71  60  71 /  30  10  50  30  40
JAX  70  58  81  62  80 /  30  10  40  30  30
SGJ  70  61  80  61  78 /  20   0  30  30  20
GNV  76  60  84  60  82 /  20  10  30  20  20
OCF  80  62  85  62  84 /  20   0  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&


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