Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
684 FXUS62 KJAX 070004 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 804 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Moderate Rip Current Risk this Weekend at Area Beaches - Unseasonably Dry with a Gradual Warming Trend through Monday - Patchy Fog Possible Inland Early Sunday Morning - Isolated Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms Possible Across Inland Southeast GA on Tuesday - Gradually Increasing Chances for Afternoon & Evening Showers & Thunderstorms from Wednesday through Friday && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Main Highlights This Period: - Drier Than Normal Conditions Continue - Moderate Rip Current Risk At Area Beaches High pressure will remain centered to the east northeast Tonight. It will be another dry night. Patchy fog will be possible inland. Temperatures will trend near normal Tonight. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Main Highlights This Period: - Unseasonably Dry Conditions Continue with Inland Temperatures Warming to the Low and Mid 90s. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues at Area Beaches. Sunday, low to mid level ridging will be over the region keeping air dry above the boundary layer into the mid levels. Higher moisture will intrude from the west in the afternoon with mid and high level clouds increasing as a weak shortwave moves east along the FL panhandle. Surface high pressure ridge axis will extend from Bermuda WSW across NE FL with light SE winds turning easterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze passage as it progresses inland to the US-17/Hwy 301 corridors with a Gulf seabreeze bringing light SW winds near the Suwannee River late afternoon. Highs will reach above normal inland into the low to mid 90s, but remain cooler at the coast with the Seabreeze and easterly onshore flow in the mid 80s. Winds will trend calm by 10pm become calm after sunset with mid to high level clouds persisting overnight from the NW, limiting patchy fog potential. The clouds and light SE flow above the surface will support mild lows in the low 70s inland and the mid 70s at the coast. Monday, weak high pressure pattern will remain across the area from Bermuda as a backdoor front approaches from the north by Monday night. Increased moisture and shortwave energy ahead of an upstream trough over the middle/lower MS valley will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy under mid and high level clouds and limit highs to the upper 80s to around 90 over SE GA with low to mid 90s inland over NE FL where a bit less cloud cover expected and mid to upper 80s along the coast. A widely isolated shower or T`storm is possible NW of Alma in the afternoon, otherwise the Atlantic seabreeze will progress well inland turning light SE winds to easterly. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main Highlights This Period: - Gradually Increasing Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms from Wednesday through Friday. - Summertime Humidity Returns, with Heat Index Values Climbing Above 100 Later in the Upcoming Week. The period will begin with a backdoor cold front arriving Tuesday as a sharp trough shifts east into the Atlantic with ridging aloft moving onto the eastern seaboard. Surface high pressure will build down the SE coast from the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday will move more to the ENE on Wednesday. Below normal moisture levels will remain as the high extends a ridge axis over the area with only isolated chances for showers and T`storms Tuesday, with isolated to scattered showers/T`storms Wednesday afternoon as a shortwave trough moves eastward north of the region with increasing moisture ahead of it. Easterly winds expected each day behind the Atlantic seabreeze passage. Thursday through Saturday, high pressure will extend from Bermuda across NE FL with light southerly winds turning southeasterly as the Atlantic seabreeze moves inland each day before merging with the Gulf seabreeze near I-75. With moisture levels increasing to near normal levels (PWATS 1.50-1.75 inches) and strong diurnal heating, scattered T`storms will develop as the seabreezes merge inland. Hi temperatures will begin near normal Tuesday/Wednesday with upper 80s to low 90s inland and mid 80s along the coast, then warm above normal Thursday into the start of next weekend into the low/mid 90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Heat index values of 95-100 midweek will increase to 100-105 degrees as humidity levels increase late week into Saturday. Lows will begin near normal Wednesday morning and warm above normal late week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... VFR is expected to prevail through the TAF period. East/southeast winds will become more mild and variable tonight with winds rebuilding from out of the E-SE on Sunday. && .MARINE... High pressure will be east northeast of the region through Sunday, then become centered more toward the north northeast Monday through Wednesday. The high will build more toward the east Thursday. Rip Currents: Rip current risk is moderate at all area beaches through this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... - Unseasonably Dry Weather Expected Through Monday High pressure ridging will extend across the area through Monday with dry conditions and daily Atlantic seabreeze passages moving onshore midday and inland during the afternoon hours. A widely isolated T`storm expected Monday with increasing clouds ahead of a backdoor cold front. The backdoor cold front will arrive Tuesday with isolated T`storms. Increasing moisture levels through the week with bring scattered afternoon T`storms into the start of next weekend. The dry airmass will create MInRH values 30-35 percent today and Sunday, then improve Monday into next week. Dispersions will be in the good range into next week. FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy inland fog expected late tonight into early Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 68 90 72 88 / 0 0 0 10 SSI 74 87 75 87 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 69 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 70 88 73 89 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 67 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 68 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$