122
FXUS62 KJAX 251141
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
741 AM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Extended Duration of Coastal and Marine Hazards This Week.
  Coastal Flood Warning - Moderate to Locally Major Flooding
  around Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast and Within
  the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the St. Johns
  River Basin extended through Tuesday and Wednesday. Wind
  Advisory for the Atlantic Coastal Counties extended through
  this Evening. Gale Warning for the Atlantic Waters extended
  through Monday Night. High Surf Advisory & High Risk for Rip
  Currents through most of this Week. Major Beach Erosion around
  Times of High Tide through most of this Week. Locally Heavy
  Rainfall Possible for Coastal Northeast FL through Tonight

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights: Through Tonight

- A Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate Tidal Flooding has been
  Extended through Early Wednesday Morning along the Atlantic
  Coast and within the Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of
  the St. Johns River Basin.

- Wind Advisory Continues along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns
  River through Sunday Evening for Frequent Wind Gusts of around
  45 mph.

Sharp coastal troughing remains over the area with strong high
pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic states wedging down the
eastern seaboard and weak Atlantic low pressure lingering to the
southeast. The Wind Advisory has been extended into this
evening for the gusty north-northeasterly winds along the SE GA
and NE FL coasts. Wind gusts could reach up to 40-45 mph at
times. Breezy conditions linger overnight with the continued
tight pressure gradient. Waves of scattered coastal showers will
shift onshore through the evening hours mainly for coastal NE
FL, St Johns River basin and north-central FL. A few convergent
bands may form along the NE FL coast bringing heavier downpours
and localized flooding. If these bands coincide with high tide
cycles, this could exacerbate the already significant tidal
flooding expected. Shower activity wanes overnight with a few
coastal showers shifting onshore mainly south of St. Augustine.
Meanwhile, a drier airmass (PWATs < 1 in) will keep inland SE GA
and Suwannee Valley rain-free. ...Overcast skies and breezy
onshore winds will keep highs below seasonable in the low 70s
along the coast to around 80 west of I-75. Overnight lows will
range from the mid 50s in SE GA to the upper 60s along the NE FL
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue, with Coastal Flood
  Warnings Remaining in Effect along the Atlantic Coast,
  Intracoastal Waterway and St. Johns River Basin. Moderate
  Tidal Flooding Will Continue Around Times of High Tide for
  these Locations.

- Wind Advisory Conditions are Likely to Continue through Monday
Afternoon at Coastal Locations.

- Gale Warnings Continue for the Atlantic Waters through Monday
Night.

- Dangerous and High Surf Conditions Continue, with High Surf
Advisories and a High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents at All Area
Beaches. Pounding Surf During High Tide Cycles Will Cause Major
Beach Erosion.

A highly amplified pattern aloft will continue early this week, with
a cutoff trough meandering near Bermuda, while ridging initially
extending across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
shifting slowly eastward across the southeastern states, with this
feature directing a series of shortwave troughs northeastward from
the Desert Southwest and Rockies towards the northern Plains and the
Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a slowly weakening surface high pressure
center centered over the Southern Appalachians will slowly weaken
and shift southward over the southeastern states, followed by a
reinforcing and strengthening high pressure center building
southeastward from Ontario and Quebec towards the eastern Great
Lakes and New England. Otherwise, sharp coastal troughing will
remain situated over our local Atlantic waters, keeping a tight
local pressure gradient in place across our area through Monday.

Wind Advisory criteria will likely continue for coastal locations on
Monday, where sustained speeds of 25-30 mph are forecast, with
frequent gusts of 35-45 mph possible through Monday evening. This
coastal trough will yield enough low level convergence to
occasionally drive bands of showers onshore across coastal northeast
FL, the I-95 corridor and portions of the St. Johns River basin on
Monday before a seasonably dry air mass that will be in place across
southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley advects southward on Monday
night and Tuesday, which will shift shower activity south of our
region. Low stratus cloud cover will persist across most of
northeast FL and coastal southeast GA on Monday, where highs will
mostly remain in the lower or mid 70s. A drier air mass over
interior southeast GA, the Suwannee Valley and north central FL will
allow for breaks in the stratus and stratocumulus to develop during
the afternoon hours, allowing highs to climb to the mid and upper
70s, with a few lower 80s possible across north central FL. A
gradual loosening of our local pressure gradient on Monday night
will allow for winds to decouple overnight across inland southeast
GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley, where fair skies
will allow lows to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Lows
elsewhere inland will fall into the 50s, except lower 60s for north
central FL. Breezy onshore winds keep will lows in the 60s at
coastal locations.

Breezy northeasterly winds will continue on Tuesday across northeast
and north central FL, but the drier air mass advecting into these
areas and rising heights aloft will boost highs to the upper 70s and
lower 80s inland, with mid to upper 70s forecast at coastal
locations. An isolated brief shower could still advect onshore
across coastal northeast FL, but dry weather will otherwise continue
into Tuesday night, when our local pressure gradient will begin
tightening late as strong high pressure begins to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard once again. Lows will fall into the 50s for
inland southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with 60s expected
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal Shower Coverage Increases along the I-95 Corridor as
Northeasterly Winds Again Surge from late Wednesday through Friday.

Troughing aloft and low surface pressures over the Bahamas on
Wednesday will finally shift northeastward and away from our region
late in the week. However, reinforcing high pressure centered over
New England on Wednesday morning will slowly shift offshore while
wedging down the southeastern seaboard, creating another round of
gusty northeasterly winds at coastal locations for the duration of
the upcoming week as coastal troughing remains situated over our
local Atlantic waters. This long duration wind event will maintain
significant coastal and marine impacts as high astronomical tides
associated with the midweek lunar perigee begin to only gradually
subside by Friday and Saturday. A tightening local pressure gradient
may result in another round of Wind Advisory conditions, especially
for coastal northeast FL by late Wednesday and Thursday.

Coastal troughing will re-sharpen over our local waters on
Wednesday, directing another surge of Atlantic moisture towards
coastal northeast FL. High pressure wedging down the southeastern
seaboard will strengthen low level convergence, which will advect
showers occasionally onshore from the Atlantic waters across the I-95
corridor for the balance of the work week. Gusty onshore winds will
keep highs mostly in the mid 70s along the I-95 corridor on
Wednesday and Thursday, with upper 70s and lower 80s prevailing
inland. A slightly drier air mass lingering over inland southeast GA
and the Suwannee Valley will allow lows to fall to the upper 50s to
near 60, while coastal lows generally remain in the 65-70 degree
range.

Ridging aloft developing over the Gulf late this week will begin to
build northeastward towards our region, allowing for heights to rise
locally. Although multi-layered cloud cover will continue across our
region, inland highs should rebound to the low and possibly mid 80s
by next weekend, with coastal highs remaining in the 70s due to
breezy onshore winds. Lows will trend above late October climatology
by Friday and Saturday, with 60s possible area-wide by Friday and
Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
MVFR CIGS and gusty NNE winds will dominate through the TAF period.
Winds range from 10-15 knots inland and 15-22 knots for the Atlantic
Coastal terminals with gusts to 20-25 knots inland and increasing
back to around 30 knots through the afternoon hours. Only isolated
(VCSH) activity through most of the TAF period for NE FL terminals,
but Hi Res models are suggesting another round of heavier showers
with at least MVFR VSBYS are possible in the 18-24Z time frame later
today so have added PROB30 groups to CRG/SGJ, but will monitor for
potential IFR VSBYS in this activity if it develops. NNE winds will
slowly fade later tonight after 03Z, returning to 10-15 knots
inland, but lower confidence in any lifting of CIGS to VFR late in
the TAF period, so have left MVFR CIGS for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong high pressure over the mid-Atlantic and an area of low
pressure in the western Atlantic will continue a tight pressure
gradient over area waters today into early next week. Frequent
gusts to gale force are expected to continue into Monday. The
high will weaken slowly to the north this week but winds and
waves will remain elevated above headline levels the entire
week.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories have been
extended through Tuesday night for our entire Atlantic
coastline, with surf peaking today and Monday as breakers
reach the 8-10 ft range at the northeast FL beaches and 5-7 feet
for the southeast GA beaches. High surf conditions will likely
continue for the northeast FL beaches through at least Thursday.
A high risk of deadly rip currents will continue at all area
beaches during the next week, where major beach erosion is
likely to occur around times of high tide during this extended
duration onshore wind and coastal flooding event.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories have been
extended through Tuesday night for our entire Atlantic coastline,
with surf peaking today and Monday as breakers reach the 8-10 ft
range at the northeast FL beaches and 5-7 feet for the southeast GA
beaches. High surf conditions will likely continue for the northeast
FL beaches through at least Thursday. A high risk of deadly rip
currents will continue at all area beaches during the next week,
where major beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high
tide during this extended duration onshore wind and coastal flooding
event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSION VALUES CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
  OUR AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

Scattered to numerous showers will continue to occasionally move
onshore from the Atlantic waters through Monday evening, mainly
along the northeast Florida coast, with activity extending
inland to around the U.S. Highway 301 corridor. Dry weather will
otherwise continue during the next several days across most of
inland southeast Georgia and the Suwannee Valley. Additional
rounds of coastal showers will redevelop towards midweek along
the I-95 corridor. Gusty northeasterly surface and transport
winds will continue through Monday, creating elevated nighttime
dispersion values for coastal southeast Georgia and most of
northeast and north central Florida tonight. Good daytime
dispersion values will likely prevail during the next several
days across our region. Northeasterly surface and transport
winds will briefly diminish from Monday night through Tuesday
night across inland southeast Georgia and the northern Suwannee
Valley, while breezy conditions continue elsewhere. Elevated
nighttime dispersion values will continue at coastal locations
for much of the upcoming week, as northeasterly surface and
transport winds likely re-strengthen by Wednesday and Thursday
across our area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Water levels continue to gradually fall along lower portions of
the Satilla River in southeast GA. Flood Warnings will be
discontinued later this morning as water levels fall below flood
stage at the gauge near Atkinson.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Continued strong north-northeasterly winds combined with the
highest astronomical tides of the year (Hunter`s moon) will
yield water levels reaching moderate flood levels with a few
spots reaching major flood levels during the high tide cycles
today and Monday. Peak water levels are anticipated to be 2.5 to
3.5 feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of
high tide. Northeast winds will remain breezy on Tuesday and
will likely increase again on Wednesday and Thursday, with high
astronomical tides due to the lunar perigee maintaining moderate
tidal flooding this week within the St. Johns River basin, with
minor to moderate flooding continuing during times of high tide
along the Atlantic coast.

As astronomical tide levels increase, the combination of the
high surf and water levels will create significant beach
erosion at area beaches. The long duration of this strong
onshore wind event will likely produce major beach erosion
during each high tide cycle through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  76  55  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  60  73  61 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  73  63  76  60 /  20  20  10   0
SGJ  77  68  77  68 /  70  70  50  20
GNV  78  64  79  61 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  80  65  80  62 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ038-124-
     125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ038-124-125-
     138-233-333-433-533.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-
     125-138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-
     166.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472.
     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ474.

&&

$$