Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
769 FXUS62 KJAX 221156 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 756 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf - Seasonably Hot Conditions Continue through Friday. Afternoon Peak Heat Index Values of 100-107. Possible Heat Advisory Conditions this Weekend and Early Next Week. - Moderate Rip Current Risk Continues through Thursday at Area Beaches. - Isolated Late Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms through Friday. - Scattered Afternoon and Evening Thunderstorms this Weekend and Next Week. Few Strong Storms Possible Each Afternoon, Mainly Along the I-95 Corridor. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z Thursday at the regional terminals. Isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm may develop near the northeast FL terminals after 22Z through around 03Z this evening. Confidence was too low to indicate anything other than vicinity showers at this time. Periods of MVFR to IFR visibilities are then expected overnight at VQQ. Southerly surface winds will develop by 14Z, with sustained speeds increasing to around 10 knots by 16Z. The Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes will develop early this afternoon and will progress inland, shifting surface winds to southeasterly at 10-15 knots and gusty at the SGJ and SSI coastal terminals towards 17Z. Surface winds will shift to southeasterly at the Duval County terminals after 19Z. Southerly surface winds will then resume by 00Z, with speeds remaining sustained around 10 knots at the coastal terminals through around 04Z, while speeds inland gradually diminish to around 5 knots or less by 06Z Thursday. && .MARINE... Southerly breezes will continue at Exercise Caution levels through the afternoon before easing overnight tonight as consolidated and stacked high pressure builds over the region. With light flow in place Thursday and Friday, the wind regime will be driven by the sea breeze development. A weak cold front will approach from the north this weekend and turn winds offshore with afternoon sea breeze development likely for the nearshore waters. Offshore flow and the nearby front will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorm chances. Rip Currents: Longshore currents will persist through this afternoon but surf will diminish to around 2-3 feet today. As sea breeze develops, Rip Current Risk will increase to a Moderate Level this afternoon. Surf heights continue to lower another foot by Thursday, leading to low- end Moderate risk of rip current with the afternoon sea breeze. && .FIRE WEATHER... - High Daytime Dispersion Values Inland Today. Tropical Storm Bertha will exit away from the region today across the northern Gulf waters with breezy southerly winds 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. Atlantic seabreeze will move onshore and press to US-17 through the mid afternoon as the Gulf seabreeze progresses to highway 301 late this afternoon. Winds will shift southeasterly behind the Atlantic seabreeze and southwesterly behind the Gulf seabreeze. Dry conditions will prevail with only exception over the Ocala National Forest where widely scattered thunderstorms will develop along merging Gulf/Atlantic seabreezes. Dry air may enhance a few downdrafts with any storms leading to gusty and erratic winds. A frontal boundary will approach on Thursday with widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours and again Friday afternoon. Increasing thunderstorm chances expected this weekend as the front sinks slowly into the area. Breezy surface and transport winds today along with high mixing heights will create areas of high dispersions inland across the area each day. Fog Potential and Other Remarks: Significant fog development is not expected for the next several nights. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 88 80 93 80 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 95 76 96 76 / 0 0 20 0 SGJ 90 76 93 76 / 10 0 0 0 GNV 95 74 95 74 / 10 0 10 10 OCF 94 75 95 74 / 20 10 30 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. MARINE...None. && $$