597
FXUS62 KJAX 031724
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
124 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories in Effect. Coastal Flood
  Warning for the St. Johns River Basin, Northeast FL Atlantic
  Coast & Intracoastal Waterway for Moderate Flooding Around Times
  of High Tide. Coastal Flood Advisory For Coastal Southeast GA &
  Nassau County for Minor Flooding Around Times of High Tide

- Dangerous Beach & Marine Conditions through Early Next Week.
  High Rip Current Risk, High Surf & Small Craft Advisories Remain
  in Effect. Wind Gusts at the Coast of 30 to 40 mph Later This
  Morning through Early Evening

- Locally Heavy Rainfall & Flood Potential this Weekend & Early
  Next Week. Waves of Heavy Downpours and a Few TStorms Possible
  Along the I-95 Corridor. Localized Flood Risk at Coastal &
  Normally Flood Prone, Low-lying Locations

&&

.NEAR TERM...(through Tonight)...

Local nor`easter conditions persist through tonight with enough low
level moisture and convergence on a stationary and inverted trough
hanging off the Atlantic shoreline. With the bulk of the moisture
below 700mb, drier air aloft will continue to limit thunder chances
through most of the area as the waves of quick moving showers shift
inland through the rest of the day and tonight.

Tight pressure gradients between the establish surface ridge in the
Mid Atlantic and the weak area of low pressure developing north of
Cuba will continue gusty winds along the coast which may
occasionally reach gusts near 40 mph through today.

Strong onshore winds will push ocean water into the coast and into
the St Johns River (and it`s tributaries) tonight resulting in
rising tidal levels. Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories have been
kept as they were as confidence in Moderate tidal flood impacts are
likely tonight and through the weekend, especially as the Spring-
Perigee tides increase with the approaching Full Moon (on Monday).

Thanks to the cooling from onshore flow and cloud cover,
temperatures will stay in the low/mid 80s this afternoon. Cooling
will occur inland more so than near the coast as winds will decrease
tonight. Still, lows will only be in the mid/upper 60s whereas the
low 70s will be more common along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday night)

Bouts of showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue through
the weekend with convection developing from east to west across
the forecast area, with conditions becoming more widespread on
Sunday along with gusty easterly winds with sustained speeds
rising to be about 15-25 mph and gusts of about 35 mph. There is a
potential this weekend for excessive rainfall capable of producing
local flooding conditions as PWAT values rise to be in excess of
2.2 inches as a moist unstable flow ahead of the boundary passes
over the region. High temperatures for the end of the week and
into the weekend will rise into the lower to mid 80s with
overnight low temperatures dropping down into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through next Friday)

Showers with embedded storms and breezy winds will continue on
into the beginning of next week with area-wide convection becoming
less intense as the week progresses with drier extending in from
high pressure out to the northeast rotating into the region by
midweek. Winds will build on Thursday ahead of a cold front
pressing southward from out of the north. Temperatures will
experience a slight warming trend through the coming week with
daytime high temperatures rising to be near and slightly above the
seasonal average by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Local nor`easter conditions will persist through the
weekend resulting in waves of showers pushing east-to-west off the
Atlantic and inland across terminals. Breezy to gusty northeast to
east winds will also prevail with stronger gusts up to 30 knots
developing this afternoon. Anticipate ceilings to briefly drop to
MVFR through the afternoon with passing showers, otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. Tonight, where winds lessen inland, IFR
stratus may develop again early Saturday AM. Confidence on timing
the waves of showers is low and PROB30 groups 6+ hours out are
subject to change in subsequent packages.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong northeasterly winds with gusts up to 30 knots will
continue across the local waters through the weekend. Small Craft
Advisories highlight the gusty winds and seas up to 10 feet
offshore and 8 feet in the nearshore coastal waters. Persistent
coastal troughing will lead to waves of showers pushing toward the
shoreline over the next few days but thunderstorm chances remain
on the low side. Expect onshore winds to linger through at least
Tuesday and potential extensions in time to the current Small
Craft Advisory. Another robust cold front will bring a renewed
surge on northeasterly winds during the late part of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

With persistent, strong onshore winds continuing to "trap" tides
within the St. Johns River basin combining with the approach of
Tuesday`s "Hunter" Full Moon, we expect a more widespread moderate
flood event to occur with the late afternoon, evening, and
overnight high tide cycle tonight.

Water levels may reach moderate flood levels, or around 2 to 2.5
feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW), or above normally dry
ground, along the Atlantic Coast and within the Intracoastal
Waterway (ICCW) from Mayport southward through Flagler Beach.A
Coastal Flood Warning has thus been issued for these locations along
the Atlantic Coast in northeast FL and for the entire St. Johns
River basin.

This will be an extended duration tidal flooding event, as
astronomical tides will not peak until the mid to late part of next
week. With brisk onshore flow continuing through Monday and then
potentially re- strengthening late next week, we can expect Coastal
Flood Advisories / Watches / Warnings to continue during at least
the next week and possibly longer.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  83  69 /  10  10  10  20
SSI  78  72  81  73 /  40  70  40  50
JAX  81  70  83  72 /  40  60  60  60
SGJ  81  72  83  73 /  50  60  70  70
GNV  84  69  85  71 /  30  30  40  40
OCF  83  70  83  72 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233-
     333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

     Coastal Flood Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Monday for FLZ125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$