112
FXUS62 KJAX 071148
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
748 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Locally Heavy Rain Today. Flooding Rainfall Risk Continues. Storm
Coverage Increases this Afternoon & Evening

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Today & Tuesday

- Daily Afternoon & Evening Thunderstorms

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Highlights Through Tonight:

- Unsettled Weather & Cooler Today

- Localized Flood Risk Continues

Cloudy and cooler today with waves of showers and storms as a
surface front across the Carolinas early this morning settles
farther south and extends across north FL or very near the GA-FL
state line by this afternoon. The mid-level trough across the region
will edge slightly farther south today with the axis across north
Florida. This will bring slightly drier air (PWATs falling below 2
inches under northerly flow) across southeast GA into the afternoon
while keeping richer moisture and stronger lift across northeast FL,
near and south of the surface front. Higher rain chances this
morning will focus across northeast FL and along the Atlantic coast
where onshore, breezy northeast winds develop on the northern side
of the surface front. Into the afternoon, rain chances expand east
to west as diurnal instability increases and another vorticity max
within the mid level trough pivots southward across north-central
FL. Breezy northeast winds develop north of the front along the
southeast GA coast this morning, then east-northeast winds expand
southward through the afternoon as the surface front settles farther
south of north Florida as high pressure strengthens northeast of the
region. An inverted coastal trough begins to form tonight over the
adjacent coastal waters, with elevated northeast winds along the
coast tonight and a chance of coastal showers and isolated storms.

The main short-term weather hazard will continue to be localized
flooding rainfall, especially along the coast and inland across
northeast Florida near and south of the surface front this afternoon
and into the evening. Rich, deep layer moisture with PWAT near the
daily max today of 2.3 inches at JAX combined with weak steering
flow near 5 kts will create slow moving showers and storms, that
could train near the front and inland from the coast as onshore flow
develops.

Leaned on the cooler side of temperatures today given lingering
clouds and waves of rainfall with highs in the low/mid 80s for
locations near and east of Interstate 95 and the St. Johns River
basin to the mid/upper 80s farther inland. Some of the hourly
guidance is trending about 3-5 deg cooler for many locations today,
so adjustments may be needed depending on if cloud breaks occur
later today. Tonight, lows will range in the 70s under elevated NE
winds along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...

Unsettled weather prevails through the period due to a passing
disturbance and associated front. Morning flight restrictions due to
scattered areas of low stratus will lift to MVFR then VFR through
14z as showers increase in coverage for coastal terminals.
Northeasterly flow will shift surface winds to NNE to NE this
morning as isolated TSRA begins to develop at the coast and then
shift southwestward through the afternoon. SHRA potential will
continue through the day but the primary period of TSRA will be 15z-
19z for the coastal terminals and 17z-20z at KGNV. Northeasterly
flow may lead to periods of showers through the overnight hours
along the I-95 corridor and coast, leading to periodic visibility
reductions.

&&

.MARINE...

A front stalls across north Florida today then shifts south of the
waters tonight into Tuesday as high pressure strengthens to the
northeast. A brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions
is possible mainly over the Georgia waters Tuesday as a coastal
trough develops offshore, then elevated combined seas may bring
Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to the outer waters on
Wednesday as the coastal trough begins weaken. High pressure builds
east of the local waters Thursday then extends across the Florida
peninsula Friday into the weekend with a return of westerly winds
and the afternoon east coast sea breeze.

Rip current risk increases from north to south today as onshore flow
develops with moderate risk for all local beaches. By Tuesday, solid
moderate to possibly high rip current due to stronger and more
persistent ENE onshore winds. High risk likely for all local beaches
by Wednesday with persistent onshore flow and elevated surf with
breakers 3-5 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front is expected to shift southward across southeast Georgia
Today. Low daytime dispersion expected this afternoon across north
central FL, possibly Tuesday due to more cloudiness and elevated
rain chances. Surface winds and transport winds will begin to
transition to northeast to east behind the front Today. Elevated
rain chances are expected again on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Fog Potential: Gusty and erratic winds will occur with thunderstorm
activity. Patchy inland morning fog possible each day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Coastal water levels begin to increase next week with the approach
of the New Moon on Sept 11th and breezy onshore easterly winds late
Tonight through Wednesday, with the peak winds across the local
waters and coast Tuesday. At this time, extended probabilistic
guidance keeps water levels below action stage late Tuesday through
Wednesday both along the local Atlantic coast and within the St.
Johns River basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  72  87  72 /  80  30  60  20
SSI  86  76  86  77 /  70  60  70  60
JAX  87  74  87  74 /  70  50  60  20
SGJ  85  75  85  76 /  70  50  60  20
GNV  87  72  88  73 /  90  40  70  10
OCF  88  73  88  73 /  70  30  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$