372
FXUS62 KJAX 270625
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Small Craft Advisory Today ; Moderate to High Rip Current Risk
  at Area Beaches Today through Tuesday

- Patchy Fog Inland Areas Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

- Isolated/Scattered Thunderstorms Wednesday through early
  Thursday, and again over the weekend

- Nightly restrictions in visibility from smoke near area wildfires

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Areas of smoke will continue near ongoing wildfires
- Breezy along the coast this afternoon

A cold front over NE FL early this morning shifts south of the area
by mid-morning. A stray shower may develop along the boundary. High
pressure builds down the eastern seaboard today as a cooler and
drier airmass filters in. A brief surge of northeasterly winds
develops in the wake of the front bringing gusts of 15-30 mph
with the highest gusts expected along the coast. Due to NE
winds, highs today will range from the low-mid 70s along the
coast to the low-mid 80s further inland. Winds gradually subside
tonight as high pressure center shifts southward down the eastern
seaboard. Overnight lows will be around seasonable in the mid
50s in inland SE GA to the mid 60s along the coast. Patchy fog
may develop across inland areas where winds decouple. Smoke from
wildfires will likely spread to the SW today given the breezy
NE winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Enhanced/high rip current risk Tuesday

- Generally dry and warmer conditions

Mid level (500 mb) ridging over the area on Tuesday supports dry and
warm weather and mostly clear conditions expect for some mid to high
clouds at times. A surface high pressure system will shift well
offshore with a fairly light east and southeast flow. Tuesday
night, a mid level disturbance pushes into Al and GA overnight with
surface trough developing from the FL panhandle to central GA with
sfc flow switching to more southerly. This system and troughing will
support a low chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm over
inland southeast GA northwest of Waycross. Temps: onshore flow keeps
daytime highs limited to 80-85, while inland reaches the upper 80s.
Mild overnight lows Tuesday night about 60-65.

By Wednesday and Wednesday night, the ridge aloft weakens as further
broadening of trough over the eastern U.S. and influences our local
weather. A weak frontal boundary will shift to the southeast states
and introduces some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
for parts of the area (mainly from I-10 northward) through Wednesday
night. Daytime temps climb to the upper 80s to lower 90s given
southwesterly flow ahead of the front. Warmer overnight lows in mid
60s Wednesday night. Overall, this marks a transition to a bit more
unsettled weather pattern, but coverage for convection remains
relatively low at this time. The best chance of precip does
appear to move into southeast GA Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- There are signs of more widespread precipitation on Thursday
  and during the weekend

For Thursday, a cold front moves into the area producing more
organized precip, and therefore higher chances than prior days
given an influx of moisture and low level convergence. This
front will press southward, and then south of the area Thursday
night. In the wake of the front, drier air filters in Thursday
night, with a north- northeast flow, and diminishing those
chances of rain substantially, but partly cloudy skies may still
remain. Warm highs Thursday in the mid to upper 80s with lows
quite cooler in the lower to mid 50s inland southeast GA, around
upper 50s / lower 60s elsewhere.

On Friday, winds veer a bit and weak high pressure does build in
over the area. Some model discrepancy are apparent between the GFS
and ECMWF but temps remain slightly cool compared to prior days. Due
to the uncertainty, our POPS are not zero and so there remains some
possibility of rain/showers, though overall forecast remains dry.

The pattern becomes more complex by the start of the weekend as
guidance suggest the front works back northward as surface low
development occurs in the Gulf, which lifts the front up as a warm
front. This should support increased chances of showers and
potential thunderstorms. Of course, timing and placement of the
front as well as the timing window when highest rain chances exist
are all still in question and will be resolved in the next few days.
Check on probabilities, there are high chances of a wetting rainfall
but amounts are highly variable and uncertain at this time. In any
case, where models agree is that late Sunday night is when we will
see the front and surface low move east and southeast of the area so
that for the beginning next week of Monday, rain chances will drop
off.

Temperatures will be above normal Thursday, with near record high or
two possible for northeast FL climate sites. Friday through the
weekend, temps will trend near or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail until a northeasterly wind surge and
associated low-stratus cloud deck advects in between 06-12Z and
persists through 00Z. MVFR cloud bases are expected with IFR
possible. With the wind surge, anticipate northeasterly winds 10-20
knots, higher near the coast (KSSI/KSGJ), with gusts up to 30 knots
through most of the day.

&&

.MARINE...

A cold front will pass south of the coastal waters this morning as a
brief surge of northeasterly winds develops in its wake. Exercise
Caution to marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions expected this
morning into evening. Winds subside and shift to easterly on Tuesday
as weak high pressure builds across the eastern seaboard. Winds
shift to south-southwesterly for mid to late week with the next
frontal passage.

Rip Currents:

High risk of rip currents is expected across NE FL beaches today and
Tuesday due to breezy NE winds and long period swells. High end
moderate risk prevails at SE GA beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Patchy Daytime High Dispersion Today
- High Daytime Dispersion Likely Wednesday

A cold front will press south of the forecast area early this
morning, resulting in breezy northeast winds, with sustained winds
near 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph, strongest near the coast.
Minimum relative daytime humidity values may fall to around 30 to 40
percent west of Highway 301 across southeast Georgia today, and for
Tuesday west of the Highway 301 in southeast GA and northeast FL.

Patchy high dispersion values possible over inland northeast FL west
of I-75 today, with high dispersion likely on Wednesday ahead of
another cold front passage. High daytime dispersion is possible on
Thursday as well.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Patchy fog is possible inland areas
early Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible along and north of
I-10 Wednesday and Wednesday night. Better rain chances exist on
Thursday for much of the area, and again on Saturday and Saturday
night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  55  87  62 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  72  64  78  66 /   0  10   0  10
JAX  77  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  76  65  81  64 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  84  59  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  85  62  89  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ470-472.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ474.

&&

$$