706
FXUS62 KJAX 120616
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
216 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Heat and Humidity Builds this Week through the Weekend. Heat
  Advisory For All of Northeast FL & Southeast GA Coast Today.
  Extreme Heat Watch Coastal Southeast GA for Thursday. Heat
  Advisories Possible Rest of the Area Each Afternoon and
  Evening. Record highs possible Thursday into the Weekend.

- Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Today- Thursday. Isolated
  Strong/Severe Storms Are Possible With Wind Gusts 40-60 mph

- Scattered Afternoon & Evening TStorms Friday - Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights:

- Heat Advisory in effect for Today for parts of the area

- Scattered Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Early Evening

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible with gusts up to
  40-60 mph and very heavy rainfall

Westerly surface winds continue today as the mean layer ridge into
the mid levels is over the central Gulf. Deep layer flow up through
about 500 mb is west or northwest about 10-15 kt. PWATs remain
elevated at about 2 inches or slightly higher. Guidance shows
perhaps a better chance of showers and storms this afternoon and
evening than prior forecasts. These higher chances, up to 40-60
percent, are focused in a convergence zone that appears to be
located along the I-10 corridor northward to Highway 82 in
southeast GA. Outside side of these areas, rain chances look to
be 20-40 percent. Given the amount of moisture and instability,
isolated strong/severe storms are probable especially with any
boundary collisions and mergers. Latest model soundings show
MLCAPE that may be up to 3000-3500 J/kg and the downdraft CAPE
that may be near 1000. That should be enough for gusts up to
40-60 mph. The SPC has shown a marginal risk of severe storms
for most of our area today. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms are anticipated tonight, and will eventually fade and
dissipate by midnight and will show only 10 percent chances
after midnight.

Biggest concern today will be dangerously hot temperatures and heat
index values. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s,
even at the east coast beaches. Maximum afternoon heat indices will
be around 105-110 degrees. Heat advisory remains in effect for
parts of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily Isolated to Scattered Afternoon Thunderstorms, some of which
  could be strong

- Heat Index Values near Heat Advisory levels each day. Extreme Heat
  Watch in place along coastal SE GA Thursday

High pressure over the Gulf will begin to shift towards the
northern Gulf coast late in the forecast period as a trough
shifts south along the SE coast. With the high pressure over the
Gulf, westerly- southwesterly flow will persist through the end
of the week. Scattered showers and storms along the Gulf breeze
as it pushes inland, with higher chances for locations south of
the I-10 corridor as moisture will be slightly higher over NE
FL. The Atlantic sea breeze will begin to push onshore during
the afternoon hours, with coverage of showers and storms expect
to inland from the coast of SE GA and NE FL as the sea breezes
merge.

Warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week as
daytime highs will remain in the upper 90s, close to 100F for some
locations. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for both days. An
Extreme Heat Watch is currently in place for coastal SE GA as Heat
Index values may rise to 112F to 114F Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Warm temperatures continue over the weekend, with Heat Advisories
likely on Saturday

A dipping cold front along the SE coast will allow for higher
chances of showers and storms across SE GA on Saturday, and then
south towards NE FL on Sunday. Coverage of showers and storms look
to shift further south towards NE FL on Monday, and back north as
the front drifts northward on Tuesday. The above average
temperatures will persist into the upcoming weekend, where we will
continue to have temperatures rise to the upper 90s and heat index
values rising to heat advisory criteria during the afternoon hours.
But the timing of showers and storms may keep some locations from
rising much as cloud cover may limit much heating to take place.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Mostly VFR debris clouds left over tonight which should diminish
through sunrise. Once again, diurnal heating and sufficient
moisture will lead to scattered TSRA at all TAF sites in the
18-24Z Wednesday afternoon and have TEMPO and PROB30 groups at
all terminals for potential MVFR conds along with gusty winds.
Lingering isolated to scattered showers and storms are still
anticipated from about 00z-03z Thursday. Sfc sfc winds -
westerly winds near 5 kt or less early this morning increase to
about 8-11 kt by 14-15z. Could get a temporary wind shift to
southerly or southeast to occur at SGJ and SSI around 20-21z
associated with the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...

Atlantic high pressure will shift south and westward as a trough
forms over the southeastern states. Each afternoon, the sea
breeze will shift winds southeasterly over the near shore waters
through the upcoming weekend, followed by southerly evening wind
surges which may briefly increase to near caution levels. Scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will remain possible each
day through the upcoming weekend. Some of these storms may be strong.

Rip Currents: Low surf heights at or below 2 ft and offshore flow
will likely yield a low risk at area beaches today. This pattern
will likely continue through Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

- PATCHY HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS OVER SE GA TODAY AND
  THURSDAY

Light west to southwest winds will keep the Atlantic seabreeze near
the coast each day, with lower thunderstorm coverage expected Today.
A few strong thunderstorms may produce gusty outflows with locally
erratic winds. Warm temperatures continue as highs will be in the
mid 90s inland and lower to mid 90s at the coast Today. Heat
Advisory is in place across NE FL and coastal locations of SE GA as
peak heat index values of 106-112. With warm temperatures expected
to continue through the rest of the week, heat advisories will
likely be needed. Patchy high daytime dispersions expected Today and
Thursday as mixing heights increase with increasing westerly
transport winds.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not expected, with
shallow, patchy fog late overnight limited to areas that receive
locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record high temperatures are possible Thu-Sat:

Thursday, August 13th:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 99/2023
KAMG: 100/9999
KCRG: 96/2023

Friday August 14th:
KJAX: 99/2023
KGNV: 97/2023
KAMG: 101/2023
KCRG: 98/2023

Saturday August 15th:
KJAX: 99/1956
KGNV: 100/1918
KAMG: 99/1995
KCRG: 97/9999

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  75  96  77 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  95  78  97  80 /  40  20  20  10
JAX  95  76  97  76 /  60  20  40  10
SGJ  94  77  94  77 /  50  20  40  10
GNV  94  75  95  75 /  20  30  40  10
OCF  95  75  95  75 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-
     140-220-225-232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-
     433-522-533-633.
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ153-154-162-165-166.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for GAZ153-154-165-166.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$