260
FXUS62 KJAX 281826
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
226 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...through Tonight...

Leftover showers this morning over parts of southeast GA and
northeast FL waters are holding on early this afternoon, also
sending some outflow south and southwestward. This outflow
combined with the developing sea breeze and lingering frontal
boundary over the southern part of the CWA will be the primary
focus area for convection later this afternoon and evening. Some
drier air still lingers in the upper levels and is also bleeding
into southeast GA a bit from the north and west, which will likely
keep convection to a minimum in these areas. However, PWATs are in
the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range from about I-10 southward in northeast
FL closer to the rather diffuse front, and therefore this is where
we expect widely scattered to scattered showers and t`storms to
develop this afternoon and evening. In addition to heavy downpours
and some frequent lightning, some of the lingering/mixing dry air
aloft could help boost downburst potential with any stronger
storms later today, and therefore very isolated gusts to 40-55 mph
will be possible. Otherwise, the further north and west you go
today, generally the lower your rain chances will be with a mix of
sun and clouds and high temps in the low 90s. With the more
onshore flow, areas further east/northeast will average in the
upper 80s to near 90, with some mid 80s right at the coast.

Some showers will likely linger after sunset tonight thanks to the
proximity of the front and any lingering mesoscale boundaries,
especially near the coast where chances for showers and isolated
thunder linger most of the night. Low temps will range from near
70 over interior southeast GA to low to mid 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday night...

A wet, unsettled pattern expected unfold this weekend. Broadly,
aloft a steady cyclonic flow will leave the proverbial door open to
energetic shortwaves which will tend to round the base off the
broader flow mid-level flow field. Meanwhile at the surface, a
stalled frontal zone will essentially be parked across northern FL
throughout the weekend, acting as a focus for convective initiation
each afternoon.

Increasing moisture will fuel afternoon thunderstorms areawide
Friday as the first shortwave rotates around the upper trough. PWAT
values will surge up to two inches or more. Tying that in with weak
storm motion, there will be potential for slow-moving downpours
enhancing the risk of flooding. Additionally, a pool of cold air
aloft will amplify instability as mid-level temps drop to -8C.
Increasing buoyancy and localized low-level shear along the sea
breeze may lead to mildly organized convection during the
afternoon hours, especially for coastal counties in NE FL along
the I-95 corridor. Cannot rule out the potential for isolated
waterspouts or even quick spin up tornadoes along the coastal
interface.

By Saturday drier air will begin to work farther south into SE GA,
reducing chances for rain there; however, chances will remain above
normal across NE FL where the stationary boundary will linger and
trigger another afternoon of numerous showers and storms.

A second burst of shortwave energy will rotate down and push
overhead Saturday night through Sunday. The timing of this wave
aloft will be a strong indicator if the associated surface front
will push through the entire area before instability can develop
ahead of it Sunday afternoon. Based on current guidance, it appears
there will be a window in the afternoon where sufficient instability
and shear will develop, mainly across north-central FL, and
encourage another afternoon of thunderstorms, some
potentially becoming strong.

Lowering heights, cloudy skies, and rain will put the lid on temps
with highs staying under 90 and topping out in the low to mid 80s
through the weekend (running about 5-10 degrees below normal). With
the diffuse boundary and light low-level flow over the next couple
mornings, patchy fog development will be possible and may become
potentially dense where heavy downpours occurred the afternoon
prior.


&&

.LONG TERM...Labor Day through next Thursday...

Cooler and wetter than normal conditions are set to continue through
the middle of next week with a large trough situated across the
eastern US and a negative anomaly in mid-level heights. Tough to
say which day, but there could be another day or two where there
will be an increased threat of strong to severe storms as
shortwave energy once again rotates through. Below normal temps
continue through Wednesday with increasing trends Thursday and
into next weekend as the upper trough deamplifies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

SHRA are starting to pop up near Duval County airfields as the sea
breeze moves inland, which are expected to develop and persist
VCTS through at least the next few hours. Have opted to include
TEMPO groups for all airfields except for SSI, as TSRA activity is
expected to remain to the south and west through this evening.
Stronger SHRA or TSRA will have potential for downburst winds of
30+ knots through this evening, which will be monitored over the
coming hours for potential amendments. Outside of any SHRA and
TSRA, VFR is expected to prevail with ceiling heights around 035
to 040 and northeast winds near or just under 10 knots, though a
bit higher at the immediate coast. No restrictions expected
overnight tonight, and convection Friday is expected to begin near
or just after the end of this forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A frontal boundary will continue to meander near or over northeast
FL waters through the weekend as a ridge of high pressure holds
steady just north of the boundary. Northeast to easterly flow will
continue north of the front, as well as convergent showers and
isolated thunderstorms with chances and coverage expected to
increase Friday and through the weekend. Another cold front will
move down the coast early next week bringing elevated northeasterly
winds and seas.

Rip Currents: Rip current risk is moderate through Friday as
onshore flow continues daily.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and some storms expected to develop
through the day with heaviest rainfall potential expected east of
Highway 301, but especially along the coast this morning. Rainfall
chances remains elevated into Friday and over the weekend. However,
the threat of numerous to widespread rainfall flooding remains
toward the low chance range, for the moment, so a flash flood
watch is not anticipated at this time. Nonetheless, poor drainage
areas and locations near the coast and the St Johns River Basin
are more susceptible to localized rainfall flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  87  69 /  20  10  30  30
SSI  86  76  85  74 /  30  20  40  30
JAX  90  72  87  72 /  50  20  60  30
SGJ  89  74  86  74 /  70  40  60  40
GNV  93  72  88  72 /  60  30  70  20
OCF  92  72  89  73 /  50  20  70  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$