309
FXUS63 KJKL 181904
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
204 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm front will usher in a milder and more humid air mass into
  the region later today, and this mild and more moist airmass
  should linger through the week.

- Multiple weather systems should bring rain or showers at times
  beginning today and extending into Saturday.

- There is a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe thunderstorms across
  western sections of eastern KY from late this afternoon into
  this evening. Hail and damaging winds are the primary threats
  should a severe storm occur.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Minor adjustments were made to hourly grids based on recent
observations and radar trends. For the next few hours, this led
to some downward adjustments in for northern and east sections for
hourly temperatures and dewpoints.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Update is out with modifications to PoPs mostly, and some edits to
account for the latest observed temperatures.

UPDATE Issued at 510 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

Pre-dawn update is out with an update to PoPs accounting for
latest radar imagery and surface observations. Hourly temperatures
were also updated. Sub-freezing temperatures in the sheltered
valleys appear to be rising to or just above freezing as light
rain moves over the area. Will therefore continue to monitor
closely but withhold issuing any kind of Special Weather Statement
or other statement for potential isolated trace amounts of
freezing rain over the next few hours in our northeastern counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

A series of warm fronts, successively lowering to the surface with
time, will cross the region this morning through this afternoon at
the head of a veering low-level jet with height ahead of a well-
defined mid-level disturbance crossing the region this evening and
overnight tonight. The first wave of generally trace amounts of
rain are moving across the region during the pre-dawn hours this
morning, with additional more robust rounds of rain and embedded
elevated thunderstorms as the atmosphere moistens from aloft down
to the surface later today. As a warm front moves through the area
and as a surface low approaches late this afternoon into this
evening, a few surface-based storms may develop or move into
western parts of the area. If sufficient CAPE in the area of 500
to 700 J/kg can be realized, then shear is more than sufficient to
support an isolated strong to severe storm, with marginally large
hail and strong gusty winds the primary threats.

Areas that remain mainly north of the warm front and which see
rounds of rain through the day are likely to remain cool, and some
areas may struggle to reach the lower 50s through this afternoon,
while toward the Lake Cumberland region temperatures are likely to
rise well into the 60s within the warm sector. Have thus lowered
temperatures across the north and far northeastern parts of the
forecast area a few degrees for today and tonight from the NBM
forecast, but overall temperatures will rise or remain nearly
steady for many areas this evening before dipping toward dawn
Wednesday with the warm front moving south as a weak cold front
across much of eastern Kentucky.

Mid-level heights rise Wednesday from the west with the surface
boundary becoming a stationary front situated across the area.
Thus, light rain chances will continue under a continued active
jet stream. Temperatures will remain cooler to the north and
northeast with upper 50s to lower 60s, while mid to upper 60s are
expected across southern parts of the area where warm advection
will remain strongest.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

At the open of the long term period Thursday, models and ensembles
depict 2 areas of low pressure, upstream from Kentucky. One of the
upper-level lows are located over the Southwest U.S. and the other
over the Ozarks area. Through Thursday both progress east across the
Central Plains. A warm front will move across Eastern Kentucky
through Thursday leading to showers through the afternoon and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms Thursday evening and overnight.
Storms are not expected to be severe.

By Friday morning, the warm front that was over the area yesterday
is modeled to become a stationary front, continuing to provide
showers to the area. Morning thunderstorms may be possible, but they
are not expected to be severe. With any thunderstorm, strong and
erratic gusty winds are possible under or around them.

Saturday morning, A cold front in the Ohio Valley from a passing
Canadian low will help progress the stationary front sitting over
Kentucky. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms tapering off
in coverage in in the afternoon-evening. Sunday should be pretty
quiet with the Saturday system exiting overnight. Leading to partly
cloudy skies and dry conditions.

Another upper low over the Southwest U.S. will move into the Ozarks
overnight Monday and bring another chance of rain to the area
Tuesday. Model spread has decreased some toward the end of the
forecast period. In general temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 60s for most of the area Thursday through Saturday.
Afterwards, seasonable temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s
return to the area. At night, lows Thursday and Friday night will
remain in the 50s. With a cold front expected to move through
Saturday, lows will range in the upper 30s to low 40s both Saturday
and Sunday nights. Lows gradually recover beyond that, in the mid
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025

A warm front is forecast to lift north across most of the area
through the first 6 to 9 hours of the period before stalling south
of the OH River. This boundary should then sag back south into
eastern KY through the end of the period as a series of sfc waves
move along it. A mixture of MVFR and VFR was reported at issuance
time with some IFR or lower in spots in central KY. An area of
showers and some storms near the frontal zone should continue to
progress eastward across the area, affecting areas north of JKL to
SJS initially and then one or more rounds of showers and isolated
storms moving across the remainder of the area into this evening.
Any storms could produce wind gusts to upwards of 30KT or so.
Southeast to south winds at 10KT or less should prevail outside of
storms during the first 6 hours of the period. As the boundary
sags south, winds in the more northern locations will become
generally from the north to northeast at 10KT or less and remain
southwest to west and less than 10KT over the south. In any heavier
showers or storms during the first 12 hours of the period, breif
reductions to MVFR or IFR are anticipated. Otherwise, as the
boundary sags south and southeast and the lower levels saturate,
ceilings should deteriorate to MVFR to IFR as far south as a KSME
to KLOZ to KSJS between 00Z and 06Z, and then most areas into the
IFR to VLIFR range between 06Z and 12Z. Mainly IFR or lower is
forecast to prevail to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP