348
FXUS63 KJKL 090545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1245 AM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest airmass so far this season arrives later today.

- The first snowflakes of the season are expected tonight through
  Monday, with some light accumulations possible, mainly on grass
  and elevated surfaces.

- With the snow tonight into Monday, locations above 2000 feet
  near the Virginia border are the most likely area to have any
  travel impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also touch up the PoPs through the rest of the night per the
latest CAMs guidance. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
late tonight as the cold front moves through the area, but have
left that out of the forecast, for now. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 625 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows a potent area of low pressure moving toward
the area from the Mid Mississippi Valley. Downstream of this
eastern Kentucky is seeing light winds and partly cloudy skies.
Plenty of sunshine earlier helped temperatures to warm into the
mid and upper 60s most places. Now, temperatures are running near
60 degrees on the ridges to the low 50s in the valleys.
Meanwhile, amid light winds, dewpoints are generally in the low to
mid 40s with some upper 30s noted on the ridges. Have updated the
forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 221 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

At current, high clouds remain over Eastern Kentucky, with afternoon
highs in the mid to upper 60s under light winds. However, cloud
heights lower heading into the evening. A trough from Hudson Bay,
Canada with a surface low over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will
bring a surface cold front through the area near dawn on Sunday.
Rain showers will start to move into the area from west to east,
anytime after 3 am. Overnight lows tonight remain mild in the mid
to upper 40s, with lower 40s possible west of and along the I-75
corridor ahead of the cold front.

Sunday, the high for the day will likely occur in the morning
ahead of the cold front. Arctic air behind the cold front moves
through the area later in the afternoon. Low 50s can be expected
in the morning, before temperatures cool into the low to mid 40s
by 2-3 PM, and upper 30s to low 40s by 7 PM. By 7 AM Monday,
temperatures will be in the mid 20s. As such, rain showers will
slowly transition to a rain-snow mix after sunset, before fully
changing over to snow by midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 206 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025

NBM 4.3 probabilities for 1 inch or greater snowfall late Sunday
through Monday continue to rise, with most areas along and northeast
of a Rockcastle to Bell County line now with probability of
exceedance values of 50 to near 100 percent, highest in the broad
vicinity of the Black Mountain area.

Models are in good agreement on a highly amplified upper trough
digging southeast across the area Monday, with some differences in
timing. Of particular note, all models depict a particularly strong
mid- and upper-level vort max moving southeast across the area, with
lessening amplification through the lower levels of the atmosphere.
This sets up a scenario where the period begins Monday morning with
cold advection snow showers, but transitions to a Q-G warm advection
light to moderate snow event for a few to several hours on the
immediate back end of the vort max before snow ends Monday evening
or overnight. An additional complexity with this event is that the
models are not in agreement where the strong vort max crosses
eastern Kentucky, which has a significant impact in where the period
of steadier snow occurs. The GFS is farthest north across
northeastern Kentucky while the ECMWF is farthest south, with the
remainder of models in between but perhaps leaning a bit more
towards the ECMWF. Thus, while the likelihood of accumulating snow
with at least some impacts is increasing, there is still
considerable uncertainty with what areas of eastern Kentucky will
see the highest accumulations and associated impacts. The exception
to this is of course along higher elevations of southeastern
Kentucky near/along the Virginia border, especially in the Black
Mountain vicinity, where confidence is increasing in at least a
couple of inches of snow falling. One last additional complicating
factor is that the period will be entering the CAMS window over the
next couple of forecasting cycles, which will hopefully allow
forecasters to flesh out some of the finer details with this event.

The other big story which has been well advertised at this point is
the potential for bitterly cold temperatures for early November.
Highs Monday will only reach the lower to mid-30s across the area, a
full 25 degrees or more below normal and likely cold enough for
record low maximum temperatures at both Jackson and London, so the
precipitation type will most likely remain all snow Monday into
Monday night given fairly steep lapse rates. Lows Tuesday morning
will likely fall into the lower to mid 20s, with a few teens in the
coldest locations.

Tuesday to Wednesday night, a shortwave ridge moves across the area
with 500 mb height rises anticipated Tuesday into Tuesday evening as
the pattern trends toward less amplification. However, a broad upper
trough should linger into the MS Valley and eastern CONUS to the
south of an upper low in the vicinity of Hudson and James Bay.
Temperatures will remain below normal, with highs on the order of 15
to 20 degrees below normal for Tuesday with further moderation on
Wednesday ahead of an approaching shortwave and cold front. This
front will cross eastern KY later Wednesday into Wednesday night,
but the airmass will be more moderate compared to the late
weekend/early week airmass.

Thursday to Friday, the western ridge should move east toward the
Plains while the upper low and trough in Canada move east and the
axis of this trough moves well east. Sfc high pressure will build
from the Central Conus into the OH Valley and Southern Appalachians
before shifting southeast of the area to end the period on Friday.
Upper ridging will generally dominate during the Thursday to Friday
period as well. Temperatures should be within 5 degrees of normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025

VFR conditions are currently observed at all TAF sites. Clouds
will continue to increase and lower early this morning ahead of
the inbound potent cold front. A few showers could affect the
region towards dawn with brief reductions to as low as MVFR. VFR
returns into the evening with a potential for rain and snow
showers towards midnight. Light and variable winds will increase
from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 kts later this morning as
the front gets closer. Winds switch to the northwest and continue
to increase behind the front reaching near 15 kts for the
afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC/JP
AVIATION...GREIF