449
FXUS63 KJKL 161959
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
259 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and much drier air arrives for today and Monday behind
  this morning`s cold front passage.

- Multiple weather systems could bring rain at times next week
  starting late Monday night.

- Above normal temperatures return for later Tuesday through
  Friday before cooler conditions return for next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

With much, much drier air arriving today followed by clear skies
and diminishing winds tonight, valleys should be able to decouple
and become quite cold by Monday morning. Have lowered forecast
mins considerably for the normally coldest valleys.

UPDATE Issued at 608 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

There are no major changes to the forecast with the pre-dawn
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

A much cooler and drier air mass under clear skies works its way
over the region today and persists through Monday behind this
morning`s cold front passage. The strong jet stream rounding the
upper low/trough over the Northeast US will remain in close enough
proximity to help produce northwest wind gusts up to around 20
mph through this afternoon before diminishing this evening. The
increased mixing despite cold advection will allow for highs in
the mid to upper 50s, with a few lower 60s readings possible
across the south.

Lows tonight will range from around 30 to 35 degrees across the
area as cold advection continues yet weakens with time under clear
skies.

Monday will be a bit drier than this afternoon with mid-level
heights increasing ahead of a ridge axis that reaches the area
Monday evening, along with the jet stream aloft departing
northeast through the Mid-Atlantic region. Thus, with the much
cooler start to the day along with lighter winds highs will be a
few degrees cooler than today in the lower to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 259 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

Tuesday morning, showers will continue to overspread Eastern
Kentucky as a warm front progresses into the area from the
southwest. Warm air will advect in through the day ahead of a mid-
level disturbance. Models depict a modest low level jet of 50 kts
passing through the area Tuesday evening. With model MUCAPE around
400 J/kg and sufficient bulk shear, some evening thunderstorms are
certainly possible. At current the better environment remains across
Western and portions of Central Kentucky.

Wednesday, a ridge tries to build into the area, however an embedded
shortwave will provide another chances of showers. A chance of
thunderstorms returns Wednesday evening into the overnight.

Thursday, a larger system develops over the center of the country
and ushers deeper moisture northwards from the Gulf up the
Mississippi River Valley. A warm front will push north of the area
associated with this larger system, providing another day of shower
chances.

Model spread begins to increase beyond Thursday and with it
uncertainty. However, at current heading into Friday a cold front
looks to cross the area either later in the day or early Saturday.
Rain chances tapper off Saturday.

After the larger mid-level system comes out of the Four-Corners
region in the Southwest U.S., the GFS has it progressing eastward
into the Tennessee region by Saturday and moving east of the area by
Sunday, which would lead to a quieter, likely dry day across
Eastern Kentucky. However the European model has the same system
moving off to the Great Lakes Region. While this sounds good and
all, the European is also more aggressive with the system behind
that one, taking it into the deep south, tapping into moisture from
the Gulf, on Saturday, and progressing northeast into the Mid-
Mississippi-Valley Sunday, leading to more showers across Eastern
Kentucky. A further illustration of model spread later in the long-
term period.

As far as a temperature outlook through the extended, temperatures
increase each day from the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday, reaching
the upper 60s to low 70s by Friday. Temperatures remain above average
next Saturday and Sunday, returning into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Temperatures generally cool each evening into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period, with mainly clear
skies. West northwest winds will gust around 20 kts this
afternoon, but will become light tonight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL