882
FXUS63 KJKL 151723
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1223 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be breezy and mild ahead of a cold front today. Gusts up
  to 30 mph from the southwest this afternoon, mainly for
  locations west of I-75 and near the Bluegrass Region.

- Look for a band of scattered to numerous showers to cross the
  area with cold frontal passage tonight. A thunderstorm is
  possible in the east.

- Cooler and much drier air arrives for Sunday and Monday.

- Multiple weather systems could bring rain at times next week
  starting late Monday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

The morning surface analysis shows cold front and low pressure
just off to the northwest. This is leading to a tightening
pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley and therefore an increase
in winds through the day. Overall only minor adjustments needed
toward some of the raw model blends that tend to handle the wind
gusts a bit better than NBM. The highest gust from the typical
morning mix out was 29 mph at the Powell County mesonet. Either
way 20-30 mph gust will not be out of the question through the
afternoon particularly where we see any breaks in the cloud cover.
Outside this very minor changes needed for much of the forecast
period.

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td grids. Did
also beef up the sky cover this morning per satellite imagery.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

09Z sfc analysis shows high pressure pushing up into southeast
Kentucky from the south while low pressure and a cold front it
located north of the Ohio River, but pressing south early this
morning. This pattern has allowed some low and high clouds to
develop over the region but not before a moderate ridge to valley
temperature split set up. As such, temperatures vary from the
low and mid 50s on the hills to the upper 30s in many of the low
spots that sported clearer skies through the night. Meanwhile,
amid southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph for most, dewpoints are
generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s - with some upper 40s
noted near Lake Cumberland.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
fairly good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky between 5h ridging to the
southwest and deep troughing dropping into the Northern Plains
from Canada. Energy from this northern system will slip into the
area at mid-levels within northwest flow. This process will
tighten and speed up that air flow tonight as the core of the
large trough brushes into the state with strong height falls and
the best energy targeting the eastern portions of the JKL CWA into
Sunday morning. The dynamism of this pattern remains mainly
northeast of Kentucky during the day Sunday as it focuses on
creating a Nor`Easter off the coast of New England by evening.
Given the small spread among the models, the NBM was used as the
starting point of the forecast grids with minimal adjustments
needed - mainly to include some timing and magnitude details for
PoPs and thunder chances from the CAMs consensus tonight into
Sunday.

Sensible weather features a breezy 24 hours with southwest winds
gusting to around 30 mph for much of the area during the
afternoon and evening as a cold front moves closer and then
through eastern Kentucky from the north. This will initially
support temperatures rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s -
even with just partial sunshine. The approaching cold front
presses through the area this evening and through the night with a
narrow band of higher CAPE supporting a small chance of
thunderstorms with the main band of showers - maintained by sfc
convergence with the front. The best chances for a storm will be
eastern parts of the JKL CWA and could bring down some higher wind
gusts as they pass. Cold air advection on northwest winds,
Sunday, will keep temperatures from climbing out of the 50s after
starting in the mid 40s - post frontal - with drying through the
day.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
incorporating some of the latest consensus CAMs guidance into the
PoPs and thunder chances this evening and overnight. Did also beef
up the winds by including some from the higher resolution models
this afternoon - especially west of the I-75 corridor and over
the Bluegrass Region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 500 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
add in more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures for a
couple of the nights later in the upcoming week. Also, spent some
extra effort timing the clouds and hourly PoPs or the next system
arriving on Tuesday morning allowing for non-diurnal warming and
moistening towards dawn - further limiting the wintry mix
potential as the next bout of pcpn moves into this part of the
state from the west.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The long term forecast period continues to look active across
Eastern Kentucky, with multiple boundary passages and repeated
chances for widespread rainfall. Confidence in sensible weather
specifics remains higher for the earlier portions of the period than
it is towards the middle/end of next week. There remains a great
deal of model spread for Tuesday and beyond, especially when it
comes to the amplitude of the parent synoptic features responsible
for the aforementioned active weather. The latest runs of the
currently-available deterministic forecast guidance have, however,
come closer to a consensus regarding the timing of these mid/upper
level synoptics. This timing trend yields increasing confidence that
all of the precipitation that falls next week will come in the form
of rain. Thunder chances remain uncertain, especially given the
lingering 10 to 15 degrees difference between the 25th and 75th
quartiles of MaxT/MinT NBM guidance for Tuesday and beyond. If the
trend towards a consensus continues, expect forecast confidence to
improve in the coming days. For now though, the baseline NBM data
was maintained for the majority of the long term forecast grids.

The period opens on Sunday morning within a post-frontal cold air
advection regime. A few light rain showers could linger in
Southeastern Kentucky before noon, especially in the higher terrain
along the Virginia state line, where northwesterly low-level flow
could yield marginal orographic lift. By Sunday afternoon, the
persistent advection of a cooler and drier airmass throughout the
atmospheric column will lead to clearing skies. Despite the sunnier
conditions, high temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday (mid 50s to near 60) than they were on Saturday.
Gusty winds in the 20-25mph range will keep apparent temperatures in
the 50s for much of the daytime hours on Sunday. After the sun sets,
conditions appear favorable for efficient radiational cooling,
especially in sheltered and shaded valley locales. Ridgetops should
remain above the freezing mark, but the typical cold spots can
expect to wake up to low temperatures near/just below 30 degrees.

On Monday, ridging looks to build into the forecast area, albeit
briefly. A post-frontal surface high will quickly pass through the
region and gradually shift lighter surface winds to a more easterly
orientation by Monday night. Aloft, both the broad troughing over
the NE CONUS and the midlevel ridging over the Mississippi River
Valley will propagate eastward. The former will facilitate one more
day of dry/cool air advection into the column, and the daytime hours
on Monday look seasonably cool and dry. Expect highs in the 50s
under mostly sunny skies. By Monday night, the flow aloft becomes
more westerly, setting up a regime of quasi-zonal flow with multiple
shortwave disturbances on deck upstream.

The first of these shortwave disturbances is forecast to arrive on
Tuesday morning. At the surface, it will be preceded by a warm front
moving into the Commonwealth late on Monday night. The approach of
this boundary is forecast to yield increasing cloud cover and a non-
diurnal temperature curve on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Monday night`s lows are likely to occur around midnight, and will
likely be colder in northeastern portions of the forecast area.
Clouds will reach this area last, allowing for relatively-greater
amounts of radiational cooling after sunset in shaded valleys and
hollows. However, the likelihood of sub-freezing temperatures in
these locales has decreased in accordance with the trend towards
quicker cloud cover. Widespread, regular rain chances spread over
the forecast area on Tuesday morning as the impulse approaches
aloft. Mostly cloudy skies will keep instability at bay and limit
the amount of diurnal warming. Some guidance shows a narrow tongue
of weak instability closer to the Tennessee state line on Tuesday
afternoon, but thunder was left out of the grids in this forecast
issuance, as the currently available model soundings generally look
unsupportive.

The boundary is then expected to stall out in the vicinity of the
forecast area as it loses its dynamic support aloft. Models disagree
on just how far north that boundary will get, leading to significant
model spread. Skies will likely remain cloudy on Wednesday, but
midlevel height rises point towards slightly warmer temperatures and
lesser rain chances. Quasi-zonal flow continues into Thursday,
keeping the sensible weather forecast relatively stagnant. A second,
more subtle shortwave impulse moving through the flow on Thursday
afternoon could nudge the boundary back to the north as a warm front
and bolster rain chances, but the bigger story in this time frame
will be the much deeper troughing emerging on the leeward side of
the Rocky Mountains. As that system propagates east and becomes
negatively tilted over the Plains on Friday, a regime of deeper
southwesterly flow is forecast to set up into Ohio River Valley.
Instability remains uncertain, as does the amplitude of that trough
once it reaches the Midwest on Friday evening. However, pattern
recognition suggests that this late-week system will need to be
watched closely for deeper moisture return, and rain chances remain
in the forecast through the end of the period as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025

VFR skies are the story this afternoon, but some Cigs have been on
the line at around 32 kft. There will be some clearing at times
through the afternoon, and this could be periods where we see best
mixing. A cold front arrives tonight and this will usher in lower
Cigs in the MVFR or lower range at times with heavier showers
and/or any weak thunderstorms we see. Some of these showers and/or
thunderstorms could mix down some gustier winds at times, but
these should be brief higher gusts. We have seen the increased
gust through the morning and southwesterly winds sustained around
10 to 15 knots with gusts upwards of 25 knots will continue
through the afternoon for most TAF sites. After this winds will
swing around to the west and northwest at 5 to 10 knots, with
gusts relaxing.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS/GREIF
AVIATION...DJ