103
FXUS63 KJKL 211842 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
142 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of rain showers continue through Saturday morning as a
  series of fronts move through the region. A few thunderstorms
  are also possible.

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold
  front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- Below normal temperatures are likely for the end of November and
  the start of December, although the precipitation forecast
  remains uncertain that far out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation and
radar trends. Overall, this led to no substantial changes at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts multiple synoptic-scale
disturbances influencing the Mid-Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio
River Valleys. The initial perturbation is centered over south-
central Kentucky with a quasi-stationary warm front advancing
northward through the heart of the CWA. A secondary feature is a
cold front extending southwestward from a surface low situated over
Hudson Bay. Finally, a third disturbance is a surface low that has
developed along the trailing segment of the cold front over the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Locally, light precipitation, drizzle, and
patchy dense fog, associated with the warm frontal boundary, are
currently affecting the CWA.

Throughout the remainder of the morning and the daylight hours, the
quasi-stationary warm frontal boundary will continue to impact the
area, producing rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms. While
both showers and storms are anticipated today, the threat for severe
convection is assessed as negligible due to limited CAPE and sub-
optimal vertical wind shear. However, there is a distinct threat for
instances of heavy rainfall, as forecast soundings indicate
elongated, narrow CAPE profiles coupled with PW values climbing to
1.30 to 1.40. This specific combination has prompted the WPC to
delineate the entire Commonwealth within a Day 1 Marginal Risk
(Level 1 of 5) ERO. The total QPF from today through FROPA late
Saturday morning is projected to range from 0.30 to 0.70, with
locally higher amounts possible in areas experiencing thunderstorm
activity. Frontal passage is currently forecast for late Saturday
morning, followed by the establishment of surface high pressure
building into the region for the remainder of the short-term
forecast period. Lingering upslope showers and drizzle could persist
for the far eastern tier of counties along the WV and VA borders.

The immediate forecast period will be characterized by the quasi-
stationary warm frontal boundary leading to periodic showers and
isolated storms. Temperatures will remain mild today, with maximum
values expected to reach the upper 50s across the northern sections
and warming into the mid-60s near the Tennessee border. Overnight
minimum temperatures will also remain mild, ranging from the upper
40s in the north to the mid-50s in the south. Temperatures on
Saturday are forecast to be similar as the surface high pressure
system establishes itself in the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 400 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

The long-term forecast period commences with the influence of
surface high pressure. This pattern will ensure dry conditions for
the remainder of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.
Temperatures are anticipated to remain seasonal, with maximum
temperatures on Sunday in the mid to upper 50s and on Monday in the
low to mid 60s degrees. While Sunday and Monday will feature
pleasant weather to the west, an upper-level trough will detach from
the Rocky Mountains and pivot toward the Great Lakes. Concurrently,
a warm front is forecast to advance through the region late Monday
into Tuesday, bringing increasing chances for showers and WAA.
Maximum temperatures on Tuesday are forecast to climb into the mid
to upper 60s with widespread rainfall probabilities. As the upper-
level trough and its associated surface features exit the area, a
cold front is projected to traverse the region on Wednesday. Showers
and thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of this frontal
boundary on Wednesday. Rapidly following the exiting cold front,
surface high pressure and cooler air are forecast to build into the
region in time for Thanksgiving.

The extended period will be initially dominated by surface high
pressure, but a subsequent upper-level trough and associated surface
low pressure system will track across the CONUS, leading to
increasing probabilities of showers and storms. Post-frontal surface
high pressure will then build into the region for the Thanksgiving
holiday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2025

As a warm front continues to lift north across the region, VFR
was reported near the TN border and Lake Cumberland MFR, IFR, and
LIFR was reported in areas nearer to and north of the warm front.
Areas of showers also continue moving east northeast across the
region. Some improvements to IFR/MVFR with a continuation of VFR
or MVFR near KSME with that spreading toward KLOZ is forecast over
the first 6 to 9 hours of the period. However, as the boundary
returns south as a warm front, a decrease back to LIFR and IFR is
anticipated by around 06Z in all areas. Improvement back to or a
continuation of IFR is anticipated during the last 6 hours of the
period as the boundary sags south of eastern KY. Light and
variable winds will generally prevail, though there would be some
gusty and erratic winds with any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP