252
FXUS63 KJKL 142233
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
533 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be breezy and mild ahead of a cold front on Saturday.

- Scattered to numerous showers are forecast with cold frontal
  passage on Saturday night.

- Cooler and much drier air arrives for Sunday and Monday.

- Multiple weather systems could bring rain at times next week
  from Monday night on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 416 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

Our surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight as a cold front
moves southeast over the Midwest and impinges on high pressure
over the southeast CONUS. Increasing flow and higher dew points
being carried into the area, as well as increasing clouds, will
make for a tricky low temp forecast. Southeastern valleys will be
the coldest locations, with ridges and open terrain in our
western counties be the mildest. Exactly where readings end up is
less certain than sometimes.

As mixing occurs on Saturday, more wind will be realized at the
surface. A fair amount of clouds expected would limited deeper
mixing, which would also restrain what would also be an even
breezier day. At present, southwesterly gusts generally in the
20s (mph) are forecast. The winds will also continue to bring mild
air into the area. Even with clouds, temperature should be at
least well into the 60s. If there were to be enough sun, readings
would be a bit higher.

The cold front is forecast to pass late Saturday night. Forecast
soundings suggest rain showers with convection capped in the mid
levels. Coverage is in question, with MOS data showing mainly
chance POP across the area, but gridded NBM still running much
higher. Have compromised and used mainly likely and high end
chance POPs. Average amounts are expected to be around a tenth of
an inch or less.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 533 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

The long term forecast period continues to look active across
Eastern Kentucky, with multiple boundary passages and repeated
chances for widespread rainfall. Confidence in sensible weather
specifics remains higher for the earlier portions of the period than
it is towards the middle/end of next week. There remains a great
deal of model spread for Tuesday and beyond, especially when it
comes to the amplitude of the parent synoptic features responsible
for the aforementioned active weather. The latest runs of the
currently-available deterministic forecast guidance have, however,
come closer to a consensus regarding the timing of these mid/upper
level synoptics. This timing trend yields increasing confidence that
all of the precipitation that falls next week will come in the form
of rain. Thunder chances remain uncertain, especially given the
lingering 10 to 15 degrees difference between the 25th and 75th
quartiles of MaxT/MinT NBM guidance for Tuesday and beyond. If the
trend towards a consensus continues, expect forecast confidence to
improve in the coming days. For now though, the baseline NBM data
was maintained for the majority of the long term forecast grids.

The period opens on Sunday morning within a post-frontal cold air
advection regime. A few light rain showers could linger in
Southeastern Kentucky before noon, especially in the higher terrain
along the Virginia state line, where northwesterly low-level flow
could yield marginal orographic lift. By Sunday afternoon, the
persistent advection of a cooler and drier airmass throughout the
atmospheric column will lead to clearing skies. Despite the sunnier
conditions, high temperatures are forecast to be 10 to 15 degrees
cooler on Sunday (mid 50s to near 60) than they were on Saturday.
Gusty winds in the 20-25mph range will keep apparent temperatures in
the 50s for much of the daytime hours on Sunday. After the sun sets,
conditions appear favorable for efficient radiational cooling,
especially in sheltered and shaded valley locales. Ridgetops should
remain above the freezing mark, but the typical cold spots can
expect to wake up to low temperatures near/just below 30 degrees.

On Monday, ridging looks to build into the forecast area, albeit
briefly. A post-frontal surface high will quickly pass through the
region and gradually shift lighter surface winds to a more easterly
orientation by Monday night. Aloft, both the broad troughing over
the NE CONUS and the midlevel ridging over the Mississippi River
Valley will propagate eastward. The former will facilitate one more
day of dry/cool air advection into the column, and the daytime hours
on Monday look seasonably cool and dry. Expect highs in the 50s
under mostly sunny skies. By Monday night, the flow aloft becomes
more westerly, setting up a regime of quasi-zonal flow with multiple
shortwave disturbances on deck upstream.

The first of these shortwave disturbances is forecast to arrive on
Tuesday morning. At the surface, it will be preceded by a warm front
moving into the Commonwealth late on Monday night. The approach of
this boundary is forecast to yield increasing cloud cover and a non-
diurnal temperature curve on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Monday night`s lows are likely to occur around midnight, and will
likely be colder in northeastern portions of the forecast area.
Clouds will reach this area last, allowing for relatively-greater
amounts of radiational cooling after sunset in shaded valleys and
hollows. However, the likelihood of sub-freezing temperatures in
these locales has decreased in accordance with the trend towards
quicker cloud cover. Widespread, regular rain chances spread over
the forecast area on Tuesday morning as the impulse approaches
aloft. Mostly cloudy skies will keep instability at bay and limit
the amount of diurnal warming. Some guidance shows a narrow tongue
of weak instability closer to the Tennessee state line on Tuesday
afternoon, but thunder was left out of the grids in this forecast
issuance, as the currently available model soundings generally look
unsupportive.

The boundary is then expected to stall out in the vicinity of the
forecast area as it loses its dynamic support aloft. Models disagree
on just how far north that boundary will get, leading to significant
model spread. Skies will likely remain cloudy on Wednesday, but
midlevel height rises point towards slightly warmer temperatures and
lesser rain chances. Quasi-zonal flow continues into Thursday,
keeping the sensible weather forecast relatively stagnant. A second,
more subtle shortwave impulse moving through the flow on Thursday
afternoon could nudge the boundary back to the north as a warm front
and bolster rain chances, but the bigger story in this time frame
will be the much deeper troughing emerging on the leeward side of
the Rocky Mountains. As that system propagates east and becomes
negatively tilted over the Plains on Friday, a regime of deeper
southwesterly flow is forecast to set up into Ohio River Valley.
Instability remains uncertain, as does the amplitude of that trough
once it reaches the Midwest on Friday evening. However, pattern
recognition suggests that this late-week system will need to be
watched closely for deeper moisture return, and rain chances remain
in the forecast through the end of the period as a result.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance. There were some light
showers skirting the northern edge of the forecast area, but
very little or no precip should make it further south. No
restrictions are expected as we head into the evening and the
showers depart. Low end VFR ceilings are forecast to develop from
north to south overnight and on Saturday morning. Won`t rule out
some incursions into MVFR territory with this, but the threat
isn`t great enough to include in any TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL