053
FXUS63 KJKL 191817 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
117 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds linger today with patchy drizzle at times across the
  northern two thirds of the region.

- Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with
  a seasonably mild and moist airmass in place.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1103 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Low clouds linger across most of the area, with some breaks at
times near the TN border as a front has sagged south across much
of eastern KY, but has for now stalled over the Cumberland Valley
vicinity. Some patchy drizzle may be falling at times form the
low clouds/status and reduced visibilities still remain on ridges
from stratus build down. North of this boundary with low clouds
lingering, temperatures will rise only a few degrees through the
day. Locations in the north should reach the low to mid 50s while
near the TN border along/south of the boundary should reach the
mid to upper 60s. This boundary should finally settle south of
eastern KY this evening and tonight.

Hourly grids were freshened up based on recent observation and
satellite trends.

UPDATE Issued at 546 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Widespread low clouds and fog have developed this morning in the
wake of overnight rain and the passage of a weak cold front.
Visibility seems to be highly variable, and webcams suggest a lot
of valley locations are seeing just low stratus. Have elected to
cover this with a Special Weather Statement for areas of fog with
localized dense fog instead of a Dense Fog Advisory. Will continue
to monitor trends.

Sprinkles have been added to the forecast for much of the day, as
sprinkles and/or drizzle can be expected at times from the
persistent stratus deck.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Increasing mid-level geopotential heights this morning through
tonight with near-surface weak cold advection and a moist air mass
behind a weak cold front will mean widespread low stratus with
fog development this morning, with widespread stratus that is
expected to persist through much if not all of the daytime hours
and into the nighttime hours tonight. Given high confidence with
this occurring, we have lowered highs today a few degrees,
especially across the northern half of the forecast area. To the
far south, some clearing could occur in the afternoon that allows
temperatures to rise well into the 60s, but even here forecast
highs were lowered slightly in relation to the NBM.

By Thursday, extensive high clouds and increasing warm advection
will allow for the stratus to burn off and/or retreat north toward
the Ohio River, with highs rising to the upper 50s to lower 60s
in the north and remaining in the upper 60s in the south. An
ejecting shortwave moving toward the OH/TN valley region from a
large upper low over the Southwest CONUS and northwestern Mexico
will push rain into the area along and north of a quasi-
stationary front situated to our south and west, especially late
in the afternoon and into the early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025

An active long-term period is expected, beginning Thursday night
with a warm front moving north through the area and rain
overspreading the region from the west in association with a
system ejecting from a large low over the Southwest CONUS and
northwestern Mexico and moving across our region Friday. As the
warm front moves slowly north with time, moisture and instability
will increase along with temperatures allowing for some
thunderstorm activity with localized pockets of heavy rain at
times from late Thursday night through early Saturday. At this
times, there are no significant flood concerns expected as
precipitation will not be continuous across the region, though
widespread QPF of 0.75 to 1.25 inches is expected.

Models are in agreement in a shortwave passage later Saturday with
a likely cold frontal passage bringing briefly cooler and drier
conditions to the region for Sunday, before warm advection begins
again early next week with another system ejecting out of the
southwest CONUS and moving east and northeast across the eastern
CONUS. Thus, rain probabilities increase again through early next
week, typically one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Extensive low clouds and fog on ridges remain across northern
sections of the area including KJKL, KSJS, and KSYM, while some
breaks or at least in the way fog was in place near KSME and KLOZ
and point south. Northern locations are at or below airport mins
while from near KLOZ and KSME south IFR and MVFR was observed.
Through the afternoon, some minor improvements are generally
forecast and a category improvement may occur. However, by 00Z
and after, the boundary that has been lingering over the region
will have sunk south and low clouds and stratus build down may
occur once gain and IFR ceilings and or vis should return near or
north of a KSME to KLOZ line including KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS. as
the night progresses. During the last 6 hours of the period,
gradual improvements to MVFR or VFR are anticipated. Winds will
remain light through the period at all terminals.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP