693
FXUS63 KJKL 131414
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
914 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After near normal temperatures today, a warming trend is
  expected to end the week, temperatures reaching 10 to 15 degrees
  above normal by Saturday.

- The next chances for precipitation, in the form of rain showers,
  will come late in the day on Friday.

- More widespread rain chances enter the forecast ahead of a cold
  front on Saturday night. A few thunderstorms with gusty winds
  cannot be ruled out as the front passes.

- There is a significant degree of forecast uncertainty for Sunday
  and beyond, but the pattern looks to remain active into the
  middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025

Pulled in the most recent weather observations and data to freshen
up the forecast. No major changes were made, and the forecast
remain on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 540 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025

Early this morning, an upper level trough extend from Central and
eastern portions of Canada into the Mid Atlantic and NOrtheast
with the axis of this trough east of the Southeast US coast.
Meanwhile, an upper level ridge was centered over the western
Gulf/Mexico area and the axis extended to the Four Corners
vicinity to MT to near the Alberta and Saskatchewan border. This
is resulting in northwest flow aloft over the OH Valley between
the trough to the north and east and the ridge to the west.
Meanwhile an upper level trough extended from Northwestern Canada
southwest to west of the Pacific northwest to west of the CA
coast. The southern portion of this trough had closed to an upper
low off the Northern CA coast. At the surface, a ridge of high
pressure extended from the TN Valley/Southern Appalachians to the
upper MS Valley. A few cirrus was passing through the Northwest
flow aloft. The sfc high has supported a ridge/valley temperature
split across the region with many low lying and valley locations
having decoupled and having dropped off to the upper 20s to low
30s while ridgetop temperatures and areas of more open terrain
were in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Today into early Friday, a period of gradual 500 mb height falls
are anticipated across eastern KY as the trough to the north and
northeast departs further to the north and east and the axis of
the upper level ridge gradually shifts to the western Gulf to
Southern and Central Plains to the upper MS Valley vicinity. A
weak shortwave may near the region in northwest flow aloft while
an upper low and associated trough moving across western sections
of Canada reaches Saskatchewan and then Alberta on Friday while
the trailing shortwave trough moves across parts of the Northern
Rockies and nears sections of the Northern Rockies and Dakotas by
late Friday. Preceding the upper trough moving across western to
Central Canada and northern sections of the Conus, a sfc low
should near northern Manitoba by late Friday with the associated
cold front reaching the upper MS Valley to Lower OH Valley later
tonight and into Friday. At the same time, the center of the sfc
ridge of high pressure will gradually become centered over the
Appalachians tonight and then shift to the eastern Great Lakes/mid
Atlantic states to the Southeast.

Dry weather, but slightly cooler highs are anticipated today for
eastern KY not far from normal for mid November. Mixing during the
day should result in sufficient dewpoint depressions for min rh
this afternoon in the mid and upper 20s to mid 30s percent range
but winds will be light under high pressure. Sfc high pressure
starting to shift east of the area and the 500 mb height rises
favor another ridge/valley temperature split tonight with upper
20s to lower 30s valleys and upper 30s to near 40 on ridges and in
more open terrain locations. A modest increase in moisture is
expected on Friday with dewpoints reaching the 40s to near 50 and
PW to the 70th to 80th percentile by late afternoon early
evening. Meanwhile, the subtle shortwave in northwest flow may
combine with the approaching warm front to result in a few
sprinkles or isolated showers by late Friday afternoon to early
evening. Temperatures should moderate to roughly 5 to 10 degrees
above normal on Friday into the 60s for all but the highest
terrain above 2500 feet elevation which should hold in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 515 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025

The long term period is expected to begin with an upper level
ridge centered in the western Gulf with the axis of this ridge
extending across the Southern and Central Plains to the western
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper low is expected to be in place
near the Maritimes with a trough south east of the eastern
seaboard. A shortwave or two in northwest flow between these
systems is expected to be passing through portions of the OH
Valley and into the Appalachians. Meanwhile, further north an
upper low is expected to be tracking near the Saskatchewan and
Manitoba border with an an associated shortwave trough south into
the MT/Northern Rockies vicinity. A closed upper low is progged
to be located off the CA coast at that point as well while
another upper low/trough should extend form the Gulf of Alaska
vicinity south into parts of the Pacific. At the surface, the
period should begin with a ridge of sfc high pressure extending
from Quebec to the Southeast Conus continuing to depart while a
warm front is expected to extend into eastern KY from a surface
low in the northern Manitoba vicinity and a cold front should
extend into portions of the Northern Plains to Norther Rockies.

Friday night to Saturday night, the shortwave in northwest clouds
is expected to combine with the warm front lifting through the
area for some sprinkles or isolated showers on Friday evening with
perhaps greater coverage of showers for a time later Friday night
near the Tug Fork/WV border vicinity. Otherwise, the shortwave
ridge axis is expected to shift across eastern KY on Saturday
while the upper low in Canada meanders to south/southwest of
Hudson and James bays. The sfc low is expected to trek to the
Ontario/Quebec border vicinity late Saturday into Saturday evening
while the trailing cold front will move south south across the
Great Lakes and portions of the Central Conus and into the OH
Valley region. As the upper low moves further into Ontario and
nears Quebec a trailing shortwave trough axis will move into the
Great Lakes and OH Valley while the trailing cold front moves into
and perhaps across all of eastern KY by dawn on Sunday. Moisture
is expected to increase ahead of this boundary with dewpoints into
the 50s averaging around the mid 50s. Limited CAPE is anticipated
ahead of the front late Saturday or Saturday evening and into
Saturday night but shear should be rather ample. There are some
elevated convective probabilities in some of the AI ECMWF and GFS
guidance and SPC has highlighted general thunder for most of
eastern KY with a marginal risk on Day 3 from a few of the
northeastern Counties northeast across sections of the mid to
upper OH Valley.

A gusty line of convection or line segments of showers will be
possible along or in advance of the boundary and SPC has
highlighted areas of northeastern KY into sections of WV, OH, and
PA in a marginal risk for severe storms and this threat appears to
be more substantial northeast of eastern KY where instability
should be a bit more favorable. Ahead of the cold front on
Saturday, temperatures will rise to roughly 10 to 15 degrees above
normal, in stark contrast to temperatures experienced earlier in
the week.

Sunday to Monday night, a upper trough will have developed into
the eastern Conus by the start of the period to the south of an
elongated upper low in Canada. Further south and west, an upper
level ridge is expected to remain centered in the western Gulf
vicinity and initially extend across the Gulf with an axis of
ridging into the Southern Plains to WY and Northern Rockies
vicinity downstream of the upper low near the CA coast as the
weekend begins having moved toward sections of the Great Basin.
Meanwhile, the next upstream trough over sections of the Pacific
should be approaching BC and the Pacific Northeast at that point.
The cold front is expected to sag south of eastern KY Sunday into
early Monday. However, by Monday, sfc low pressure should begin
to organized to the lee of the Rockies in sections of the Central
Plains/High Plains and in response to the upper low weakening to
an open wave and moving across sections of the Central and
Northern Plains/Central by late Monday, a sfc low should track
across the Central Conus to the vicinity of the Ozarks by late
Monday night while the downstream boundary which crosses the area
to end the weekend returns northeast as a warm front that nears
eastern KY during that time. A relative lull in rain shower
chances during what should generally be an active extended period
should occur from midday Sunday and into Monday when shortwave
ridging approaching and sfc high pressure should dominate. This
pattern should favor a moderate ridge/valley temperature split on
Sunday night with temperatures also not far from normal highs for
Sunday and Monday. The remaining shortwave trough should move from
parts of the Central Conus and into the OH Valley region on
Monday night though guidance varies in the depth and timing of
this wave. However, this shortwave may interact with the frontal
zone nearing eastern KY for chances of convection. Some thunder
cannot be ruled out Monday night, mainly in the more southern
locations nearer to the approaching boundary.

Tuesday and Wednesday, the shortwave trough that should be over or
nearing the OH Valley and Appalachians early Tuesday should shift
east of eastern KY by late Tuesday or Tuesday night and a period
of height rises behind that may occur for a time before the next
upper level low/trough moving across the western Conus begins to
near the Plains/Central Conus and disturbances in southwest flow
ahead of it may interact with a the frontal zone in the vicinity.
The sfc low moving along it may weaken with this frontal zone
tending to become stationary as midweek approaches due to upper
ridging building from the Gulf into the Southeast Conus.
Uncertainty with individual weaker shortwaves is below average in
this pattern, though the sfc system nearing the area and the
passing shortwave should result in a bit higher chances for
showers on Tuesday as compared to Wednesday when mid level height
rises/shortwave ridging could limit the extent of any convection
to end the period. Guidance has considerable spread as far as
temperatures as midweek approaches as is the case for Monday. NBM
deterministic highs were near normal while diurnal ranges should
be limited with the boundary in the vicinity and anticipated
clouds and convection at times.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period as
high pressure moves across the OH Valley into the Appalachians.
Mid and high clouds are expected to cross the region at times.
Winds will initially be light and variable and then once the
nocturnal inversion mixes out around 15Z, winds are expected to
be west to northwest at less than 10KT. Winds will again diminish
around 00Z to light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP