005
FXUS63 KJKL 071946
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
346 PM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will inch higher through midweek, with humidity
  creeping higher Wednesday and Thursday.

- A cold front moving into the area late in the week will give us
  our next expectation of showers and thunderstorms Thursday or
  Thursday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 346 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026

So far this afternoon there`s been nothing more than fair wx cu
and some thin ci. NAM fcst soundings still show some potential
for deeper convection over our southern counties until early
evening. However mid levels are very dry and there`s nothing in
the way of discernible features to support convection. That being
the case, think that anything would be very sparse and short-
lived. Have continued with just a slight chance of sprinkles in
the forecast, realizing that it`s not impossible for extremely
isolated measurable rain to occur. Any activity would dry up with
loss of instability this evening.

In the big picture, surface high pressure near the Great Lakes
late today will move off the Mid Atlantic coast by Wednesday
morning, ridging westward toward the Appalachians. This will allow
our low level flow to shift toward the south, but it will still be
crossing the Appalachians through most of the period and not
traversing the gulf. That will hold off significantly higher dew
points through the short term period. At upper levels, troughing
currently departing the East Coast will give way to weakening high
pressure/ridging approaching us from the west. This will give dry
weather. The climbing geopotential heights and southerly low
level flow and will support slightly warmer temperatures on
Tuesday. Good radiating conditions should still allow the coolest
valleys to fall to near 60 each night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026

The period begins Wednesday morning with stout ridging over the
southern half of the CONUS, while an active zonal jet stream remains
across the far northern CONUS. The ridge will progressively get
shunted south and east through Thursday and into Friday as a
progressive shortwave pushes a cold front southeast into the
southern Ohio Valley. However, it appears that the shortwave may
outrun the surface front, leaving it to decay over or north of
eastern Kentucky into the weekend as mid-level ridging builds back
over the region.

The NBM was kept for the extended period, with the exception of
adding modest ridge-valley splits for Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of the approaching system. Considerable uncertainty
arises in the greater synoptic pattern as the coming weekend
progresses into next week, particularly concerning the evolution of
a cut-off upper level low over the Pacific Northwest this weekend,
with downstream implications over the Midwest and Ohio Valley as
ensemble systems become increasingly out of phase with each other.

WPC has introduced a Slight Risk ERO for Thursday into Thursday
night across much of WV and into northeastern and far eastern
Kentucky. This is as the approaching system Thursday into Friday
will be intruding into a warm and humid environment characterized by
PWs peaking in the 90th-95th percentile (according to the LREF)
across much of the area northwest of the Cumberland Mountains. The
orientation of the front, the perpendicular upslope wind component
on the backside of the front, and the timing of arrival of heavy
rain and/or thunderstorms at or near peak heating all suggest some
potential for flash flooding potential along the windward side of
the Appalachians.

PoPs are continued into the weekend as it appears the front decays
over the region to end the week, with the potential for additional
shortwaves and possibly weak surface lows to initiate at least
spotty showers and thunderstorms across the area before mid-level
heights likely rise Sunday into Monday of next week.

There is high confidence that temperatures remain above normal
through the period, with the coolest day (and closest to normal
readings) coming Friday with the upper trough overhead. Highs will
generally be in the mid to upper 80s with lows mostly in the 60s,
though a few lower 70s readings are possible Wednesday night in the
warm humid environment ahead of the approaching front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026

VFR conditions are present shortly before TAF issuance, and aside
from localized late night/early morning valley fog (not expected
at TAF sites), will be predominant through the period. Won`t
completely rule out very isolated showers this afternoon or early
evening southwest of KY Rt. 15, but the probability at KLOZ and
KSME is too low to explicitly address in TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL