211
FXUS63 KJKL 300733
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
333 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and dry weather is expected for the Labor Day weekend,
  with only a small chance of showers or a thunderstorms over
  southeastern counties Sunday and Monday.

- Look for mild, sunny days and cool nights through Labor Day,
  with tonight likely being the coldest of the period.

- The dry spell ends heading into the middle of next week.
  Scattered showers (30 to 50 percent chance) are possible
  Tuesday, with higher rain chances following for Wednesday and
  Thursday.

- Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to remain under an
  inch for most locations.

- Below normal temperatures are expected on average through the
  period, with the coolest conditions mid to late next week behind
  a relatively strong cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025

The jet stream remains unusually far south of the region for this
weekend, with remnant mid-level troughing extending from the Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, low-level high pressure
builds over the Great Lakes region during this time.

A relatively tranquil period is in store for this weekend, but not
completely. The period begins today with generally sunny skies,
but a few clouds and sprinkles cannot be completely discounted
down toward the greater Middlesboro area later this morning into
early afternoon as an upper disturbance and remnant frontal
boundary provide some lift. The overall environment remains quite
dry, so any activity will have a challenging time producing any
shower activity that can reach the surface.

Attention then turns to the next system arriving Sunday on the
backside of an upper trough and mid-level cut-off low over the
Mid-Atlantic region. An instability axis develops along a frontal
boundary that gets pushed back west across the Central and
Southern Appalachians by increasing easterly surface flow to the
south of a strengthening 850-mb high pressure over the Great
Lakes. It looks like any potential impacts on eastern Kentucky
would be confined to the far eastern/southeastern counties along
the Virginia border, mainly in the form of isolated to scattered
showers but a thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out.
Otherwise, the other impact would be increasing cloud cover with
the reversing flow regimes between the mid- levels and low levels
of the atmosphere.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025

The remnant front or inverted trough continues to get pushed west
and northwest into eastern Kentucky Monday and Tuesday as low-
level flow gradually shifts from easterly to a more southerly
direction, allowing for increasing moisture into the area. This
combined with a continued weakly cyclonic flow regime aloft will
support daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially so
by Tuesday as a mid- to low-level southwesterly jet is modeled to
develop over the area allowing for increasing moisture transport
up the west side of the Appalachians.

Meanwhile, significant changes begin to occur by mid-week aloft
over the CONUS, with a strengthening ridge over the Pacific
Northwest allowing for a significant amplification of the pattern
across the eastern two-thirds of the country, with the jet stream
consolidating northward around a strong cut-off low moving to
the Upper Great Lakes region by Thursday. Models then suggest the
potential for the associated surface cold front to move across
the region Thursday into Friday before bringing a cool and dry air
mass to the region for the second half of Friday into the
following weekend. Trends will continue to be monitored for
rainfall chances, whose trajectory has gradually trended upwards,
while temperatures, especially daytime highs, continue to trend
quite cool for the first week of September. The latest NBM 90th
percentile rainfall amounts for the 72-hour period ending at 8 AM
Friday across eastern Kentucky have trended upwards to a range of
1.25 to 2.00" inches now, so there is at least a low potential
for a beneficial soaking rainfall for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025

TAFs are VFR with this issuance and are forecast to remain VFR
through much of the period as surface high pressure continues to
dominate. Overnight valley fog is forecast to develop through 09z
and could leak into some of the valley terminals; however,
confidence is low, therefore opted to leave fog out of all TAF
sites. Winds are forecast to pick up around 18Z/Saturday but will
slacken off toward 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC