981
FXUS63 KJKL 242015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
415 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry weather is expected through the weekend.

- Warmer temperatures and a greater potential for showers and
  thunderstorms return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026

Surface high pressure which passed to our north is now slipping
away off the New England coast, but an inverted trough remains
along the western slopes of the Appalachians. Our dew points are
still running generally below 70, which is slightly lower than was
expected in our southeast. With high clouds also being persistent
for much of the day in the southeast, this has so far prevented
much in the way of convective precip from popping up. Having
already reached peak heating, have pulled back on the POP near the
VA border for the early evening and removed thunder.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough aloft is over the mid Mississippi
Valley, where warm air advection is ongoing. As the wave
progresses east southeast, warm air advection and moisture aloft
should spread into the JKL forecast area tonight, especially in
our southwest counties, and persist on Saturday/Saturday night.
Can`t rule out some showers with this, but they would have to
overcome drier air below, and the POP has been kept low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026

The long term forecast will be dominated by upper level ridging
centered over the Great Plains, with troughing along the East Coast.
Eastern Kentucky will find itself sandwiched between these features,
leading to an extensive period of northwesterly flow aloft. A series
of shortwaves will traverse this flow, providing a chance for
multiple rounds of showers and storms (potentially in the form of
MCS activity). However, confidence in the timing or intensity of
these impulses remains low, and impacts to the forecast area will
remain heavily dependent on the evolution of upstream convection,
increasing uncertainty.

On Sunday, increasingly northwesterly winds will work to pull in
better quality moisture from the Midwest, allowing dewpoints to
climb into the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area by
Sunday afternoon. Concurrently, mostly clear skies and increasing
influence of the upper level ridge aloft will allow temperatures to
rise into the mid 80s across the forecast area, allowing for
moderate instability to build, although in the absence of forcing to
drive convective initiation, rain chances will likely be relegated
to an isolated storm or two at most through the daytime hours, if
that. Some models are attempting to hint at isolated to perhaps
widely scattered storm chances in our southernmost counties on
Sunday afternoon, and the thermodynamic environment will certainly
be capable of supporting convection. That being said, many models
depict height rises at the same time, corresponding with a modest
eastward expansion of the ridge aloft, which would inhibit
convection. For now, NBM PoPs were retained, keeping rain chances
below 10% across the forecast area through the evening.

Forecast uncertainty increases overnight Sunday into Monday as
convective coverage increases in the Midwest, with some model
guidance suggesting MCS type activity may approach the forecast area
as soon as very early Monday morning. That being said, the most
favored outcome at this time is that skies remain relatively clear,
owing to surface high pressure lingering on the periphery of the
forecast area. For now, a modest ridge/valley temperature split was
introduced on Sunday night, in addition to typical valley fog, to
account for this more likely solution.

Monday and Tuesday appear to offer the most robust storm chances of
the period, with additional impulses moving through northwest flow
aloft and a continued signal for MCS activity somewhere in the Ohio
Valley. Although there is limited agreement in the timing or
intensity of these waves, machine learning guidance has generally
highlighted a broad area of severe potential from the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley early next week, largely driven by the potential for
damaging wind gusts associated with any convective complexes. This
risk remains highly uncertain, and the current SPC Day 4 and 5 15%
contours do not currently include our area (with Mondays risk area
north of Kentucky in the Great Lakes region and Tuesdays risk more
focused on the Mid Atlantic). That being said, the modeled
environment does seem to support the potential for MCS activity to
propagate southeast into the forecast area, and should diurnal
timing of these waves also be favorable, the parameter space will be
capable of supporting strong to severe storms. LREF mean surface
based CAPE is in the range of 1500-2000 J/kg on Monday and Tuesday
evening, and LREF mean 0-6 km shear is again in the neighborhood of
30-40 kts, enough to support severe weather. Depending on how many
rounds of showers and storms we receive, flash flooding could also
potentially be a concern, although this remains similarly uncertain;
the Weather Prediction Center has assigned a Marginal (Level 1/4)
Risk for Excessive Rainfall on both Monday and Tuesday to account
for this possibility. In short, there will be multiple chances for
rain early next week, and upstream convective evolution, in addition
to wave timing, will dictate impacts to the forecast area.

Following potential activity on Tuesday into early Wednesday, rain
chances will decrease again as moisture declines courtesy of
increasingly northerly to northeasterly winds. High temperatures
will generally rise into the upper 80s each day, with surface high
pressure building in the vicinity of OH/WV.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026

There is a small potential for a few showers/thunderstorms near
the VA border this afternoon, and a few showers near the TN border
on Saturday. Localized valley fog could also affect some locations
late tonight and early Saturday, especially in southeast KY. Any
of these things would bring localized sub-VFR conditions.
However, VFR conditions will prevail across the area most of the
time, and that is all that will be forecast at TAF sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...HAL