116
FXUS63 KJKL 301916
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
316 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and dry weather is expected to continue through the
  Labor Day weekend, with only a small chance of showers or a
  thunderstorms over southeastern counties Sunday and Monday.

- The dry spell ends heading into the middle of next week.
  Scattered showers (30 to 50 percent chance) are possible
  Tuesday, with higher rain chances following for Wednesday and
  Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

- Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to remain under an
  inch for most locations.

- Below normal temperatures are expected on average through the
  period, with the coolest conditions mid to late next week behind
  the relatively strong cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025

Another quiet day on the eastern front! The switch from very wet to
very dry is becoming more noticeable with each rain-free day. But
the temperatures and humidity have been very pleasant and should
persist.

While high pressure is expected to remain at the surface just to our
north through the overnight, we will have a visitor aloft. An upper
level low pressure system will continue to pass from SE Canada into
Maine and the northeast Atlantic Coast overnight. As it moves, a
secondary shortwave within the overarching troughing pattern is
expected to pass through the state. Flow will be northerly aloft,
which will continue to advect cooler temps into the region. However,
the shortwave may cause just enough instability/lift to produce some
clouds during the second half of the overnight. Cool temperatures
have lent themselves to fog development in the deepest valleys
overnight, however each day of drier air, the scope is a little less
overnight.  Furthermore, the cloud cover will likely hamper some of
the later fog development in the east. Tried to account for this in
the forecast. The cooler air sinking into the valleys may also lend
itself to a ridge/valley split in temperatures - but again, clouds
may prevent it from being larger. Currently have lows generally
forecast in the 40s to low 50s.

Going into the day Sunday, the shortwave will continue to deepen,
becoming a upper level low by the early afternoon, centered across
WV. Here it will basically park itself through Sunday night,
allowing N to NE flow to continue across eastern Kentucky.
Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will also persist in almost
the same location, which is quite interesting, not something you see
very often. Ultimately this will cut down on the potential for
convection once more, since the instability cannot make it all the
way to the surface. However, it won`t stop it altogether. For
instance, Sunday afternoon/evening does show an area of possible
convection developing across the highest mountains in Appalachia,
just east of the state, as northeast flow will actually cause
upslope precipitation in these locations from moisture off the
Atlantic. It is not clear if the convection will make it far enough
over the mountains to actually impact eastern Kentucky, however,
there is enough model support that the latest NBM is picking up on
low-end chance pops in the afternoon right along the eastern CWA
border. Any showers that develop are then expected to dissipate
heading into the overnight as the subsidence takes hold once more
and both clouds and lift dissipate.

Sunday night will be another par-for-course night, with subsidence
at the surface keeping skies mostly clear, and NE flow at the
surface and NW aloft keeping temperatures seasonably cool, in the low
50s. NE flow may actually limit some of the deepest valley fog, but
not enough to not put at least patchy fog in the forecast for most
of the valleys overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2025

A 580 dam ridge will center over the Mid Atlantic on Monday,
allowing high pressure to persist over eastern Kentucky. A few
showers may form in areas bordering Virginia, but any rainfall
will produce negligible accumulations. Afternoon highs will be
slightly below normal: in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The synoptic pattern will begin to change on Tuesday as a
shortwave forms along the southwest periphery of the
aforementioned ridge. This system will translate into eastern
Kentucky in the evening hours, providing just enough lift to
support a few isolated showers in the southern half of the
forecast area. Although precipitable water values will be on the
rise, appreciable rainfall is not anticipated with Tuesday`s
showers.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, a deep upper level trough will eject out of
Manitoba into the Great Lakes Region. This system will phase with
the aforementioned shortwave on Wednesday, which will allow much
more efficient moisture flow into the region. Precipitable water
values will hover around the 90th percentile by the afternoon
hours. Showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the majority
of the area. Around a half an inch of rainfall is forecast, but
locally higher amounts are anticipated. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms is anticipated on Thursday as a strong cold
front, attendant to the upper level trough, sweeps across the
region. Behind Thursday`s FROPA, much cooler air will filter into
eastern Kentucky. Friday`s high temperatures will be in the upper
60s to low 70s. Expect high pressure to settle over the region
for the upcoming weekend; keeping temperatures below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR conditions continue to prevail at the TAF sites for the duration
of the 18z issuance period. As a surface high pressure system
remains in place over the forecast area, winds are forecast to be
light and variable at the terminals. A few METARs have occasionally
reported gusts between 10 and 15 knots this afternoon, but since
these observations are not persistent, the TAFs reflect a light and
variable wind forecast. Sky observations are mostly clear this
afternoon, but a few cumulus clouds are visible on satellite imagery
near the TN/VA state lines. These diurnally-driven clouds and the
aforementioned wind gusts will diminish after sunset, but an
approaching mid/upper level shortwave disturbance will allow
scattered high clouds to spread across the area overnight. These
clouds give credence to the idea that any fog that develops
tonight will be confined to the deeper river valleys and may
hamper it from becoming as dense. Therefore, fog was once again
left out of the TAFs, and vsbys are poised to remain VFR through
Sunday afternoon.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SCHLESSIGER
AVIATION...MARCUS