474
FXUS63 KJKL 202320
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
720 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot and muggy weather continues through Monday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts are
  possible Monday afternoon and evening, mainly south of the
  Mountain Parkway.

- A stalled front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms
  Monday night through Wednesday, with isolated flash flooding
  possible from repeated heavy downpours.

- Seasonably cooler and drier air arrives Thursday and persists
  through the weekend, with daytime highs in the 70s and
  nighttime lows in the 50s, except in the upper 40s for some
  cooler valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 240 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Increasing zonal flow will continue to wear down the stout upper
ridging that has brought the recent near-record warmth to eastern
Kentucky. Of note through the short-term period is a shortwave
that crosses the area Monday night with an attendant west-
southwesterly mid-level jet streak just ahead of it, which will be
moving over the area near peak heating during the day Monday. At
the surface, a cold front will cross the area from north to south
Monday evening through the overnight.

A stray storm or two cannot be completely ruled out for the
remainder of this afternoon, but RAP soundings across the area show
a pretty notable warm layer which is more likely to keep convection
capped, resulting in isolated to widely scattered showers.

Passing mid- to high-level clouds are expected tonight, with valley
fog expected in the typical locations. Lows will be in the 60s,
coolest in the deeper and more protected valleys and hollows.

The aforementioned shortwave and jet streak will modestly increase
wind shear across the area Monday, while also providing synoptic
lift. Any areas that see strong surface heating should see at
least moderate destabilization/instability develop, which should
combine with the 20 to 25 kts of wind shear to produce at least
some risk for severe storms. Strong damaging winds would be the
primary threat with any severe storm(s). The latest Day 2 Severe
Weather Outlook lowered eastern Kentucky from a Slight Risk to a
Marginal Risk.

The threat for showers and storms will continue into the evening and
overnight, with a general decreasing trend, as an upper tropospheric
wave will still be approaching the area from the west providing
synoptic scale lift despite the surface cold front moving south
across the area Monday evening into the overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

Model suites are in reasonable agreement for much of the long-term
period. The period will start with more of a quasi-zonal upper level
pattern across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will be
in place and quasi-stationary across Kentucky. This feature, along
with eventual help from an upper level shortwave will keep the
weather active through Thursday. The best chances of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a
marginal risk (1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall Tuesday and
Wednesday. However, it would likely take multiple rounds of heavy
rainfall to produce any flash flooding issues. This stormier
pattern will help keep afternoon highs much cooler than of late,
with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 for Tuesday, and cooler for
Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 70s. Then by the end of
the week, we will see an upper-level closed low setup along the
eastern seaboard. This will result in more of a blocking pattern
across the CONUS. The good news for the Ohio Valley is surface
high pressure to the north will will usher in much cooler and
drier weather for the end of the week into the weekend, as we will
see northerly flow at the surface. Afternoon highs will be much
more like fall, topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF
period.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to dissipate with the loss of
daytime heating, and VFR conditions are expected to continue
through much if not all of the TAF period. An approaching
disturbance and the arrival of a cold front from the north late in
the TAF period necessitates the inclusion of prevailing and TEMPO
groups or SHRA and TSRA beginning around 21z Monday, and these
will bring the chance for sub-VFR conditions.

Fog will develop tonight, primarily in the deeper river valleys,
and will diminish by ~14z Monday as daytime heating commences.
Any fog is not expected to impact the TAF sites at this time.

Southwesterly winds will again increase as daytime heating
increases, with sustained winds of 3 to 7 kts developing after
15z. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any
showers and/or thunderstorms in the afternoon Monday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...CMC