418
FXUS63 KJKL 171113
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
613 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry air persists through today, with a milder and more
  moist air mass returning Tuesday through the remainder of the
  week.

- Multiple weather systems should bring rain at times beginning
  Tuesday and extending through the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 434 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025

Pre-dawn update is out with just an update on hourly temperatures
for this morning. Otherwise, the forecast is in great shape and no
substantive changes were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025

Northwesterly confluent mid-level flow on the upstream side of a
large upper trough exiting the Northeast US today will continue to
support a cool and dry air mass over the region today and tonight.
After a chilly morning, especially in the valleys, temperatures
recover into the lower to mid 50s, with light northwesterly winds
in the afternoon.

An approaching system quickly approaches the region late tonight
through Tuesday, with the associated mid-level jet streak outrunning
a downstream shortwave ridge that moves over the area late
tonight. Clouds and moisture will build over the area tonight,
with the potential for some light rain in some areas, but low-
level dry air will likely keep most areas dry. A warm front moves
into and across the region Tuesday, likely crossing the entire CWA
and located over far northeastern Kentucky and southern West
Virginia by the end of the short-term period at 00z Wednesday.

The passing shortwave and approaching surface low will be
weakening while approaching, but the mid-level shortwave will
still remain fairly pronounced. As a result, models depict a good
push of moisture and weak mainly elevated instability across the
area Tuesday, resulting in categorical precipitation chances
across much of the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, with embedded
thunderstorms a good bet. Temperatures will likely rise through
the day Tuesday and into Tuesday evening with the strong warm
advection associated with the warm front passage.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025

An active, mild, and generally unsettled long-term period is
expected with an active jet stream and persistent warm advection
for much of the period, with increasing uncertainty for this
weekend especially about the strength and timing of a likely cold
front passage.

Temperatures likely remain steady or slowly rise through the 50s
during the overnight Tuesday night with the region entrenched
within a warm sector with a decent low-level southwesterly jet
stream, with rain chances decreasing into Wednesday as the
shortwave departs to the east and moves out into the western
Atlantic. However, warm advection continues with an active jet
stream within zonal flow on the north side of a flattened ridge
across the Gulf and and Deep South. These embedded disturbances
within a continued robust warm advection pattern and upslope west-
northwesterly flow will keep low precipitation chance in the
forecast through late Wednesday into Thursday, when precipitation
probabilities increase again ahead of another disturbance
ejecting northeast from northern Mexico and the southern U.S.
toward the Ohio Valley for Thursday into Friday.

Models, and their ensemble systems, are struggling with the
upstream upper pattern from Friday through next weekend, with the
NBM overall trending slightly warmer from run to run given
decreasing confidence in the timing and strength of a likely cold
frontal passage this weekend, with a large probabilistic envelope
in the NBM temperature forecast from Friday night onwards.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 613 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025

VFR conditions due to mostly clear skies along with light and
variable winds are forecast for the vast majority of this TAF
window. Clouds increase late in the TAF window with an approaching
warm front. Thus, a PROB30 group is included for MVFR cigs and
-RA at the end of the TAF period for KSYM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC